Extending composite loss models using a general framework of advanced computational tools

ABSTRACT

Composite models have a long history in actuarial science because they provide a flexible method of curve-fitting for heavy-tailed insurance losses. The ongoing research in this area continuously suggests methodological improvements for existing composite models and considers new composite models. A number of different composite models have been previously proposed in the literature to fit the popular data set related to Danish fire losses. This paper provides the most comprehensive analysis of composite loss models on the Danish fire losses data set to date by evaluating 256 composite models derived from 16 parametric distributions that are commonly used in actuarial science. If not suitably addressed, inevitable computational challenges are encountered when estimating these composite models that may lead to sub-optimal solutions. General implementation strategies are developed for parameter estimation in order to arrive at an automatic way to reach a viable solution, regardless of the specific head and/or tail distributions specified. The results lead to an identification of new well-fitting composite models and provide valuable insights into the selection of certain composite models for which the tail-evaluation measures can be useful in making risk management decisions.     

Access to credit and its determinants: A comparison of survey‐based measures

Measuring access to finance represents an important challenge in empirical studies. Due to data limitations, perception‐based indicators or the usage of finance are often used as approximations of access to finance. However, these approximations disregard firm‐specific differences in the demand for finance. We derive a direct measure of access to credit from firm‐level survey data and explicitly model credit demand. We study the determinants of access to credit and disentangle, in contrast to other measures, their effects on demand for and access to credit. We find that the usage of credit is not a sufficient approximation, while perception‐based indicators are surprisingly precise.     

Testing block‐diagonal covariance structure for high‐dimensional data

A test statistic is developed for making inference about a block‐diagonal structure of the covariance matrix when the dimensionality p exceeds n, where n = N ? 1 and N denotes the sample size. The suggested procedure extends the complete independence results. Because the classical hypothesis testing methods based on the likelihood ratio degenerate when p > n, the main idea is to turn instead to a distance function between the null and alternative hypotheses. The test statistic is then constructed using a consistent estimator of this function, where consistency is considered in an asymptotic framework that allows p to grow together with n. The suggested statistic is also shown to have an asymptotic normality under the null hypothesis. Some auxiliary results on the moments of products of multivariate normal random vectors and higher‐order moments of the Wishart matrices, which are important for our evaluation of the test statistic, are derived. We perform empirical power analysis for a number of alternative covariance structures.     

INTRODUCTION OF THE SNA INTO THE OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

The work on the introduction of the elements of the SNA into the official statistical practice of the former U.S.S.R. began in 1988 when estimates of the GDP using conversion keys were prepared. In 1991 the decision was made to implement the entire SNA gradually on the basis of the international standards. The methodology of compilation of the main accounts was formulated by the Statistical Committcc of the C.I.S. with the assistance of the OECD. It originally drew on the ESA with introduction of elements of the revised SNA and adaption to specific economic processes in the country. It required solution of a number of conceptual and statistical problems referring to the treatment, allocation and valuation of selected activities. The estimates of the main accounts were made for the former U.S.S.R. by sectors and by industries for 1988–90. This project has provided the basis for further work on implementation of the SNA in C.I.S. countries.     

Cultural sustainability – a framework for Aboriginal tourism in British Columbia

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a framework to assess the cultural sustainability of Aboriginal tourism in British Columbia, which meets must take into account the protection of human rights, good self-governance, identity, control of land, the tourism product’s authenticity, and a market-ready tourism product. These criteria are specified by two indicators each. The cultural sustainability framework was generated by triangulating qualitative research methods like experts’ interviews, secondary research, and participant and non-participant observations. This paper is thus conceptual in nature and inductive in its approach. It partly leverages a collaborative approach, as it includes interviewees in an iterative research loop. Furthermore, the paper shows why cultural sustainability is a determinant of the success of Aboriginal tourism.     

Introduction of International Accounting Standards,Disclosure Quality and Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

We examine whether the introduction of international accounting standards by German companies has improved the accuracy of analysts' forecasts, and what role changes in the quality of disclosures have played in this process. We develop a structural equation model that allows us to separate the effects of changes in disclosure quality from other effects of the introduction of international accounting standards on forecast errors. Our sample comprises 1,908 firm-years covering the period from 1997 to 2005. We measure disclosure quality with data from a yearly annual-report competition. We find that the introduction of international accounting standards has been associated with a significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Increases in the quality of companies' disclosures appear to have contributed to this improvement. However, the disclosure effect, while significant, explains only a small portion of the overall improvement in forecast accuracy. Further analyses show that differences in disclosure quality are more relevant for German GAAP companies than for IFRS/US GAAP companies. Moreover, only the quality of notes to companies' financial statements appears to matter to analysts; the quality of management reports appears to make no difference. Our results are robust to a variety of tests concerning the sample composition, the operationalisation of variables and the estimation procedure.