Bank Credit Cards: Consumer Irrationality versus Market Forces

Why are bank card interest rates sticky? One explanation is bank card consumer irrationality, a potentially significant market failure requiring government intervention. Alternate explanations focus on efficient market forces. The 1989 Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances data are not consistent with the consumer irrationality hypothesis. The data are consistent with a market-based model of demand for balances and suggest that consumers may rationally eschew search because small outstanding balances imply low returns to search.     

The Impacts of the California Beverage Container Recycling and Litter Reduction Act on Consumers

In late 1987 the California Beverage Container Recycling and Litter Reduction Act went into effect. Like mandatory beverage deposit legislation in other states, this Act is designed to promote returns through the payment of a redemption value. However, unlike traditional legislation, the Act attempts to promote recycling with lower redemption values and more state intervention. This paper presents a methodology for analyzing the impacts of beverage container recycling legislation on consumers. Applying this methodology to California, it is found that the Act will significantly reduce beverage container solid waste and litter, but the net benefits of the Act depend critically on consumers' valuations of intangible benefits.     

The Dynamics of Dealer Markets Under Competition

The behavior of competing dealers in securities markets is analyzed. Securities are characterized by stochastic returns and stochastic transactions. Reservation bid and ask prices of dealers are derived under alternative assumptions about the degree to which transactions are correlated across stocks at a given time and over time in a given stock. The conditions for interdealer trading are specified, and the equilibrium distribution of dealer inventories and the equilibrium market spread are derived. Implications for the structure of securities markets are examined.     

Illegitimacy,paternal financial responsibility,and the 1834 Poor Law Commission Report: the myth of the old poor law and the making of the new

The new poor law's bastardy clauses were amongst the most contested of the 1834 Act, and their unpopularity led to their (partial) reversal by 1844. The issue of paternal financial responsibility for the maintenance of illegitimate children was central to the reforms, and this article uses the Rural and Town Queries to show how parishes could enforce this responsibility effectively. This evidence could have been used as an alternative model of reform; instead, the Poor Law Commissioners misrepresented the operation of the law and recommended the abolition of affiliation. Rooted in the writings of Malthus, their proposals proved ultimately impracticable.     

Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas

A policy maker knows two models. One implies an exploitable inflation-unemployment trade-off, the other does not. The policy maker's prior probability over the two models is part of his state vector. Bayes' law converts the prior probability into a posterior probability and gives the policy maker an incentive to experiment. For models calibrated to U.S. data through the early 1960s, we compare the outcomes from two Bellman equations. The first tells the policy maker to "experiment and learn." The second tells him to "learn but don't experiment." In this way, we isolate a component of government policy that is due to experimentation and estimate the benefits from intentional experimentation. We interpret the Bellman equation that learns but does not intentionally experiment as an "anticipated utility" model and study how well its outcomes approximate those from the "experiment and learn" Bellman equation. The approximation is good. For our calibrations, the benefits from purposeful experimentation are small because random shocks are big enough to provide ample unintentional experimentation.     

An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks

Using transactions data, the behavior of returns and characteristics of trades at the micro level is examined. A minute-by-minute market return series is formed and tested for normality and autocorrelation. Evidence of differences in return distributions is found among overnight trades, trades during the first 30 minutes following the market opening, trades at the close, and trades during the remainder of the day. The latter distribution is found to be normal. Unusually high returns and standard deviations of returns are found at the beginning and the end of the trading day. When the beginning-and end-of-the-day effects are omitted, autocorrelation in the market return series is reduced substantially. A number of patterns in trading are reported.     

The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing

When coupled with a stock's current price, a readily available piece of information—the 52‐week high price–explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. Nearness to the 52‐week high dominates and improves upon the forecasting power of past returns (both individual and industry returns) for future returns. Future returns forecast using the 52‐week high do not reverse in the long run. These results indicate that short‐term momentum and long‐term reversals are largely separate phenomena, which presents a challenge to current theory that models these aspects of security returns as integrated components of the market's response to news.