Before ‘Independence’ Arrived: Interdependence in Energy Relations between Lithuania and Russia

This paper analyses energy relations concerning natural gas between Lithuania and Russia. Contrary to the existing literature, which stresses Lithuanian energy dependence, this paper argues that there had been interdependence between the two countries even before Lithuania underwent diversification at the end of 2014. The paper develops an analytical framework that examines: (a) physical energy relations, (b) the dominance of the energy agenda in mutual relations, and (c) the influence of the European Union. The analysis shows that while Lithuania was dependent on Russian supplies of natural gas, Russia was also dependent on Lithuania as a transit country of gas to Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave. Although Russia has shown a much higher willingness to employ an energy weapon than Lithuania, its efforts to exercise pressure on Lithuania have been negatively affected by the Baltic state’s position as a transit country. The European Union has played a crucial role as its pre-accession requirements and internal energy market rules have significantly influenced the energy relationship between the two countries.     

Export-led growth: the case of the Slovenian and Estonian economies

The export-led growth hypothesis is investigated in the case of the two small, open and export-oriented Slovenian and Estonian economies. The Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test were applied to investigate the relationship between the time series variables for export, import and gross domestic product (GDP). The results reveal evidence to support the export-led growth hypothesis in both economies. The Granger causality relationship is found between export growth and economic (GDP) growth for both countries. Slovenia and Estonia can enhance economic growth by providing a better enabling environment for exporters and by market expansion.     

The influence of gender on the effectiveness of probability markers in advertising

The results of two studies reveal that gender plays a moderating role on the effects that the use of probability markers (hedges – e.g., possibly, could help; and pledges – e.g., definitely, without a doubt) in advertising copy has on consumers' attitudes towards the brand advertised and purchase intentions. Women, as comprehensive processors, are not particularly sensitive to probability markers, which function as heuristic cues. Men, on the other hand, display higher levels of sensitivity towards probability marker usage; more precisely, their responses show preference towards the use of hedges over both pledges and no probability markers in advertising copy. Interactions with product category involvement, buying motivation (hedonic or utilitarian), and familiarity with the brand advertised are also explored.     

Continuity Under a Different Name: The Outcome of Privatisation in Serbia

Normally, privatisation is seen as beneficial. This paper considers the case of Serbia – a latecomer in the matter – where privatisation was partly a result of exogenous pressures and where the process has been deemed a failure. In Serbia, a sizeable number of privatised firms were bought by bureaucrats and politicians and all firms were subjected to a period of supervision. We argue that the design of this process allowed rent-seekers to conserve their privileges through asset-stripping, which explains the failure. In order to do so, we perform an empirical analysis of the determinants of liquidation, merger and bankruptcy of privatised firms from 2002 to 2015. We construct a novel data set from primary sources, free of the ‘survivorship bias’ and containing proxies for various types of owners, indirect signs of asset-stripping strategy and a broad range of controls. Our results indicate that firms owned by politicians faced significantly higher risks of bankruptcy, especially after the end of supervision.     

Methods of Partial Hedging

In this article we survey methods of dealing with the following problem: A financial agent is trying to hedge a claim C, without having enough initial capital to perform a perfect (super) replication. In particular, we describe results for minimizing the expected loss of hedging the claim C both in complete and incomplete continuous-time financial market models, and for maximizing the probability of perfect hedge in complete markets and markets with partial information. In these cases, the optimal strategy is in the form of a binary option on C, depending on the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the equivalent martingale measure which is optimal for a corresponding dual problem. We also present results on dynamic measures for the risk associated with the liability C, defined as the supremum over different scenarios of the minimal expected loss of hedging C. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Beliefs regarding fundamental value and optimal investing

Standard optimal portfolio selection models take no account of the special information that active investors believe they possess. For example, active investors who believe they can place bounds on the price of a security will want to use that information when assessing risk and expected return in order to construct an optimal portfolio. In this paper, we use two continuous-time models to analyze how placing boundaries on the price of a stock affects assessed risk, expected returns, and the optimal holdings of an active investor, and how those vary as a function of the relation between the stock price and the boundaries. In particular, the optimal strategy takes significant long/short positions as the price nears its lower/upper boundary.     

iNTeg-Risk project: concept and first results

In 2012, the iNTeg-Risk project (www.integrisk.eu-vri.eu) has successfully finished its first 3?years of work. At this point, the project has already yielded a part of large set of results envisaged for its 4.5?years long work plan. This paper recalls the main goals of the project and analyzes the results delivered; as for instance, the work done in single emerging risk representative applications, the work on the development on the iNTeg-Risk paradigm, framework and methodologies of/for emerging risk management, the work on ‘iNTeg-Risk 1StopShop’ (the platform for integrating project results) and its main elements –Risk Atlas, RiskEars (the database of early emerging risk indications/notions), the database of key performance indicators, the work on Safetypedia, etc. The work on harmonization of practices when dealing with emerging risks is certainly the most relevant result in the first years of work on the project. The work has been based on (a) the comparison of different application areas and (b) definition of the elements needed for building the ‘common European approach’ to emerging risks. Some real-life events which took place in the first 2?years of the project (e.g. oil spill in Gulf of Mexico, Fukushima disaster accident in Viareggio, incidents caused by unmanned devices, natural hazards in populated areas, …) have clearly justified some of the choices made in the definition phase of the project. In addition, they have confirmed the need to strengthen the efforts needed to achieve a common understanding about principles of dealing with emerging risks on the broader level – e.g. in the area of EU standardization where the respective preparatory work has started, too.     

Managing safety risks in helicopter maritime operations

Nowadays, helicopters have been used in maritime transportation to serve offshore platforms. This paper outlines methodology for assessing safety risks by operating in the vicinity of helidecks. During each flight, decisions must be made regarding the events that involve interactions between the four safety risk elements – the pilot in command, the aircraft, the environment and the operation. This paper evaluates helicopter crash statistics based on region and flight phase. Data collected were used for developing methodology for computing the helicopter impact frequency into facility of interest. The analysis for helicopter impact frequency calculations is based on number of operations, crash rate, frequency, average length of flight and crash area. Furthermore, the conclusion was defined based on future measurements for helicopter accidents mitigation or reduction. The presented paper contributes to safety risk assessment in helicopter maritime operations.     

Endogenous economic freedom and the wealth of nations: evidence from a panel of countries, 1996–2011

Indexes of economic freedom measure the degree to which the policies and institutions of countries are supportive of economic freedom. The authors find a considerable scope for improvement in Index of Economic Freedom, created by Heritage Foundation, since not all components of index have equal effect on economic well-being. Contrary to Heritage methodology the authors tackle the aggregation bias and highlight that each index component contributes differently to the level of economic freedom and subsequently to the level of income per capita. The level of fiscal freedom and monetary freedom exert the strongest influence on the overall index of economic freedom. Authors present the new endogenous cross-country ranking of 135 countries from Instrumental Variable-Two Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS) empirical specification which removes the inconsistencies arising from the arbitrary assumption of the equivalent effect of each component on the overall index and, hence, the level of real income per capita.