Optimal capital accumulation in generalized Leontief models

Summary This study is in normative growth theory. Discounted per capita consumption is maximized subject to Leontief technologies. Numerical linear programming examples exhibiting consumption turnpikes are presented and carefully analysed. Special attention is given to shadow prices and the discount rate in case of a choice between different technologies. It is shown that the introduction of so-called stock activities may lead to unrealistic results. An interesting extension is obtained by assuming embodied technological change. In this case, a new technique in a certain sector of the economy can only be introduced by means of investment. It appears that the consumption turnpike is approached in a very irregular way. The computer time increases substantially, which may be a problem in practical applications of this variant.I am grateful to Professor S.K. Kuipers and Dr. A.B.T.M. van Schaik for their comments and encouragement. Any errors remaining are mine.     

The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe

‘One Belt One Road’ is an extensive and complex initiative whose potential effect and influence are still currently pending for answers. This paper addresses the following research question: What is the effect of the New Silk Road intercontinental railways on the trade between China and its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe? We focus on nine railway lines connecting Europe and China, which started operations between 2011 and 2015. The countries’ trade patterns with railway connections to China are then compared to the countries without railway connections to China. We find the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China’s exports to its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe, especially concerning exports of manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Moreover, the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China’s imports of food and live animals from its trading partners.     

Oil price and FX-rates dependency

Oil prices and exchange rates against the dollar have both experienced long swings over the recent decade. Regardless of the great amount of research, some issues are still open to debate. In this vein, this paper focuses on the evolution of the relationship between oil prices and dollar exchange rates of 12 oil exporting and oil importing countries based on a dynamic copula approach. We use daily data for two 5-year periods between 2003 and 2013, taking the collapse of Lehman Brothers as the dividing point. Our results have four main implications: first, the intensity of relationship between oil prices and FX-rates has increased over time even if the peak of the financial crisis is included. Second, the increased tail dependency shows that extreme events are likelier to occur simultaneously for both series. Third, the dependency has become more dynamic after the financial crisis and is therefore better characterized by time-varying copulas. Finally, currencies of oil importers and oil exporters display a different dependency structure against the US dollar in the case of rising oil prices with the latter appreciating and the former depreciating.     

Saving and Investing Over the Life Cycle and the Role of Collective Pension Funds

Summary This paper surveys the academic literature on optimal saving and investment over an individual’s life cycle. We start out with a simple benchmark model with separable and smooth preferences, one aggregate risk factor and riskless wage income. Within this simple setting, optimal saving and investment behavior are explored from the perspective of individuals. Subsequently, we investigate various constraints to optimal individual decision making. We discuss how collective pension schemes may help to relieve some of the market incompleteness that arises from these constraints while at the same time introducing new types of constraints. Finally, various extensions to the benchmark setting are analyzed: a more elaborate modelling of human capital, additional risk factors, and other types of preferences. We thank Peter Kooreman for helpful comments on an earlier version and Roel Mehlkopf for research assistance.     

The influence of business strategy on new product activity: The role of market orientation

In this paper, we propose that business strategy influences new product activity both directly and indirectly via its influence on market orientation. Accordingly, we develop a framework linking firms' relative emphasis on cost leadership, product differentiation and focus strategies to firms' customer and competitor orientation as well as their new product development and introduction activity. We use this framework to develop a simultaneous equations model that is tested on survey data from 175 Dutch firms of varying size and across different industries in the manufacturing sector. The surprising findings are that a greater emphasis on a focus strategy results in a decreased emphasis on customer orientation and that competitor orientation has a negative direct influence on new product activity and an indirect positive effect via customer orientation. We discuss the implications of these findings for theory and practice.     

Local Responsive Talent Management for Foreign Multinational Enterprises in China

China evolves with amazing speed to be a leading player in the world economy. However, the transformation from isolated centrally planned to internationally open market economy during the past 25 years has occurred so fast that the change in the mindset and the adaptation of new modern business practice is still in progress. Foreign multinational enterprises in the mainland of China responded to the resulting shortcomings of Chinese professionals and managers by covering the key position in the organization by their own resources or managers from neighbor Asian countries. In this qualitative study, a new local responsive talent management concept for foreign multinational enterprises with expatriated managers was proposed under special consideration of the cultural business environment in China. The establishment of a learning firm culture with advanced training system to compensate the drawbacks of Chinese professionals was outlined. The coverage of the key positions in the organization by Chinese professionals with established social network and optionally supported by temporary foreign advisors was proposed to improve the firm climax, domestic customer and stakeholder relations.     

Nonresponse in panel data: The impact on estimates of a life cycle consumption function

If missing observations in a panel data set are not missing at random, many widely applied estimators may be inconsistent. In this paper we examine empirically several ways to reveal the nature and severity of the selectivity problem due to nonresponse, as well as a number of methods to estimate the resulting models. Using a life cycle consumption function and data from the Expenditure Index Panel from the Netherlands, we discuss simple procedures that can be used to assess whether observations are missing at random, and we consider more complicated estimation procedures that can be used to obtain consistent or efficient estimates in case of selectivity of attrition bias. Finally, some attention is paid to the differences in identification, consistency, and efficiency between inferences from a single wave of the panel, a balanced sub-panel, and an unbalanced panel.     

What’s Causing Overreaction? An Experimental Investigation of Recency and the Hot‐hand Effect

A substantial body of empirical literature provides evidence of overreaction in markets. Past losers outperform past winners in stock markets as well as in sports markets. Two hypotheses are consistent with this observation. The recency hypothesis states that traders overweight recent information; they are too optimistic about winners and too pessimistic about losers. According to the hot‐hand hypothesis, traders try to discover trends in the past record of a firm or a team, and thereby overestimate the autocorrelation in the series. An experimental design allows us to distinguish between these hypotheses. The evidence is consistent with the hot‐hand hypothesis.     

Zur Sozialphilosophie der Ostwirtschaft

Ohne ZusammenfassungDer vorliegende Aufsatz ist das Ergebnis einer Teamarbeit. Insbesondere danke ich meinem wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter, Herrn cand. phil. W. Schneider, für seine Beiträge und der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft für eine Sachbeihilfe.