Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: perspectives for portfolio diversification

This article analyzes the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015. Using different copulas, our results show that there is weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese sectorial stock returns. This means that the dependence between extreme movements of the two assets is not pronounced and confirms the role of gold as a safe haven asset. Based on analyzing the efficient frontier, CCC-GARCH optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness, we further show that adding gold into Chinese stock portfolios can help to reduce their risk. Gold appears to be the most efficient diversifier for stocks of the materials sector and the less efficient for the utilities sector. As a robustness check, we also compare gold to oil and indicate that gold is more efficient than oil in the diversification of Chinese stock portfolios.

     

Geographic information system concepts for land management

A Geographical Information System (GIS) has recently been developed for the assessment of the agricultural potential of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The main value of this GIS is the integration of agricultural resource information from the SADC countries in order to support regional planning. The development of GIS technology makes it possible to compile, store, retrieve, analyse and display vast quantities of spatial data on, inter alia, the climate, topography, soils and infrastructure of the region. This article aims to give background information on the nature and general application of a GIS. Attention is given to the capabilities of a GIS, the spatial questions that drive analyses, basic database requirements, analytical and operational functions, as well as the applications of a GIS in land reform. More detail on the spatial agricultural resource data captured and its use by means of the SADC GIS will be described in a later article.     

Die Private Krankenversicherung im Fokus des Verfassungsrechts

Starting with the question as to the extent to which the state may interfere with economic interests at all, a brief historical overview is given through to the regulations currently in force. The Basic Law (Grundgesetz) remains neutral on this issue so that the question cannot be discussed as to whether regulations are at all conceivable and admissible but how far these can go. The noteworthy parameters of the German law on intensifying competition in the statutory health insurance system (GKV-WSG) are then highlighted: the collision of the reform of private health insurance law with the reform of the entire insurance contract law as well as the length of the individual provisions and the correlating remark of member of parliament Merz in the Cicero magazine according to which no single member of parliament had even a rudimentary understanding of he was actually deciding on. From the point of view of substantive law, the main “diseases” of the GKV-WSG are strikingly shown, including in particular the creation and design of the basic rate as well as non-terminability etc. Finally reference is made to the double balancing act with which the private health insurance system is confronted: on the one hand the statutory health insurance system with its allocation principle and the private health insurance system with it superior principle of equivalence that wakens the desires of 4/5 of the German population who live in a poorly functioning system; on the other hand the field of tension between individual and collective consumer protection, i.e. between the high standards which are to be created for individuals which are then ultimately to be borne by the collective.     

A Comment on Dehez and Tellone, “Data games: sharing public goods with exclusion”

This comment shows that the data cost game introduced in Dehez and Tellone (Journal of Public Economic Theory, 2013) coincides with the nonadditive component of the library cost game studied in Driessen, Khmelnitskaya, and Sales (TOP, 2012) where the core, nucleolus, and Shapley value were also investigated.     

Ridge regression and its degrees of freedom

For ridge regression the degrees of freedom are commonly calculated by the trace of the matrix that transforms the vector of observations on the dependent variable into the ridge regression estimate of its expected value. For a fixed ridge parameter this is unobjectionable. When the ridge parameter is optimized on the same data, by minimization of the generalized cross validation criterion or Mallows \(\hbox {C}_{L}\) , additional degrees of freedom are used however. We give formulae that take this into account. This allows of a proper assessment of ridge regression in competitions for the best predictor.     

La segregación ocupacional por horas de trabajo en Europa

En este artículo se cuantifican los niveles de segregación ocupacional entre el trabajo a tiempo parcial y a tiempo completo según los datos de la Encuesta Europea de Población Activa para quince países europeos, tratando de identificar algunos determinantes de la segregación mediante un análisis de regresión con tres grupos de indicadores (cantidad de empleo, calidad del empleo y factores institucionales). Por lo general, la segregación ocupacional por horas de trabajo es más alta para los hombres que para las mujeres y más alta para los trabajadores jóvenes que para los adultos. Así como entre los hombres la segregación se correlaciona solamente con la cantidad de empleo, en el caso de las mujeres adultas y los trabajadores jóvenes inciden variables asociadas a los tres grupos de indicadores.     

Employee shareholders in two privatised utilities

This article draws on a survey of over 400 employees in two privatised companies. It examines the relationship between the depth of share ownership and social class and prior political orientations, and suggests that employee attitudes are best understood as a function of these standard sociological factors.     

The influence of business strategy on new product activity: The role of market orientation

In this paper, we propose that business strategy influences new product activity both directly and indirectly via its influence on market orientation. Accordingly, we develop a framework linking firms' relative emphasis on cost leadership, product differentiation and focus strategies to firms' customer and competitor orientation as well as their new product development and introduction activity. We use this framework to develop a simultaneous equations model that is tested on survey data from 175 Dutch firms of varying size and across different industries in the manufacturing sector. The surprising findings are that a greater emphasis on a focus strategy results in a decreased emphasis on customer orientation and that competitor orientation has a negative direct influence on new product activity and an indirect positive effect via customer orientation. We discuss the implications of these findings for theory and practice.     

Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents

Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of \(1/2\), and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report \(1/2\). Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.     

The elusive effects of trade on growth: Export diversity and economic take‐off

The hallmark of the voluminous growth determinants literature is the absence of a clear‐cut effect of trade on growth. Numerous candidate regressors have been motivated by alternative theories and tested by a multitude of empirical studies, but not one trade regressor has been robustly related to growth. In this paper, we leverage Melitz's (2003) insights regarding sectoral export dynamics and Feenstra and Kee's (2008) approach to productivity and sectoral export diversity to propose a structured approach to trade and growth determinants. Instead of relying on aggregate trade measures as previous studies have done, we examine the diversity of sectoral exports and the development of broad‐based comparative advantage as a potential growth determinant. Controlling for model uncertainty and endogeneity, we find that export diversity serves as a crucial growth determinant for low‐income countries, an effect that weakens with the level of development.