Out‐of‐Sample Exchange Rate Forecasting and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: The Case of Japan

This study explores the respective out‐of‐sample exchange rate forecasting abilities of five macroeconomic fundamental models in comparison to a naïve random walk model for Japan during the post‐Bretton Woods era. To assess the influence of major economic changes, we estimate both linear and nonlinear models for all the macroeconomic fundamentals. Overall, most structural exchange rate models outperform a naïve random walk model in terms of forecasting accuracy in the short horizon. When the fundamentals are only linearly modelled, the forecasting ability of the Taylor rule is generally superior to other fundamental models. When the fundamentals are nonlinearly specified, the predictability of some other models rises dramatically to match that of the Taylor rule models in short and/or long horizons. Of importance, we determine that the yen/dollar exchange rate forecasting performance effectively improves in several fundamental models when influential economic changes are incorporated.     

Multidimensional Poverty and Perceived Happiness: Evidence from China,Japan and Korea*

We compare multidimensional poverty and its associations with perceived happiness in China, Japan and Korea. Using largely comparable nationwide survey data, we focus on multidimensional poverty in terms of income, schooling, health and social protection. We find multidimensional poverty to be more prevalent in China than in Japan or Korea; sex and age‐based differences are largest in Korea. We further confirm significant associations between multidimensional poverty and perceived happiness. For all three countries, the aggregated poverty dimensions could largely identify unhappy individuals, with both wider coverage and higher odds than is possible through unidimensional analyses.     

SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS AND NETWORKS IN THE CASE OF SEMICONDUCTOR LASER TECHNOLOGY IN THE US AND JAPAN, 1960s–2000s

United States organisations took a clear lead in semiconductor laser research until the mid‐1970s. After the 1980s, many important breakthroughs were developed by Japanese organisations. Exploring the journal Applied Physics Letters, this study examines how semiconductor laser technology developed in these two countries and how this change in the country‐level industrial leadership in the scientific research occurred. Examining the relationship among industrial organisations, research networks, and scientific breakthroughs, it discusses how these coevolved and how breakthroughs were channelled in different directions. R&D targets were channelled into small markets in the US, but were concentrated into the same markets in Japan.     

Edgeworth type expansion of ruin probability under Lévy risk processes in the small loading asymptotics

This paper presents an asymptotic expansion of the ultimate ruin probability under Lévy insurance risks as the loading factor tends to zero. The expansion formula is obtained via the Edgeworth type expansion for compound geometric distributions. We give higher-order expansion of the ruin probability, any order of which is available in explicit form, and discuss a certain type of validity of the expansion. We shall also give applications to evaluation of the VaR-type risk measure due to ruin, and the scale function of spectrally negative Lévy processes.     

A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA

This paper provides an empirical analysis of changes in real house prices in the USA using State level data. It examines the extent to which real house prices at the State level are driven by fundamentals such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, and determines the speed of adjustment of real house prices to macroeconomic and local disturbances. We take explicit account of both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. This allows us to find a cointegrating relationship between real house prices and real per capita incomes with coefficients (1,−1)$(1,-1)$, as predicted by the theory. We are also able to identify a significant negative effect for a net borrowing cost variable, and a significant positive effect for the State level population growth on changes in real house prices. Using this model we then examine the role of spatial factors, in particular, the effect of contiguous states by use of a weighting matrix. We are able to identify a significant spatial effect, even after controlling for State specific real incomes, and allowing for a number of unobserved common factors. We do, however, find evidence of departures from long run equilibrium in the housing markets in a number of States notably California, New York, Massachusetts, and to a lesser extent Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon and Washington State.     

The welfare effect of tariff rate reductions in a many country world

Consider a two-commodity n-country model without inferior goods where import tariffs are the only trade barriers. In this paper we establish that the world's welfare is improved if the country with the highest tariff rate unilaterally reduce its rate to the level of the second highest country or if all the countries of the world reduce tariff rates proportionally. The second rule serves as a theoretical justification of the Kennedy and Tokyo Round Tariff Reductions.     

A Generalization of Continuity and Convexity Conditions for Correspondences in Economic Equilibrium Theory

Fixed-point theorems for multi-valued mappings and economic equilibrium existence theorems are generalized from the viewpoint that the continuity and/or convexity assumptions on a mapping may be replaced by weaker local conditions on the vector field defined by the mapping. The generalization gives us natural conditions on individual (possibly non-ordered) preferences or aggregated demand behaviours so that we may obtain several extensions of recent results in social and game-theoretic equilibrium theories.
JEL Classification Numbers: C60, C62, C72, D50, D51.     

HOW LONG SHOULD WE STAY IN EDUCATION IF ABILITY IS SCREENED?

We examine how ability‐screening affects demand for education and the shape of an optimal education system. Explicitly incorporating gradual screening by education into the model, we illustrate how individuals of different abilities decide to stay in education or drop out. Gradual screening induces low‐ability individuals to receive over‐education, reducing the net benefit obtained from education by society as a whole, as well as such individuals. A mixed education system, in which public education is provided before private education, is superior to a wholly private system, in terms of both efficiency and equity, because it reduces the over‐education of low‐ability individuals.