Long-run income and price elasticities of demand for Colombian nontraditional exports: a multivariate cointegration framework

A long run income and price elasticities of demand is estimated for Colombian nontraditional exports through a multivariate cointegration analysis. Based on the combination of cointegration and exogeneity concepts and the inclusion of the complete dynamic system, the paper shows the existence of a long-run relationship among nontraditional exports, relative price and foreign demand, and higher long-run elasticities than those provided by the long-run cointegration vector coefficients that are usually reported in the trade literature.     

Consumer Bankruptcy in the United States: A Study of Alleged Abuse and of Local Legal Culture

This paper describes certain central aspects of the operation of the consumer bankruptcy system in the United States. It combines government data with the investigators' empirical data from two large studies done over a decade to explore two types of questions. The first area of investigation relates specifically to bankruptcy policy. The object is to identify the categories of persons principally served by the consumer bankruptcy system and to determine if suggestions of widespread abuse of that system by debtors are well-founded. The paper reports that the system is used primarily by the middle-class. It also reports that there is no evidence of widespread abuse. The second area of investigation is explanation of differences in the operation of the system in different regions of the country, differences that have persisted over twenty years despite major changes in legal rules and economic conditions. The paper argues that these differences are not explicable in terms of formal legal rules or a simple economic model and that a better explanation of the data is that the differences are the product of a "local legal culture" in each region.     

Selling two environmental services: In-kind payments for bird habitat and watershed protection in Los Negros, Bolivia

Marketing several environmental services from a single area can help access diverse sources of funding and make conservation a more competitive land use. In Bolivia's Los Negros valley (Department of Santa Cruz), bordering the Amboró National Park, 46 farmers are currently paid to protect 2774 ha of a watershed containing the threatened cloud-forest habitat of 11 species of migratory birds. In this payment for environmental services (PES) scheme, annual contracts prohibit tree cutting, hunting and forest clearing on enrolled lands. Farmer-landowners as service providers submit to independent yearly monitoring, and are sanctioned for non-compliance. Facilitated by a local NGO, Fundación Natura Bolivia, one service buyer is an international conservation donor (the US Fish and Wildlife Service) interested in biodiversity conservation. The second service users are downstream irrigators who likely benefit from stabilized dry-season water flows if upstream cloud forests are successfully protected. Individual irrigators have been reluctant to pay, but the Los Negros municipal government has on their behalf contributed ~ US$4500 to the scheme. The negotiated payment mode is annual quid pro quo in-kind compensations in return for forest protection. Predominantly, payments are made as “contingent project implementation”, transferring beehives supplemented by apicultural training. With regard to service provision, environment committees and education programs have increased awareness in downstream communities of the probable water-supply reduction effect of continued upstream deforestation. External donors have funded subsequent studies providing basic economic, hydrological and biodiversity data, and covered PES start-up (~ US$40,000) and running transaction costs (~ US$3000 per year over the last three years). The greatest challenges in the development of the PES mechanism have been the slow process of building trust between service buyers and providers, and in achieving clear service-provision additionality.     

Ride service outsourcing for profit maximization

Transportation service subcontracting is becoming an effective means of business for many leading carriers to maintain their market dominance and profitability. This research is based on an outsourcing practice in one of the few largest limousine fleet companies in the US, whose (mostly advance) demand for services often exceeds its capacity. We develop a model for ride service outsourcing. A column generation method is proposed. The outsourcing decision is made simultaneously with pre-scheduling of in-house ride services as well as staffing. Test with services data indicates that the developed method dramatically improves the carrier’s outsourcing decision.     

