Strategic Complements with First Mover Advantage

We show the existence of equilibrium and first mover advantage when two firms sequentially invest in quality improvement of their respective products. Although the actions (investment levels) of the firms are strategic complements, the second mover does not have an advantage. This is because, although firms are a priori identical, a change in rival investment can affect a firm differently, depending on whether the rival has a higher or lower level of investment. Thus, the marginal payoff with respect to rival action will differ for the first and second mover. We also show that the first mover may choose a higher level of investment than the second mover even though actions are strategic complements and the first mover's marginal payoff with respect to second mover action is negative.     

洛阳“一五”时期苏式住宅街坊考察与改造探索

以洛阳"一五"时期建造的苏式住宅为研究对象,阐述了其建造的历史,分析了整体的建筑风格特色,并对其现状进行调查研究,探讨了典型街坊改造更新的措施和方法,力求平衡历史街区的保护与社会经济发展,使历史遗产得以永续保存。     

Vinculación de los empleos de las cadenas mundiales de suministro a la demanda

La expansión de las cadenas mundiales de suministro (CMS) desconecta la ubicación de los empleos de la demanda correspondiente. Los autores utilizan la base de datos mundial de insumo‐producto (WIOD) para examinar estos vínculos en 40 países en el periodo 1995–2013, ampliar anteriores análisis de la OIT y proporcionar evidencia sobre el empleo creado por cada combinación ubicación del empleo‐destino de exportación. Observan un cambio en los patrones de demanda y oferta de empleo en las CMS, un auge de China como generadora de demanda, mayores vínculos de producción entre las economías emergentes y más empleos en los servicios sostenidos por las CMS manufactureras.     

An empirical analysis on the law of purchasing power parity and international economic deepening

This article empirically investigates the effect of international trade on the deviation of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) law and on the international economic deepening in four developed countries (Japan, USA, UK and France), and three Asian developing ones (South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia), using International Financial Statistics (IFS) data issued by International Monetary Fund (IMF). Our results show that in some developed countries the imbalance effect of balance of payments is significant for both international deepening and deviation from PPP, and in some developing countries the volume effect of balance of payments is significant for international deepening.     

Estimation of risk contributions with MCMC

Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we address the problem of estimating risk contributions when the total risk is measured by value-at-risk (VaR). Our proposed estimator of VaR contributions is based on the Metropolis-Hasting (MH) algorithm, which is one of the most prevalent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Unlike existing estimators, our MH-based estimator consists of samples from the conditional loss distribution given a rare event of interest. This feature enhances sample efficiency compared with the crude Monte Carlo method. Moreover, our method has consistency and asymptotic normality, and is widely applicable to various risk models having a joint loss density. Our numerical experiments based on simulation and real-world data demonstrate that in various risk models, even those having high-dimensional (≈500) inhomogeneous margins, our MH estimator has smaller bias and mean squared error when compared with existing estimators.     

A comparative dynamic analysis of a growth model under alternate policy regimes

Comparative dynamic analysis is conducted on a growth model with variable price levels and wage rates. A perturbation technique is used to compare the economy's time paths near a balanced growth path in response to alternate policy regimes. Various dynamic policy multipliers are calculated in response to some of the alternate policy regimes such as the balanced-budget fiscal regime, the constant price regime, the full-employment regime, etc., to examine their dynamic implications on the economy's behavior. Temporary deviations in the fiscal variables are found to leave no permanent effects under all but one of the regimes examined.     

Understanding Douglass North in game-theoretic language

By using game-theoretic language, this paper attempts to interpret the North's recent framework for institutional studies. Particularly relying on a foundational study of knowledge and culture in epistemic game theory, it clarifies three subtly different meanings of the beliefs used by North – behavioral, cultural, and elites’ subjective – in the evolutions of institutions. It also suggests the ways to respond to the North's call for interdisciplinary approach by applying analytical tools of strategic complementarities and linked games.     

The dynamics and distribution of the area price in the Nord Pool

The Nord Pool is often cited as a standard and successful electric power exchange. It was first created in Norway and developed into the power change system covering the Nordic countries. The Nord Pool provides a physical market where electricity producers and consumers/distributors meet by submitting bids for sale and purchase for 24 h time segment. If there does not exist a restraint of transmission capacity across the member countries, a single price—system price—is calculated by the intersection of the demand and supply curves, whereas if there exists congestion of transmission lines, area price instead of system price emerges. We are interested in analyzing how often and how far the two prices diverge and the probability distribution of the price ratio between system and area price. We found that the price ratio does not follow the normal distribution but the distribution is fat-tailed.