Endogenous Minimum Participation in International Environmental Treaties

Many international treaties come into force only after a minimum number of countries have signed and ratified the treaty. Minimum participation constraints are particularly frequent in the case of environmental treaties dealing with global commons, where free-riding incentives are strong. Why do countries that know they have an incentive to free-ride accept to “tie their hands” through the introduction of a minimum participation constraint? This article addresses the above issues by modeling the formation of an international treaty as a three-stage non-cooperative coalition formation game. Both the equilibrium minimum participation constraint and the number of signatories—the coalition size—are determined. This article, by showing that a non-trivial partial coalition, sustained by a binding minimum participation constraint, forms at the equilibrium, explains the occurrence of minimum participation clauses in most international environmental agreements. It also analyses the endogenous equilibrium size of the minimum participation constraint.     

‘Psychopaths’ at Work? Implications of Lay Persons’ Use of Labels and Behavioural Criteria for Psychopathy

In attempting to explain or deal with negative workplace behaviours such as workplace bullying, the notion of ‘workplace psychopaths’ has recently received much attention. Focusing on individual aspects of negative workplace behaviour is at odds with more systemic approaches that recognise the contribution of individual, organisational and societal influences, without seeking to blame a person(s) for their behaviour or personality disorder. Regarding a coworker as a psychopath is highly stigmatising, and given the relatively low prevalence of psychopathy in the community, is likely to be incorrect. Sources promoting the notion of workplace psychopathy provide lists of diagnostic criteria and appear to encourage the perception that it is common. This research examines how lay persons use behavioural criteria consistent with psychopathy and the label ‘psychopath’ in relation to a coworker. 307 Australian workers completed an online survey concerning their experience of workplace bullying, which also asked them to rate a coworker’s behaviour on a range of scales to assess perceptions of psychopathy. Rates of psychopathy, when using labels and behavioural criteria, were found to be much higher than scientific estimates of prevalence, for both participants who had been bullied and those who had not. A higher proportion of non-bullied participants classified a coworker as a psychopath when using the label ‘psychopath’, compared to when using behavioural criteria. The notion that there are psychopaths in every workplace should be treated with caution to ensure that the potential for ‘misdiagnosis’ and stigmatisation do not cause further harm in situations of unacceptable workplace behaviours.     

Voting for Burden Sharing Rules in Public Goods Games

We experimentally investigate whether groups of heterogeneous agents can reach an agreement on how to share the costs of providing a public good. Thereby, we explore the performance of different burden sharing rules being implemented either endogenously or exogenously. In case of an endogenously implemented burden sharing rule, subjects vote for different burden sharing schemes either by unanimity or majority vote. Despite the fact that preferences for the allocation schemes differ among agents, most groups agree upon a common scheme, and consequently avoid an uncoordinated action. Our results reveal both the opportunities and risks of burden sharing negotiations. We find average efficiency levels to increase in case an agreement is reached. If groups however fail to agree upon a common rule, cooperation collapses and efficiency levels decrease compared to a voluntary contribution mechanism being exogenously imposed. Most importantly, agents who face a voting decision on average receive higher payoffs than agents in an exogenously implemented voluntary contribution mechanism and do not earn less than participants in any externally determined burden sharing rule.     

Targeting,bias, and expected impact of complex innovations on developing‐country agriculture: evidence from Malawi

Agronomic analyses of new technologies are often conducted under carefully controlled research station programs or trials managed by self‐selected farmers. Oftentimes, the technologies are then scaled up with minimal evaluation under real‐world conditions. Yet, the interim step between agronomic trials and large‐scale promotion is crucial to generate evidence on the social and economic impact of technologies that is both internally valid and generalizable. The article focuses on a participatory action research program in Malawi designed to test and identify scalable technology options to intensify the smallholder sector and contribute to poverty reduction and food and nutrition security. We examine the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers testing technologies and find evidence of systematic targeting of better‐endowed farmers. After controlling for observable differences using matching and a doubly robust estimator, we find evidence of early positive effects on maize yield and harvest value, although placebo tests suggest possible selection on unobservables. We note that attention should be given to program design and household characterization to better define and improve targeting criteria, technology selection, and external validity.     

Whither Keynesian probability? Impolite techniques for decision-making

The critical literature on Keynes has provided extensive analysis of why individual agents may find convenient to adopt a “conventional judgement”, and what he meant by “polite techniques” used to save their faces as “rational, economic men.” This paper concentrates instead on impolite techniques of thought suited to deal with Keynesian uncertainty. The paper suggests that the thread going from Keynes's Treatise on Probability to the General Theory and its defence provides a positive analysis of decision-making under uncertainty, and that placing emphasis on this positive analysis simply means adhering to Keynes's long-standing commitment to a (surely peculiar) probabilistic set-up.     

Do micro start-ups fuel job creation? Cross-country evidence from the DynEmp Express database

Exploiting a novel database recently built from national business registers by the OECD with the support of an international network of experts, this paper investigates the growth dynamics of micro-firms (employing less than ten workers) across 16 countries. Results show that only a small proportion of micro-firms manage to grow beyond ten employees, but those contribute disproportionately to overall job creation. Econometric analysis focusing in particular on the role of age confirms that young micro-firms—especially those below 3 years of age—are much more likely to grow above ten employees than older firms. These findings are remarkably stable over the three time periods considered (2001–2004, 2004–2007, and 2007–2010), i.e., also during the Great Recession.     

A Statistical Analysis of Reliability of Audit Opinions as Bankruptcy Predictors

This research measures the reliability of audit firms in predicting bankruptcy for United States （US） listed financial institutions. The object of analysis is the going concern opinion （GCO）, widely considered as a bankruptcy warning signal to stakeholders. The sample is composed of 42 US listed financial companies that filed for Chapter 11 between 1998 and 2011. To highlight the differences between bankrupting and healthy firms, a matching sample composed of 42 randomly picked healthy US listed financial companies is collected. We concentrate on financial institutions, whereas the existing literature pays considerably greater attention to the industrial sector. This research imbalance is remarkable and particularly unexpected in the wake of recent financial scandals. Literature points out two main approaches on bankruptcy prediction： （1） purely mathematical; and （2） approaches based on a combination of auditor knowledge, expertise, and experience. The use of data mining techniques allows us to benefit from the best features of both approaches. Statistical tools used in the analysis are： Logit regression, support vector machines （SVMs）, and an AdaBoost meta-algorithm. Findings show a quite low reliability of GCOs in predicting bankruptcy. It is likely that auditors consider further information in supporting their audit opinions, aside from financial-economic ratios. The scant predictive ability of auditors might be due to critical relationships with distressed clients, as suggested by recent literature.