Credit Constraints in Manufacturing Enterprises in Africa

We investigate the question of whether firms in Africa's manufacturingsector are credit constrained. The fact that few firms obtaincredit is not sufficient to prove constraints, since certainfirms may not have a demand for credit while others may be refusedcredit as part of profit maximising behaviour by banks. To investigatethis question, we use direct evidence on whether firms had ademand of credit and whether their demand was satisfied in theformal credit market, based on panel data on firms in the manufacturingsector from six African countries. Of those firms with a demandfor credit, only a quarter obtained a formal sector loan. Ouranalysis suggests that while banks allocate credit on the basisof expected profits, micro or small firms are much less likelyto get a loan than large firms. We also find that outstandingdebt is positively related with obtaining further lending. Therole of outstanding debt is likely to be a reflection of inefficiencyin credit markets, while the fact that size matters is consistentwith a bias as well, although we cannot totally exclude thatthey reflect transactions costs on the part of banks. We presentan analysis showing how much more profitable small firms mustbe to obtain a loan than large firms.     

An Adjustment Procedure for Predicting Betas When Thin Trading is Present: Canadian Evidence

We have incorporated effects of the process that generates true betas for TSE stocks, as well as thin trading effects, into the beta adjustment model. We note the Blume and Dimson and Marsh beta adjustment techniques aim at eliminating beta forecast error through regression tendency bias. Effects of other sources of forecast error have been ignored. We show the process generating security betas affects both cross-sectional correlation coefficient and order bias, while thin trading affects only cross-sectional correlation coefficient. We demonstrate that when OLS beta estimates are used to forecast their future risk levels, order bias accounts for 86% of forecast error, while thin trading effects account for 14% of forecast error. A beta regression tendency model which properly accounts for effects of cross-sectional correlation (which is a function of thin trading) and order bias completely abates forecast error. Our results have implications for the use of correlation coefficient to measure stability of betas across time, for beta adjustment models proposed in the literature, and for event study methodologies that rely on prediction errors.     

Are Auditors Compromised by Nonaudit Services? Assessing the Evidence*

Ruddock, Taylor, and Taylor (2006) use an earnings conservatism framework to investigate the effects of nonaudit services (NAS) on earnings conservatism, and to test whether audit quality was impaired by NAS in Australia during the 1990s. They find no evidence of differential conservatism conditional on the level of NAS fees paid to auditors, and thus conclude that NAS have no adverse effect on audit quality. While this result may not extrapolate to the U.S. setting due to institutional difference between the two countries, the study does add to a growing body of empirical evidence that questions whether there is any logical rationale for restricting the scope of the services that auditors provide to their audit clients. In reviewing the NAS research literature over the past 40 years, one has to conclude that there is no “smoking gun” evidence linking the provision of nonaudit services with audit failures. However, the literature also finds that NAS can adversely affect the appearance of auditor independence, and this may be more than a “mere perception” problem, because there is also evidence that stock prices are significantly lower for companies that pay their auditors large fees for nonaudit services.