Adjusting for Beta Bias: An Assessment of Alternate Techniques: A Note

This paper tests the effectiveness of techniques proposed by: Scholes-Williams; Dimson; Fowler, Rorke, and Jog; and Cohen, Hawawini, Maier, Schwartz, and Whitcomb to control for bias in beta estimates from thin trading and price adjustment delays. Each technique produces beta estimates that reduce the amount of this bias, but the amount of reduction in the best case is only 29%.     

COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF CONSERVATION PROGRAMS: THE HOOD RIVER EXPERIMENT

Economic cost-effectiveness analysis is a systematic approach to assessing benefits and costs associated with different actions. This analysis, as applied to energy conservation programs, is complicated greatly by the existence of intangible benefits and costs. A further complication occurs when the input values are uncertain. Such inputs include the useful lives of measures installed, the appropriate discount rate, and the expected levels of savings. This paper shows how one can incorporate input uncertainty and some intangibles into the cost-effectiveness analysis calculations. The Hood River Conservation Experiment provides the framework for analyzing these issues and serves as a pilot program for future conservation implementation.     

Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims

This paper derives an arbitrage-free interest rate movements model (AR model). This model takes the complete term structure as given and derives the subsequent stochastic movement of the term structure such that the movement is arbitrage free. We then show that the AR model can be used to price interest rate contingent claims relative to the observed complete term structure of interest rates. This paper also studies the behavior and the economics of the model. Our approach can be used to price a broad range of interest rate contingent claims, including bond options and callable bonds.     

Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market

An intertemporal general equilibrium model relates financial asset returns to movements in aggregate output. The model is a standard neoclassical growth model with serial correlation in aggregate output. Changes in aggregate output lead to attempts by agents to smooth consumption, which affects the required rate of return on financial assets. Since aggregate output is serially correlated and hence predictable, the theory suggests that stock returns can be predicted based on rational forecasts of output. The empirical results confirm that stock returns are a predictable function of aggregate output and also support the accompanying implications of the model.     

Long‐Term Return Reversals: Overreaction or Taxes?

Long‐term reversals in U.S. stock returns are better explained as the rational reactions of investors to locked‐in capital gains than an irrational overreaction to news. Predictors of returns based on the overreaction hypothesis have no power, while those that measure locked‐in capital gains do, completely subsuming past returns measures that are traditionally used to predict long‐term returns. In data from Hong Kong, where investment income is not taxed, reversals are nonexistent, and returns are not forecastable either by traditional measures or by measures based on the capital gains lock‐in hypothesis that successfully predict U.S. returns.     

Difference Systems in Financial Futures Markets

Many financial futures markets allow substitutions for the par grade of security at delivery. Substitutes are deliverable at premiums or discounts—“differences” in commodities parlance—to the futures price. The rule that establishes these differences is called a difference system. This paper characterizes financial futures market equilibrium with yield-based difference systems and investigates particular systems in use. The major finding is that currently used difference systems effectively limit deliverable supply in the futures markets and lead to futures prices which understate the cash market price of the par security.     

OLD WINE FOR NEW BOTTLES: PUTTING OLD GROWTH THEORY BACK IN THE NEW

This paper shows how the mechanisms of endogenous growth can readily be incorporated within old growth theory, thereby resolving the principal impasse that stymied old growth theory. The key mechanism is the technological progress function which was originally developed by Kaldor (1957). The growth effects of monetary and fiscal policy operate through three channels. The first is the 'portfolio composition' channel, with policy serving to alter the money-capital mix of portfolios; the second is the money in the production function channel, with policy serving to alter the relative use of money and capital as inputs; the third is the money in the technological progress function channel, with policy affecting the dynamic allocative efficiency of investment via its impact on the level of financial intermediation. Since money and capital both enter the technological progress function. policies that affect the demands for money and capital affect the steady state rate of growth.     

THE IMPACT OF EUROPEAN CONSUMER LAW IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

In this paper the authors describe the consequences of European consumer law for British consumers. After an analysis of some of the difficulties which have been faced by the United Kingdom in coming to terms with its new-found status within a federal system, the article goes on to describe the progress which has been made with the programme of implementation. The third part looks at some EEC proposals which are in the pipeline at the moment and comments on some of the consequences which the prospect of EEC legislation can have for domestic reform. Finally, the authors examine the actual enforcement of EEC consumer law through the criminal process and the effects upon civil processes.     

How Do Firms Respond to Political Uncertainty? Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

We examine the joint response to political uncertainty along two margins: changes in real activity and voluntary disclosure. We focus on within-firm variation in exposure to ex ante competitive U.S. gubernatorial elections using data on preelection poll margins and firms’ state exposures. Despite real activity falling in the years leading up to a close election, we find that voluntary disclosure increases both in frequency and content, including mentions of risk in filings that reference states holding elections. Our tests use a decomposition of 8-K filings into real activity and voluntary disclosure to address the endogenous complementarity between these two responses. These results hold when using alternative ex ante measures of political uncertainty based on term-limited incumbents, historically competitive offices, or state legislature gridlock. Both effects of political uncertainty are stronger for firms in highly regulated industries and weaker for those least exposed to the local market, linking the real activity and disclosure responses to uncertainty.     

The Impact of Open Data on Public Procurement

We examine how open procurement data affect the competitiveness of award procedures and the execution of government contracts. The European Union recently made its historical procurement notices available for bulk download in a cohesive and user-friendly database. Comparing government contracts above and below EU procurement size thresholds, we find that, after the open data initiative, procurement officials are more likely to award treated contracts through open bidding. In cross-sectional analyses, we document variation in the open bidding effect consistent with two underlying mechanisms: (1) increased scrutiny by NGOs and investigative journalists and (2) learning by national procurement regulators. However, treated contracts are also more likely to experience costly modifications because the shift to open bidding introduces rigidity that limits officials’ discretion in selecting suppliers based on private information. Overall, our evidence indicates that open procurement data promote competitive bidding but lead to contracts with weaker execution performance. These inferences also hold in an alternative open data setting.