How to rescue the environment： The uncommon idea

Successful solution to any environmental problem implies working with Knightian uncertainty that explicitly deals with decision making under conditions of unstructured randomness. Nature did not endow us with clear set of laws. A ＂wild＂ type of randomness that we will never discern due to its unstable properties makes the assignment of corresponding probabilities impossible. For that reason, the consideration of general economical factors within cost/benefit analysis must fail. So, instead of governmental imervention and cup and trade scheme, we propose direct financial market out of certificates on environmental improvements. They could be applied unaided by a model specification. The approach is based on Principal-Agent method. We propose to fill a huge gap in what is called Free Market Environmentalism （FME）, and make the proposal of financial market property rights for situations when ＂property＂ rights can not be set.     

The Renaissance of the Big Cities—and the Opportunities for Berlin

Original Papers

The Renaissance of the Big Cities—and the Opportunities for Berlin     

Do Interregional Transfers Improve the Economic Performance of Poor Regions? The Case of Spain

The 17 regional governments of Spain receive grants from both the central government and the European Union. The grants are generally redistributive and are intended to stimulate economic activity in the poorer regions. We evaluate the effectiveness of the grants by comparing the economic performance of the regions before and after the implementation of the grant programs using a differences-in-differences approach. We find that these policies have not been effective at stimulating private investment or improving the overall economies of the poorer regions.     

On the determinants of local government performance: A two-stage nonparametric approach

This article analyzes the efficiency of local governments in the Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) and their main explanatory variables. The analysis is performed in two stages. Firstly, efficiency is measured via (nonparametric) activity analysis techniques. Specifically, we consider both Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposable Hull (FDH) techniques. The second stage identifies some critical determinants of efficiency, focusing on both political and fiscal policy variables. In contrast to previous two-stage research studies, our approach performs the latter attempt via nonparametric smoothing techniques, rather than econometric methods such as OLS or Tobit related techniques. Results show that efficiency scores, especially under the nonconvexity assumption (FDH), are higher for large municipalities. Thus, there is empirical evidence to suggest that resources may be better allocated by large municipalities. However, the inefficiency found is not entirely attributable to poor management, as second-stage analysis reveals both fiscal and political variables to be explicably related to municipality performance. Moreover, the explanatory variables’ impact on efficiency is robust to the chosen technique—either convex DEA or nonconvex FDH.     

Nonparametric estimation of convergence of interest rates: Effects on bond pricing

We present and estimate a model of short term interest rate dynamics where we incorporate the convergent behavior of interest rates implied by the transition to EMU. We apply this model to data of two EMU countries - Spain and Italy - and compare the performance, in terms of accuracy of bond pricing, of this two-factor convergence model with alternative specifications. Nonparametric techniques are used for the estimation of the processes. The two-factor model which accounts for the convergence with Europe of the domestic economies, obtains better results, especially for short-term assets, than alternative models. The results of the nonparametric specifications are shown to be significantly better than those of parametric alternatives.JEL Classification: E43, C14We would like to thank Adrian Pagan and Eduardo Schwartz for their invaluable feedback, encouragement and patience. We also would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees and participants at the Symposium of Economic Analysis (Barcelona, December 1999), the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society (Sydney, July 1999), the 2000 European Meeting of the Financial Management Association (Edinburgh, July 2000) and seminars at the Australian National University, Canberra, and at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, for their comments and suggestions. All errors remain our sole responsibility. Financial assistance from the Fundación Ramó n Areces, Madrid, Spain, and the Asociación de Amigos de la Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Time Management in the Cost Evaluation of Limited Resource Programs

Planning, implementing and evaluating an intervention program all hinge around time. A program’s actions are planned according to a forecast of the time required to achieve certain objectives, and the program’s implementation among a group of users is conditioned by its real time application. Similarly, program evaluation needs to take into consideration the time resource when analysing objectively the extent to which a program’s targets have been reached, and when conducting a cost analysis of the program. In limited resource programs, any disparity between the scheduled time and the real time available can have serious consequences, and even undermine a program’s efficacy. Time management, above all where resources are limited, is therefore the linchpin in the planning, implementation and evaluation of an intervention program. In this study we analyse the utility of PERT and CPM as basic tools for the efficient time management of limited resource programs.