The effects of offshoring on wages: a meta-analysis

Review of World Economics - Offshoring, either as FDI or offshore outsourcing, is a phenomenon of increasing importance that has been widely studied in the economics literature. Studies analysing...     

Directed technical change and environmental quality

Portuguese Economic Journal - We propose a directed technical change model with two sectors, clean and dirty, to analyze the impact of the degree of substitutability between sectors and the degree...     

Testing the compounding structure of the CP-INARCH model

A statistical test to distinguish between a Poisson INARCH model and a Compound Poisson INARCH model is proposed, based on the form of the probability generating function of the compounding distribution of the conditional law of the model. For first-order autoregression, the normality of the test statistics’ asymptotic distribution is established, either in the case where the model parameters are specified, or when such parameters are consistently estimated. As the test statistics’ law involves the moments of inverse conditional means of the Compound Poisson INARCH process, the analysis of their existence and calculation is performed by two approaches. For higher-order autoregressions, we use a bootstrap implementation of the test. A simulation study illustrating the finite-sample performance of this test methodology in what concerns its size and power concludes the paper.     

Amino acid formula as a new strategy for diagnosing cow’s milk allergy in infants: is it cost-effective?

Aims: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a new strategy that uses an amino acid formula in the elimination diet of infants with suspected cow’s milk allergy (CMA).

Materials and methods: This pharmacoeconomic study was developed from the perspective of the Brazilian Public Healthcare System. The new strategy proposes using an amino acid formula in the diagnostic elimination diet of infants (≤24 months) with suspected CMA. The rationale is that infants who do not respond to the amino acid formula do not suffer from CMA. Patients with a positive oral challenge test receive a therapeutic elimination diet based on Brazilian Food Allergy Guidelines. This approach was compared to the current recommendations of the Brazilian Food Allergy Guidelines. A decision model was constructed using TreeAge Pro 2012 software. Model inputs were based on a literature review and the opinions of a panel of experts. A univariate sensitivity analysis of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios was performed.

Results: The mean cost per patient of the new amino acid formula strategy was R$3,341.57, while the cost of the current Brazilian guidelines strategy was R$3,641.08. The mean number of symptom-free days per patient, which was used as an indicator of effectiveness, was 900.6 and 875.7 days, respectively. The new strategy is, therefore, dominant. In the sensitivity analysis, the dominance was maintained with parameter variation.

Limitations: In the absence of information in the literature, some premises were defined by a panel of specialists.

Conclusions: The new strategy, which uses an amino acid formula in the elimination diagnostic diet followed by an oral food challenge, is a dominant pharmacoeconomic approach that has a lower cost and results in an increased number of symptom-free days.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies

We analyse the relationship between public debt, economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The results indicate that the limits of public debt are negatively related to economic growth and exhibit, from a given level of debt, an inverted U behaviour regarding the relationship between economic growth and public debt. Briefly, the high levels of public debt are coincident with reduced rates of economic growth and rising levels of inflation. Our results for three specific geographical areas resemble those of the overall analysis, despite some differences. In North African countries, the growth rates of the gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation also show an inverted U behaviour as the ratio of public debt/GDP increases. The highest rate of economic growth is recorded when the ratio of public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP and corresponds to an average inflation rate of 5.33%. An identical behaviour of the GDP growth rates and inflation also appears in Sub‐Saharan countries until the third interval (60–90%). However, the highest growth rate of the GDP and GDP per capita is registered when the public debt/GDP ratio is in the second interval (30–60%). For the countries of the Southern Africa Development Community, the highest average rate of economic growth (6.8%) is similar to North African countries, when the ratio public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP, with an average inflation rate of 11%. A number of robustness analyses were performed and the great majority of them confirm the general analysis.     

