Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns

This paper estimates hedge fund and mutual fund exposure to newly proposed measures of macroeconomic risk that are interpreted as measures of economic uncertainty. We find that the resulting uncertainty betas explain a significant proportion of the cross-sectional dispersion in hedge fund returns. However, the same is not true for mutual funds, for which there is no significant relationship. After controlling for a large set of fund characteristics and risk factors, the positive relation between uncertainty betas and future hedge fund returns remains economically and statistically significant. Hence, we argue that macroeconomic risk is a powerful determinant of cross-sectional differences in hedge fund returns.     

Term structure information and bond strategies

We examine term structure theories by using a novel approach. We form bond investment strategies based on different theories of the term structure in order to determine which strategy performs best. When using a manipulation-proof performance measure, we find that consistent with prior literature, an active strategy that is based on time varying term premiums can indeed form the basis of a successful bond strategy that outperforms an unbiased expectation inspired passive bond buy and hold strategy. This is true, however, for an earlier time period when the literature first made this claim. In a later time period, we find that the passive buy and hold strategy is significantly superior to all active strategies. This result is confirmed by statistical tests and it suggests that once it became known that an active strategy based on time varying term premiums could outperform a passive buy and hold strategy, the markets adjusted and arbitraged away this opportunity. Overall, it appears that the unbiased expectation hypothesis is the most likely explanation of the behaviour of the term structure during more recent times. This is because economically and statistically significant superior performance cannot be achieved if one uses information from the forward curve or the term structure as a guide to adjusting bond portfolios in response to changes in the term premium.     

The Deepwater Horizon explosion: non-technical skills,safety culture,and system complexity

The explosion and destruction of the Deepwater Horizon (DH) was a watershed moment for safety management in the US oil and gas industry. The 2011 National Oil Spill Commission investigation identified a range of operational behaviours and underlying safety management problems that were causal to the mishap. Yet, to date these have not been systematically considered within a human factors framework. To achieve this, we draw upon two applied psychology domains that are highly influential within safety research. First, we apply non-technical skills (NTS) (social and cognitive skills that underpin safe performance in complex work environments) theorem to understand operational activities in the lead-up and occurrence of the well blowout. NTS research is used to develop interventions for training and observing safety behaviours (e.g. decision-making, teamwork). Second, we apply safety culture theory to understand how the organisational and industry environment shaped the management of risk. Safety culture research is used to understand and change the socio-technical constraints and enablers of safety activity in high-risk workplaces. Finally, to integrate these perspectives, we take a systems-thinking perspective to understand the mishap. A common critique of accident narratives is their failure to systematically consider how the components of an incident interact together to escalate risk. From a systems-thinking perspective, understanding the interactions leading to the DH mishap is crucial for ensuring interventions are effective in preventing future mishaps. We develop an accident model that captures the various interactions and system factors leading to the blowout.     

Posterior model probabilities via path-based pairwise priors

We focus on Bayesian model selection for the variable selection problem in large model spaces. The challenge is to search the huge model space adequately, while accurately approximating model posterior probabilities for the visited models. The issue of choice of prior distributions for the visited models is also important.     

Dynamic analysis of interventions designed to achieve millennium development goals (MDG): The case of Ghana

An increasing number of countries are orientating their development strategies based on the millennium development goals (MDG), a broad set of directives agreed to by the United Nations (UN) in the year 2000. Developing coherent plans to achieve MDG has been complicated by their multidisciplinary nature, and by the complexity of the system being managed. The “system” here is the socio-economic construct within which populations live and operate. In an effort to support this planning process, various approaches have been developed to help realize MDG within specified budgets. The work described here complements the most commonly used approaches by analyzing the impact of alternative interventions in an integrated socio-economic-environmental framework. In doing so, we utilize system dynamics, which is well-suited to support the analysis of dynamic, complex issues such as those that characterize MDG planning. Such an approach allows us to estimate impacts of MDG-related interventions on the economic and demographic development of countries under study, as well as the possible synergies between and amongst selected interventions, e.g., those involving education and health. Results indicate that failure to account for such factors can lead to sub-optimal strategies. Our objective is thus to provide policy-makers with a more comprehensive view of the outcomes generated by alternative MDG interventions, with emphasis on the ability to finance given strategies.     

Normative rationality in venture capital financing

We examine whether venture capitalists (VCs) make investments based on normative rationality, which is derived from habitual and embedded norms and traditions indicative of a macroculture. Syndication and social and professional relations facilitate the development of shared decision-making frameworks. Using a four step methodology and a unique dataset of 139VC decisions and 82 independent VC assessments of those decisions, we find that the VC industry exhibits collective investment decision-making preferences, reflecting normative rationality. We offer implications for theory, practice, and future research.     

Teaching proactivity in the entrepreneurial classroom

Abstract

This article examines the extent to which a proactive attitude can be considered a component of the entrepreneurial mindset and can be learned in the entrepreneurial classroom. We test the impact on students’ proactive attitude of two different teaching methods: a teacher-directed approach and a self-directed learning approach. We include group potency and emotions as variables that may moderate proactivity learning outcomes. Our sample is composed of 281 Master students in a French business school. Using a mixed methodological approach, the results demonstrate that the proactive attitude can be learned and that collaborative teamwork, a creative team spirit and positive emotions contribute to its development. We offer guidelines for the pedagogical design of EM education, an alternative tool to assess its impact, and a better understanding of emotional factors associated with group potency in student entrepreneurial teams.     

Technology valuation of a scanning probe microscope developed at a university in a developing country

Precompetitive technology (PT) refers to devices, equipment, software or processes primarily developed at universities in developing countries for research or teaching as a result of externally financed projects contracted between the university institutes, centers or faculties and industry. PT is generally embodied in the form of laboratory prototypes and is licensed via technology transfer (TT) contracts between the university and external funding agencies or other interested parties. In the process of defining the terms of a TT contract, a fundamental question arises: what is the monetary value of a precompetitive technology? In this paper we present a methodology for PT valuation based on the identification of specific value points (SVP) related to its development. The four-step method includes the definition of a PT value range based on cost and market approaches, expected incomes, present value and scoring in order to determine the relative weights of the primary aspects of the intellectual capital behind the technology. The valuation methodology is applied to the specific example of a scanning probe microscope (SPM) developed at the Centro de Ciencias Aplicadas y Desarrollo Tecnológico of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM).     

Youth unemployment in Nigeria: nature,causes and solutions

Quality & Quantity - This study investigates the nature and causes of youth unemployment in Nigeria, with the aim of proffering evidence-based workable solutions as policy recommendation. Its...