Labour-market institutions, (un)employment,wages, and growth: theory and data

We analyse the implications of labour-market institutions on wage inequality in favour of skilled labour, on relative unemployment of unskilled labour, and on the economic growth rate in two clusters resulting from 27 OECD countries: Cluster 1, closely related with the Anglo-Saxon model, and Cluster 2, dominated by the Continental-European model. By linking the unskilled wage to the skilled one in Cluster 2, due to the indexation of social benefits to per-capita income, we accommodate the observed paths of the three variables in both clusters between 1991 and 2008: Cluster 1 presents a higher wage inequality in favour of skilled labour, a lower unemployment of the unskilled labour, and a better economic growth rate.     

Portugal’s banking and financial crises: unexpected consequences of monetary integration?

Portugal’s current financial crisis might be related to a banking crisis resulting from joining the Euro. The new-currency eliminated the exchange rate risk, but not the credit or liquidity risks within the Euroarea. However, Portuguese banks acted as if all of these risks had disappeared. They began pumping money in Portugal, by borrowing intensively in Euros abroad at low interest rates. The ensuing liquidity generated a capital-flow bonanza boom that culminated in a bust phase. Private and sovereign debt dramatically increased, which further soared when the government rescued banks. Portugal was then compelled to take extreme measures to address extraordinary debt-levels.     

Determinants of nonresident government debt ownership

We examine the determinants of nonresident government debt ownership, accounting for domestic and external factors and financial variables during the period 2000Q2–2014Q4, focussing on a small euro area open economy: Portugal. Our results show that better fiscal positions, higher systematic stress in Europe and higher shares of monetary and financial institutions (MFI) cross-border holdings of public debt, increase the share of nonresident held debt, and rising sovereign yields decrease that ratio.     

Current account balance cyclicality

We assess the cyclicality of current account balances for the period 2001Q1–2014Q4, focusing on Portugal and using Germany as a benchmark. We find that the cyclical component of the current account was positively explained by 3-month Euribor, but negatively by the financial crisis, systemic stress in Europe, employment and compensation of employees. Moreover, the noncyclical current account was positively affected by the period of the economic and financial adjustment programme and the terms of trade, but negatively influenced by financial integration.     

Markups’ cyclical behaviour: the role of demand and supply shocks

We assess how demand and supply shocks (identified via the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural vector autoregression approach) in 14 OECD countries affect markups. We find that individual responses of markups to demand shocks push down the markup for most countries (confirmed in the panel analysis). On the other hand, a supply shock has a more mixed effect.     

R&D Subsidies and Foreign Direct Investment

We devise a model in which domestic firms do applied R&D, which can be subsidized by the government, and foreign firms with superior technology can enter in the domestic market. Foreign Direct Investment can act as a substitute of subsidies to improve domestic R&D, the share of domestic leading firms and consumption. Relatively closed economies may benefit from R&D subsidization while relatively open economies may not. For relatively low growth of the technological frontier, it is optimal to subsidize R&D and close the economy to foreign investment but the opposite happens for relatively high growth. Numerical simulations show the economy dynamics after policy experiments.     

Capitalist development and agrarian structure in Brazil

Les tendences divergeantes de la structure agraire dans diverses parties du Brésil sont le thème de cet article. Le développement capitaliste dans les régions rurales de São Paolo, et la préservation/destruction des formes archaïques de production dans le nord-est sont analysés en terme des catégories et stages de développement capitaliste qui évoluent au pays. En considérant ce dernier dans son ensemble, une attention particulière est donnée à l'état. Depuis le début de l'industrialisation, l'industrie et l'agriculture ont toujours eu une relation ambiguë et contradictoire, et ceçi à la fois dans l'exportation et dans les marchés internes. Ceçi explique le caractère composite de l'état et la préservation d'une agriculture primitive. La préservation de la grande entreprise agro-merchantile et des formes archaïques de l'agriculture avait des fonctions distinctes pour l'accumulation du capital dans les secteurs non-agraires. Cet article examine aussi les tendances les plus récentes dans l'organisation agraire en relation avec les caractéristiques spécifiques de la nouvelle étape acquise par le capitalisme au Brésil. Une fois de plus, Côte à côte avec l'accroissement de la c?apitalisme agraire, dans la région de São Paolo (suivit par l'émergence d'un proletariat rural plus pur, la méchanisation massive et l'augmentation rapide de la composition organique du capital agraire), se produit l'extension et la récréation continuelle de la paysannerie latifundia dans les régions éloignées du pays. Un tel développement inégal dans les régions rurales coexiste avec le développement capitaliste dans son ensemble.     

Maturity and volatility effects on UK smiles

The smile effect is a result of an empirical observation of the options implied volatility with the same expiration date, across different exercise prices. However, its shape has been under discussion seeming to be dependent on the option underlying security. In this paper, and filling up a scarce empirical research on the topic, we used liquid equity options on 9 stocks traded on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) between August 1990 and December 1991. We tested two different hypothesis for testing two different phenomena: (1) the increase of the smile as maturity approaches; (2) and the association between the smile and the volatility of the underlying stock. In order to estimate implied volatilities for unavailable exercise prices, we modelled the smile using cubic B-spline curves. We found empirical support for the smile intensification (the U-shape is more pronounced) as maturity approaches as well as when volatility rises. However, we found two major sources of disagreement with the literature on stochastic volatility models. First, as maturity approaches, out-of-the-money options implied volatility tends to be higher than the implied volatility of in-the-money options. Second, as the volatility of the underlying asset increases, the implied volatility of in-the-money options tends to be higher than implied volatility of out-of-the-money options.Received: September 2001, Accepted: September 2003, JEL Classification: G13Correspondence to: João L. C. DuqueWe thank Professor Dean A. Paxson (University of Manchester), António Sousa Câmara (University of Strathclyde), Ser-Huang Poon (University of Lancaster) and the attendees of the 26th EFA Annual Conference for helpful comments on previous versions of this paper. We also want to thank to two anonymous referees for their relevant comments and suggestions. Financial support granted by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) and the Programa Praxis XXI is gratefully acknowledged.     

Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections

Most election forecasting research to date has been conducted in the context of single-round elections. However, more than 40 countries in the world employ a two-stage process, where actual voting data are available between the first and the second rounds to help politicians understand their position in relation to each other and to voter preferences and to help them predict the final outcome of the election. In this study we take advantage of the theoretical foundation on voter behavior from the political science literature and the recent methodological advances in choice modeling to develop a Nested Logit Factor Model of voter choice which we use to predict the final outcome of two stage elections and gain insights about the underlying political landscape. We apply the proposed model to data from the first stage and predict the final outcome of two stage elections based on the inferences made from the first stage results. We demonstrate how our proposed model can help politicians understand their competitive position immediately after the first round of actual voting and test its predictive accuracy in the run-off election across 11 different state governorship elections.