Optimal Intervention Policies for a Small Monetary Economy

We analyze the gains from trade for a small cash-in-advance economy with endogenous labor supply and learning-by-doing in the accumulation of human capital. Contrary to previous findings, we show that free trade is not optimal independently of the relative amount of cash required for the purchase of each good. Furthermore, a monetary rule à la Friedman can eliminate distortions deriving from the cash-in-advance constraint only under segmented financial markets; in any case, it cannot restore the economic optimum. Finally, we identify government intervention policies, such as wage and export subsidies, that can be welfare improving.     

On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union

In this paper, we test for the stationarity of EU current account deficits. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit‐root panel data testing, namely (i) the identification of which panel members are stationary, and (ii) the presence of cross‐sectional dependence. For this purpose, we employ an AR‐based bootstrap approach to the Hadri (2000 ) test. While there is only mixed evidence that current account stationarity applies when examining individual countries, this does not appear to be the case when considering panels comprising both EU and non‐EU members.     

Purchasing Power Parity and the European single currency: Some new evidence

The effect of the single currency on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis is examined in this study for the 15 EU countries, vis a vis the US dollar, before and after the advent of the euro. Standard as well as nonlinear unit root tests are employed on the time series dimension. Unit root tests reject PPP and the highest half-lives are observed after the introduction of the single currency. Panel unit root (Pesaran, 2007) and stationarity tests (Hadri and Kurozumi, 2008) that take into account cross-sectional dependence are also estimated. The results remain inconclusive as panel stationarity tests fail to support PPP whereas panel unit root tests fail to reject PPP for the whole sample and for the period before the introduction of the single currency.     

Future S&T management policy issues—2025 global scenarios

This article presents four scenarios depicting science and technology (S&T) management dilemmas of the next two decades. The scenarios concern the balance between risk and promise, between the need to steer the directions of S&T, to minimize risk, and the need to maintain a free and unconstrained S&T agenda. These scenarios were constructed in the third year of the Millennium Project's study of this topic. The scenarios were formed in an interactive process with the project's international participants. The key policies that were found to be useful in all of the scenarios include (1) when considering the possibility of the misuse of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists, include the possibility of misuse by a single individual, acting alone; (2) establish mechanisms and techniques for making possible the explicit unintended consequences of scientific research and technology, including malicious uses; (3) for desirable technologies, where it may not be possible to avoid significant risks, develop mitigation strategies in parallel; (4) teach science ethics.     

Are EU budget deficits stationary?

In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971–2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (2) the identification of potential structural breaks that might have occurred at different points in time. To address these concerns, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach that allows us to test the null hypothesis of joint stationarity with endogenously determined structural breaks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the EU countries considered are characterised by fiscal stationarity over the full sample period irrespective of us allowing for structural breaks. This conclusion also holds when analysing sub-periods based on before and after the Maastricht treaty.     

Illegal immigration in a heterogeneous labor market

This paper examines the effects of illegal immigration in a neoclassical growth model with two groups of workers, skilled and unskilled. We show that although illegal immigration is a boon to a country as a whole, there are distributional effects, whose sign is in general ambiguous. This is because all sources of income of both groups are affected and some of these changes tend to move income in opposite directions. Nevertheless, calibration exercises show that the wealth distribution is likely to become more unequal as the number of illegal immigrants increases. We confirm most of our calibration results analytically in a small open economy version of the basic model. Finally, our results remain robust when we extend the model to allow for endogenous skill acquisition.     

A categorical modeling approach to analyzing new product adoption and usage in the context of the building-materials industry

A high proportion of non-adopters is prevalent in any market where the product under consideration is relatively new or has a low acceptance rate. This results in a low proportion of adopters in a representative sample. In adoption or product usage modeling such high proportion of zeros in the dependent variable may be addressed by zero-inflated models, by modeling the product adoption and usage as a function of two latent processes. This paper considers a zero-inflated ordinal-probit model for investigating adoption and usage of innovative wall-cavity insulation materials among residential homebuilders in the US. This study assumes a three-step adoption process of innovative housing materials, namely, trial adoption, intermediate adoption and complete adoption. The study uses 5757 responses from a combined ‘Annual Builder Practices Survey’ dataset comprising ten cross-sectional yearly surveys, undertaken by the NAHB Research Center, from 1996 to 2005. The research results indicate that though a higher proportion of large firms are more likely to adopt innovative insulation material, they continue using established products while slowly increasing their use of the innovative material over time. However, when smaller homebuilders adopt an innovative insulation material, it replaces the existing product from their material usage portfolio at a faster rate.     

Guidelines-based treatment associated with improved economic outcomes in nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease

Abstract

Background: The prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTMLD) in the US has increased; however, data characterizing the associated healthcare utilization and expenditure at the national level are limited.

Objective: To examine associations between economic outcomes and the use of anti-Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) guidelines-based treatment (GBT) for newly-diagnosed NTMLD in a US national managed care claims database (Optum^® Clinformatics^® Data Mart).

Methods: NTMLD was defined as having ≥2 claims for NTMLD (ICD-9 031.0; ICD-10 A31.0) on separate occasions ≥30?days apart (between 2007 and 2016). The cohort included patients insured continuously over a period of at least 36?months (12?months before initial NTMLD diagnostic claim and for the subsequent 24?months). Treatment was classified as GBT (consistent with American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines), non-GBT, or untreated. All-cause hospitalization rates and total healthcare expenditures at Year 2 were assessed as outcomes of the treatment prescribed in Year 1 after NTMLD diagnosis.

Results: A total of 1,039 patients met study criteria for NTMLD (GBT, n?=?294; non-GBT, n?=?298; untreated, n?=?447). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, GBT was associated with a significantly lower all-cause hospitalization risk vs non-GBT (odds ratio [OR]?=?0.53; 95% CI = 0.33–0.85, p?=?0.008), and vs being untreated (OR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.35–0.91, p?=?0.020). Adjusted total healthcare expenditure in Year 2 with GBT ($69,691) was lower than that with non-GBT ($77,624) with a difference of ?$7,933 (95% CI = ?$14,968 to ?$899; p?=?0.03).

Conclusions: Patients with NTMLD in a US managed care claims database who were prescribed GBT had lower hospitalization risk than those who were prescribed non-GBT or were untreated. GBT was associated with lower total healthcare expenditure compared with non-GBT.     

Intermodal traffic,regulatory change and carbon energy conservation in US freight transport

Conserving transport carbon emissions is an important policy goal. Conventional wisdom often holds that conservation is best achieved by increased regulation, and that such gains are best achieved in passenger auto transport (fuel efficiency standards or diversion to transit). We argue that the growth of rail freight has conserved carbon fuel use in the United States, and that fuel-saving changes have been facilitated by reduced regulation since 1980. Methods used include estimation of translog cost functions (and related demand functions for fuel) for intermodal rail and for truck, allowing controlled comparisons of modal fuel use. We find intermodal rail (e.g. trailer on flatcar) to be a powerful conserver: if intermodal rail were eliminated, and traffic transferred to over-the-highway truck, extra annual carbon emissions would be nearly 25?Tg. By comparison, if urban passenger transit were eliminated and replaced by autos (according to one study) the extra annual emissions would be only 3.9?Tg.