Term structure of interest rates in the Singapore Asian dollar market

This paper investigates empirically the term structure of interest rates in the Singapore Asian Dollar Market. We consider extended versions of the ARCH-M model of Engle, Lilien, and Robins (1987). The extended models permit autocorrelation, skewness and leptokurtosis in the residuals. The robustness of the empirical tests with respect to alternative specifications of the ARCH process is examined. It turns out that there is significant time-varying term premium, and this conclusion is independent of the hypothesized ARCH model.     

Modernisation or Failure? IT Development Projects in the UK Public Sector

The notable lack of success in UK public sector IT development projects has been recently recognised in policy making circles and considerable efforts are now being made to improve the situation. However, the lessons officially being drawn from the UK public sector's IT development failures, while eminently sensible, do appear simplistic and even superficial. This paper applies permanent failure theory to the stream of IT development failures in an attempt to offer some alternatives to the official lessons.     

FIRST-MOVER (DIS) ADVANTAGE AND REAL OPTIONS

Fear of losing first-mover advantages has caused many corporate strategists to ignore real options analysis and simply go ahead with any project that they think is expected to have a positive net present value. But first-mover advantages are not nearly as valuable as most strategists tend to assume. This article weighs the expected value of first-mover advantages against the benefits of the real option arising from delay and flexibility. The real options model recognizes the value of delaying projects until important sources of uncertainty and risk can be resolved.
After reviewing two well-known cases of successful second movers—the triumph of VHS over Betamax in VCRs and Microsoft's remarkable late software entries—the authors go on to present more broadly based historical evidence for their view that first-mover advantages often fail to confer lasting value. The article closes with an assessment of first-mover advantages in the new economy, including a brief look at recent developments in the Internet and telecom sectors.     

Due diligence during the integration of physician groups

While contemplating physician group integration, providers should perform due diligence and ask questions in several key areas to ensure successful integrations: Financial--Is the group producing the revenue expected, and is the revenue cycle managed effectively? Statistical--What are the numbers of encounters, procedures, surgeries, and ancillaries? Compliance--Has the group developed and operated a sound compliance program, and has compliance been a priority? Succession--How many physicians are within three to five years of retirement?     

The Tradable-Permits Approach to Protecting the Commons: Lessons for Climate Change

Tradable-permit approaches for rationing access to the commonshave been applied to many different types of resources in manydifferent countries. This essay reviews the experience withthree main applications of tradable-permit systems—air-pollutioncontrol, water supply, and fisheries management—as wellas some unique related programmes. The purpose of the reviewis to draw together what we have learned about tradable permitsin practice that might offer some useful insights for the implementationof the three tradable-permit mechanisms that are part of theKyoto Protocol.     

A comparison of the effect of retail purchase and direct marketing on the endowment effect

This article reports on a study comparing the effect of the retail and direct marketing channels of delivery on the endowment effect. The results demonstrated the endowment effect for both retail and direct marketing channels of product delivery. In addition, in the direct marketing channel, the endowment effect was strengthened by the physical, tangible possession of products at the point of product receipt compared to its virtual possession value at the point of purchase. In the retail channel of delivery, confirming consumer expectation with the possession of the product at the point of purchase resulted in the strengthening of the endowment effect compared to the unexpected out‐of‐stock retail situation. Contrary to expectations, the duration of the product possession did not affect product valuation. Managerial implications are discussed. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A multivariate Poisson mixture model for marketing applications

This paper describes a multivariate Poisson mixture model for clustering supermarket shoppers based on their purchase frequency in a set of product categories. The multivariate nature of the model accounts for cross-selling effects between the purchases made in different product categories. However, for computational reasons, most multivariate approaches limit the covariance structure by including just one common interaction term, or by not including any covariance at all. Although this reduces the number of parameters significantly, it is often too simplistic as typically multiple interactions exist on different levels. This paper proposes a theoretically more complete variance/covariance structure of the multivariate Poisson model, based on domain knowledge or preliminary statistical analysis of significant purchase interaction effects in the data. Consequently, the model does not contain more parameters than necessary, whilst still accounting for the existing covariance in the data. Practically, retail category managers can use the model to devise customized merchandising strategies.     

Effects of Family Policy Reforms in Norway: Results from a Joint Labour Supply and Childcare Choice Microsimulation Analysis*

Mothers of pre‐school children represent one part of the population that might be able to increase its labour supply. We discuss the effects of family policy changes that encourage the labour supply of these mothers, such as childcare fee reductions and increased availability of centre‐based care. The effects of policy changes are described by using a joint labour supply and childcare choice decision model. Detailed empirical results are provided with respect to mothers' labour supply, families' childcare choices, public expenditures, and distributions of income and money metric utility.