为非洲不断发展的消费市场挑选产品

非洲消费者阶层的迅速扩大应该使企业有理由考虑进入这一过去曾被许多企业回避的地区。     

Exchange rate regimes,capital controls,and currency crises: Does the bipolar view hold?

This paper empirically examines the link between de facto exchange rate regimes and the incidence of currency crises in 84 countries from 1980 to 2001 using probit models. We employ the de facto classification of Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) that allows us to estimate the impact of relatively long-lived exchange rate regimes on currency crises with much greater precision. We find no evidence that, as the bipolar view argues, intermediate regimes have a significantly higher probability of currency crises than both hard pegs and free floats. Using the combined data of exchange rate regimes and the existence of capital controls, we also find that hard pegs with capital account liberalization have a significantly lower probability of currency crises than intermediate regimes with capital controls and free floats with capital controls. Hence, the bipolar view does not strictly hold in the sense that intermediate regimes are significantly more prone to currency crises than the two extreme regimes. However, the fact that hard pegs with capital account liberalization are substantially less prone to currency crises is worthy of note.     

Iterative method for exponentially weighted rolling regression

This note proposes an iterative method for exponentially weighted rolling regression (EWRR), which was proved to be an optimal estimator of volatility by Foster and Nelson [Econometrica 64 (1996)]. The method accelerates the numerical evaluation of EWRR under certain circumstances. An alternative to usual realized volatility is proposed for its application.     

Was it really a dollar peg?: The exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, 1980–1997

This paper examines the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries during the period preceding the currency crisis of 1997, in an attempt to ascertain the extent to which they could be considered, as they frequently are, as a dollar peg. We do so by estimating the implicit weights of foreign currencies in the nominal exchange rate determination of East Asian currencies by means of a time-varying parameter model. The crucial element of our approach concerns how the weight of the Japanese yen was altered in response to the movement of the yen–dollar exchange rate. It is found that, while the weight of the U.S. dollar was large and the weight of the Japanese yen was small for the period as a whole, the weight of the yen was raised in some of the countries in the early 1990s. In particular, the Korean and Malaysian authorities raised the weight of the yen when the yen depreciated against the U.S. dollar, while the Singaporean authorities raised the weight of the yen when the yen appreciated against the dollar.     

Activity of a 'Soft Science Group' in Mitsubishi Electric Corp.

‘Soft Science’ is defined by the Science and Technology Agency of the Japanese Government as a new methodology to forecast, plan. control and evaluate. This paper describes the activities of the Soft Science Group (SSG) which has been established in the Mitsubishi Electric Corporation. SSG presently consists of 13 members and has issued in excess of 300 reports in 5 years. Its basic activities are concerned with setting new research themes, information exchange meetings, and work on specific projects involving also engineers seconded from operating divisions. The paper summarizes these activities and presents a case example of planning a new product which has already been developed and commercialized.