Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL

The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks. Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds. As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor behavioral biases for road favorites are not priced into the odds as the prices set in these cases appear to be a forecast of game outcomes. Pricing as a forecast may ensure long-run viability for the sportsbook as it discourages entry into this market by informed traders and still allows the sportsbook to capture its commission on losing bets over time.     

Long-term reactions to large stock price declines and increases in the European stock market: a note on market efficiency

This study tests for underreaction and overreaction in European large cap markets by examining the abnormal returns of those stocks in the EuroStoxx 50 Index following large price increases and decreases. We find that large price increases and declines tend to be followed by average market returns. Thus, our results support the efficient market theory, rather than any of the behaviour finance hypotheses. This insight is contrary to price patterns found in various national markets.     

Why and how to use vector autoregressive models for quality control: the guideline and procedures

While quality control on multivariate and serially correlated processes has attracted research attentions, a number of very detailed problems need to be overcome in order to construct practical control charts. We suggest guidelines for construction of control charts based on vector autoregressive (VAR) residuals. We discuss why VAR model is reasonable for real processes in nature, the use of VAR models to approximate multivariate serially correlated processes, residual estimation, selecting the number of variables, and selecting appropriate orders, among other issues. In addition, we illustrate an example employing VAR techniques to approximate a multivariate process previously examined and construct a control chart to monitor residuals. Last, we illustrate the potential development and use of the VAR residual chart to assist quality control and improvement.     

Posting,quoting, and replying: a comparison of methodological approaches to measure communication ties in web forums

Active involvement in discussion-based communities is nowadays a firm part of people’s online activities. The measurement of communication ties and networks between contributors to such domains is thus becoming a relevant research question in social sciences. However, especially in web forums, very often almost no direct relational information exists that would indicate the presence of communication ties among contributors. In contrast with the reply-to structure of Usenet newsgroup or mailing list conversations that contain explicit relational information created by the contributors, some web forums only enable participants to add new posts to threads or to quote preceding posts in threads. When discussions emerge, it is difficult to identify who is replying to whom. Drawing on the social network studies dealing with the conversational patterns in Usenet and web forums, this paper presents an alternative approach to identifying the ties between authors of posts. Several assumptions are discussed, and different measures are developed and empirically evaluated. The findings provide a starting point for the development of a standardized methodology for studying social networks in online communities where only limited direct information about communication ties is available.     

An application of co-word analysis and bibliometric maps for detecting the most highlighting themes in the consumer behaviour research from a longitudinal perspective

This article presents an application of a bibliometric and visual study of the research carried out on a social science subfield, concretely the consumer behaviour research (CBR), from a longitudinal perspective (period 1966–2008). The study combines performance analysis and science mapping for detecting and visualizing conceptual subdomains. Quantitative and qualitative measures are used in order to identify the most prominent themes. Quantitative data are used to put together very related concepts (themes or clusters of topics), while qualitative indicators (as those based on citations) are used to measure the quality and/or impact of the detected themes. The study also uses bibliometric maps to show in a visual way the associations between the main concepts treated by the CBR community. The maps provide insight into the structure of the CBR, visualize the division of the field into several subfields, and indicate the relationships between these subfields. Co-word analysis is the bibliometric technique used to identify the main themes. All this allows us to quantify and visualize the thematic evolution of the CBR. It also helps to both experts and novices to understand the current state of the art of the CBR and to predict where future research could lead.     

Children between the age of 5 and 11: what “don’t know” answers tell us

Children are increasingly seen as competent informants on their activities, views and needs. Different abilities of children can lead to inadequate (formally or regarding the content) answers or to the misunderstanding of proceedings during an interview process. One inadequate or at least unintended (on the part of the researcher) response is a “don’t know” answer (DK). To study when and why DK answers occur, a possible cause for them in the cognitive process and their relation to age, we analysed the DK answers given in qualitative semi-structured interviews with children aged 5–11, conducted face-to-face and on the telephone. Each of 56 children was interviewed twice, once face-to-face and once via telephone. The results show that age had an effect on DK responses due to the cognitive state of the respondent and their communicative intent, but there was no difference in the number of DKs due to problems with the research instrument or due to an adequacy judgement in respect of respondent age.     

Technological change and timing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

In 2007 Nicholas Stern’s Review (in Science 317:201–202, 2007) estimated that global GDP would shrink by 5–20% due to climate change which brought forth calls to reduce emissions by 30–70% in the next 20 years. Stern’s results were contested by Weitzman (in J Econ Lit XLV(3):703–724, 2007) who argued for more modest reductions in the near term, and Nordhaus (in Science 317:201–202, 2007) who questioned the low discount rate and coefficient of relative risk aversion employed in the Stern Review, which caused him to argue that ‘the central question about global-warming policy—how much how, how fast, and how costly—remain open.’ We present a simulation model developed by Färe et al. (in Time substitution with application to data envelopment analysis, 2009) on intertemporal resource allocation that allows us to shine some light on these questions. The empirical specification here constrains the amount of undesirable output a country can produce over a given period by choosing the magnitude and timing of those reductions. We examine the production technology of 28 OECD countries over 1992–2006, in which countries produce real GDP and CO₂ using capital and labor and simulate the magnitude and timing necessary to be in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. This tells us ‘how fast’ and ‘how much’. Comparison of observed GDP and simulated GDP with the emissions constraints tells us ‘how costly’. We find these costs to be relatively low if countries are allowed reallocate production decision across time, and that emissions should be cut gradually at the beginning of the period, with larger cuts starting in 2000.     

Market-oriented sustainability: a conceptual framework and propositions

Utilizing Resource-Advantage Theory as the underlying theoretical foundation and drawing on literature from a variety of disciplines, we develop a market-oriented sustainability framework. By incorporating sustainability into market orientation, the goal of strategic alignment of sustainability with marketing strategies is achieved to create a competitive advantage. Three constructs identified in the model are DNA, stakeholder involvement, and performance management. These three constructs are the drivers of sustainability. DNA is used as an extended metaphor to clarify and illustrate the workings of an organization and how sustainability may be implemented. This construct includes core ideology, dynamic capabilities, and societal engagement. The firm’s DNA is communicated to both internal and external stakeholders, and stakeholders’ concerns should be an influence on strategic marketing planning. Performance management is the third major construct in the model and includes corporate social performance and corporate financial performance metrics. Within the model explication, we offer propositions to support market-oriented sustainability research and provide directions for sustainability theory, research, and practice.     

Customer relationship management and company performance—the mediating role of new product performance

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) is widely accepted as an effective approach for collecting, analyzing, and translating valuable customer information into managerial action. However, the potential of CRM has been investigated only in the context of existing products. CRM’s potential to aid in future new product development (NPD) has been neglected. We develop a conceptual framework in which multiple facets of CRM are linked to new product and company performance. We test this model based on a cross-functional sample consisting of 115 R&D and 122 Marketing managers from firms spanning multiple industries. The results provide evidence that CRM has a positive effect on new product performance and further, that this effect is moderated by CRM reward systems but not CRM technology. We also show that new product performance mediates the relationship between CRM and company performance. These findings have important implications for research and practice in both the CRM and NPD areas.