Costly search and consideration sets in storable goods markets

Costly search can result in consumers restricting their attention to a subset of products–the consideration set–before making a final purchase decision. The search process is usually not observed, which creates econometric challenges. I show that inventory and the availability of different package sizes create new sources of variation to identify search costs in storable goods markets. To evaluate the importance of costly search in these markets, I estimate a dynamic choice model with search frictions using data on purchases of laundry detergent. My estimates show that consumers incur significant search costs, and ignoring costly search overestimates the own-price elasticity for products more often present in consideration sets and underestimates the elasticity of frequently excluded products. Firms employ marketing devices, such as product displays and advertising, to influence consideration sets. These devices have direct and strategic effects, which I explore using the estimates of the model. I find that using marketing devices to reduce a product’s search cost during a price promotion has modest effects on the overall category revenues, and decreases the revenues of some products.     

Does asymmetric information always help entry deterrence? Can it increase welfare?

This paper compares the scenarios of complete and incomplete information in a general model where the incumbent can make a capital investment to deter entry. We show that the informational structure can make an unexpected difference in terms of entry deterrence and efficiency. Although asymmetric information encourages entry deterrence behavior, in some cases it decreases the probability of this behavior inducing no entry and thus promotes competition. In other cases, asymmetric information induces less entry but may lead to higher welfare.     

Convergence in Brazil: recent trends and long-run prospects

This paper applies to the analysis of the interstate income distribution in Brazil a set of techniques that have been widely used in the current empirical literature on growth and convergence. Usual measures of dispersion in the interstate income distribution (the coefficient of variation and Theil's index) suggest that sigma-convergence was an unequivocal feature of the regional growth experience in Brazil, between 1970 and 1986. After 1986, the process of convergence seems, however, to have slowed down almost to a halt. A standard growth model is shown to fit the regional data well and to explain a substantial amount of the variation in growth rates, providing estimates of the speed of (conditional) beta-convergence of approximately 3% p.a. Different estimates of the long-run distribution implied by the recent growth trends point towards further reductions in the interstate income inequality, but also suggest that the relative per capita incomes of a significant number of states and the number of ‘very poor’ and ‘poor’ states were, in 1995, already quite close to their steady-state values.     

Natural Resources,Wage Growth and Institutions – a Panel Approach

This paper exam,ines the effect of nat,u,ral resource export depen,dence and fis,cal respon,si,bil,ity on wage growth, which is derived from the labour first‐order con,di,tion and esti,mated using a panel growth‐account,ing frame,work. Using annual data, the study accounts for the var,i,abil,ity of resource rev,e,nues, one of the major dif,fi,cul,ties of man,ag,ing these resources. The con,trol vari,ables include the most cru,cial growth fac,tors. Due to insuf,fi,cient annual data, human cap,i,tal is only con,sid,ered inside wages as in many endog,e,nous growth mod,els. We esti,mate the influ,ence on real wage growth aris,ing from the growth‐impacts of nat,u,ral resources through labour and cap,i,tal effi,ciency while con,trol,ling for fis,cal respon,si,bil,ity, which proves a suit,able proxy for pol,i,cies and insti,tu,tions in a sin,gle‐panel case. The results show that respon,si,ble fis,cal pol,icy, assessed by the bud,get bal,ance, pre,vents (var,i,able) dif,fuse and point‐source resources from hin,der,ing real wage growth (through labour effi,ciency), a result also sig,nif,i,cant in a sub‐sam,ple of un‐free coun,tries. The hypoth,e,sis of a resource curse work,ing through insti,tu,tions and reflected on real wage growth holds for resource export shares, but not adjust,ing for re‐expor,ta,tion. Over,all, resource effects are jointly insig,nif,i,cant, even though point‐source resources show a positive impact through cap,i,tal effi,ciency.     

INSTITUTIONS,ECONOMICS AND THE DEVELOPMENT QUEST

Institutions crucial for the analysis of how agents deal with uncertainty have been gaining increasing relevance on the economic research agenda. In this paper, we analyze the institutional literature aiming to explain why this perspective obtains better results than others in development economics. In particular, we stress the relevance of New Institutional Economics as an adequate framework for a broad understanding of development issues.