Procurement cost reduction for customized non-critical items in an automotive supply chain: An action research project

This paper presents the processes involved in organizing a buyers' fair, a fair where first- and second-tier suppliers of the automotive industry make known their buying requirements for non-critical items to SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises). The fair allowed the procurement process of LCs (large companies) and the prospecting process of SMEs to be faster and less-expensive. The fair was the result of an action research project performed by the researchers in partnership with the Brazilian Federation of Industries.     

The impact on broadband access to the Internet of the dual ownership of telephone and cable networks

In Portugal, until recently, the telecommunications incumbent offered broadband access to the Internet, both through digital subscriber line and cable modem. We estimate the impact on broadband access to the Internet of the structural separation of these two businesses. Using a panel of consumer level data and a random effects mixed logit model, we estimate the price elasticities of demand and the marginal costs of broadband access to the Internet. Based on these estimates, we simulate the effect of structural separation on prices and social welfare. Our estimates indicate that structural separation would cause a substantial welfare increase. These results raise questions about the policy of some countries of allowing the dual ownership of telephone and cable networks.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.     

Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields

We assess the short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries using a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration. Given the existence of cross-country dependence regarding sovereign yields and its determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect estimator of Pesaran and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that in addition to common movements in sovereign yields, investors also consider country differences arising from specific factors (inflation, budgetary and current account imbalances, real effective exchange rates, and liquidity).     

The skill premium and economic growth with costly investment,complementarities and international technological-knowledge diffusion

We analyse the skill premium and the growth rate in an innovator-imitator general equilibrium growth model assuming (i) internal costly investment in both physical capital and R&D, (ii) complementarities between intermediate goods in production and (iii) technological-knowledge diffusion. We find that in the imitator country these three elements influence the economic growth rate and the skill premium. In the innovator country, while the growth rate is affected by costly investment and complementarities, the skill premium is not affected by any of our assumptions. It depends solely on the productive advantage of high-skilled over low-skilled labour, which suggests that the sustained increase in the skill premium observed in several developed countries over the last three decades may have been due to increases in such productive advantage.     

Comprehensive Homeowners Microinsurance in Brazil: Estimation of Pricing and Market Potential

This study examines the question of comprehensive microinsurance for Brazilian homeowners. In particular, the study calculates (i) pricing for selected types of microinsurance homeowner's coverages and insured amounts and (ii) the estimated market potential of this product. The Brazilian agency charged with responsibility for regulation of private insurance, SUSEP, has determined that microinsurance should be aimed at families with a monthly per capita income of up to two minimum wages. According to this criterion, the study finds that there are more than 42 million households in Brazil eligible for microinsurance. The study also finds that microinsurance premiums for these households would be very low (US $0.97 to 2.03 per month)—less than 1% of average household income. This type of insurance would certainly be viable, considering the calculated market size of approximately US $780 million per year. These figures show that there is significant potential for the expansion of the microinsurance market in Brazil.     

Leader＇s Human Capital as an Alternative for Relational Leadership

The current research attempts to revitalize contingency leadership theory. Instead of focusing on subordinate attributes as a substitute for leadership theory, this study examines leader＇s human capital attributes as a leadership contingency variable. This paper offers a fresh perspective to contingency leadership literature by exploring a new set of variables. Addressing leader-member exchange （LMX） rather than the conventional focus on leader＇s behaviors, this study examines previously untested contingency variables. Using a matched sample of leaders and employees from Portuguese firms, this study examines leader＇s education and leader＇s organizational tenure as alternatives for LMX with assessed job performance and organizational citizenship as dependent variables. Testing new independent variables sheds additional light on contingency approaches to leadership; as a result, this paper improves the current state of research on contingency leadership. Results seem to indicate that leader＇s education is an alternative for LMX as well as suggesting that the leader＇s organizational tenure improves LMX. This paper proposes that research focusing on the substitute for leadership may need to examine a different set of variables to determine the viability of contingency approaches to leadership.     

The Role of Financial,Macroeconomic, and Non-financial Information in Bank Loan Default Timing Prediction

We assess the use of bank loan information in predicting the timing to default. We use unique data on defaults in small and medium enterprises maintained by the Central Bank of Portugal which includes financial accounting and macroeconomic indicators, as well as non-financial information. The findings are indicative of the incremental predictive ability of non-financial information over and above macroeconomic and financial accounting information in the baseline, industry, and in- and out-of-sample models. Specifically, total credit secured by firms is, as expected, negatively and significantly related to default. Gross domestic product is negatively and significantly related to default, and benchmark market rate is positively and significantly associated with default. The findings also reveal that firms which are operated by partners, which have stronger financial support from partners, and which possess operational assets exhibit lower hazards of default. The study indicates that non-financial information and macroeconomic indicators assessed alongside financial accounting data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default models.     

A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability

We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880–2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using structural time series models, we conclude that since in most cases non-stationarity can be rejected, longer-run fiscal sustainability is not rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same is true for a panel analysis when allowing for multiple structural breaks, and for cross-country dependence. In addition, endogenously identified breaks can be related to episodes of sovereign default.