美国NASDAQ市场透视

伴随着美国经济的发展步伐，NASDAQ于1971年正式运行：20世纪90年代达到鼎盛；进入21世纪，NASDAQ股指连续两次大幅下跌，昔日风光不再。鉴于美国当前的经济现实，NASDAQ要复兴，尚需时日。     

China's Abolition of the Agricultural Tax,Local Governments’ Responses and Economic Growth

When evaluating agricultural policy changes, much of the attention in the literature has been limited to agricultural productivity growth. This study demonstrates that, under a regionally decentralised authority system, the effect of China's abolition of the agricultural tax (AAT) in 2004–05 extended beyond the realm of agriculture. We find that, following the AAT reform, Chinese counties with higher reliance on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the AAT reform experienced higher agricultural economic growth, as expected, but lower non‐agricultural economic growth in the short run. This growth‐inhibiting effect of the AAT reform on non‐agricultural production in the short run can be explained, to some extent, by the increased non‐agricultural taxation due to the insufficient funds that Chinese county governments received from the upper‐level governments following the AAT reform; the magnitude of this tax increase was associated with the degree to which each county relied on agricultural taxation for budgetary revenue prior to the reform. In addition, our results show that the AAT reform resulted in a high level of regional inequality in terms of non‐agricultural GDP per capita. In summary, our study shows that although the AAT reform succeeded in promoting agricultural production, such accomplishments were achieved at the cost of lower non‐agricultural output growth and higher regional inequality of non‐agricultural GDP per capita at the county level.     

Subsidizing research programs with “if” and “when” uncertainty in the face of severe informational constraints

We study subsidy policies for research programs when firms have private information about the likelihood of project viability, but the government cannot form a unique prior about this likelihood. When the shadow cost of public funds is zero, first‐best welfare can be attained as a (belief‐free) ex post equilibrium under both monopoly and competition, but it cannot be attained when the shadow cost is positive. However, max‐min subsidy policies exist under monopoly and competition and consist of pure matching subsidies. Under a Research and Development (R&D) consortium, the highest max‐min matching rate is lower than under competition, and R&D investment intensity is higher.     

Price- vs. Quantity-Based Monetary Policies and Credit Substitution Asymmetry

The literature on the informal credit channels of the transmission of monetary policy overlooks the distinction between price- and quantity-based policies. This article contributes to filling this gap by investigating the asymmetric effects of the two types of policies on trade-credit substitution for bank credit using data from the largest emerging economy, China. China presents an ideal experimental context, as the country has implemented both types of monetary policies in the past decades. We find strong evidence that quantity-based monetary policy has stronger effects on credit substitution in China. This evidence is robust under both static and dynamic specifications, which remains intact after the disentanglement of the interdependency of the two types of policies. By subgrouping, we find that large and state-controlled firms play the central role in creating the substitution asymmetry. Furthermore, international evidence indicates that India also witnesses substitution asymmetry skewed to quantity-based policies. The findings suggest the need for further reform of China’s financial system toward a market-based system to enhance the effectiveness of the proposed monetary policies.     

企业科研项目的协同创新模式探讨

从协同创新的理论出发,认为在科技进步日新月异、环境复杂多变的新形势下,企业要想提高竞争力,必须进行科研项目的协同创新,即通过技术外包、虚拟组织、与相关企业合作和与公共科研机构合作的形式,整合外部优势资源,以突破内部资源约束,减少建设核心竞争力的时间成本,提高企业科研能力,缩短产品研发周期。     

浅论影响我国房地产市场的因素及因素的影响

本文主要通过分析影响我国房地产市场继续上扬的因素,包括我国宏观经济将持续保持良好势头、城市化水平的迅速提高、人民币仍处于升值通道中等;以及促使房地产市场回归理性的因素,包括加息、加大保障性住房的供给力度、提高房贷首付、房地产开发及土地储备贷款受到严格管控、开征物业税等;并且具体分析了它们是如何影响市场的,并最终得出结论。     

Estimation and tests for power-transformed and threshold GARCH models

Consider a class of power-transformed and threshold GARCH(p,q)$(p,q)$ (PTTGRACH(p,q)$(p,q)$) model, which is a natural generalization of power-transformed and threshold GARCH(1,1) model in Hwang and Basawa [2004. Stationarity and moment structure for Box–Cox transformed threshold GARCH(1,1) processes. Statistics & Probability Letters 68, 209–220.] and includes the standard GARCH model and many other models as special cases. We first establish the asymptotic normality for quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE) of the parameters under the condition that the error distribution has finite fourth moment. For the case of heavy-tailed errors, we propose a least absolute deviations estimation (LADE) for PTTGARCH(p,q)$(p,q)$ model, and prove that the LADE is asymptotically normally distributed under very weak moment conditions. This paves the way for a statistical inference based on asymptotic normality for heavy-tailed PTTGARCH(p,q)$(p,q)$ models. As a consequence, we can construct the Wald test for GARCH structure and discuss the order selection problem in heavy-tailed cases. Numerical results show that LADE is more accurate than QMLE for heavy-tailed errors. Furthermore, the theory is applied to the daily returns of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, which suggests that asymmetry and nonlinearity could be present in the financial time series and the PTTGARCH model is capable of capturing these characteristics. As for the probabilistic structure of PTTGARCH(p,q)$(p,q)$ model, we give in the appendix a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a strictly stationary solution of the model, the existence of the moments and the tail behavior of the strictly stationary solution.     

促进自主知识产权发展的国际经验

文章认为,鉴于知识产权在经济发展中的重要作用,很多国家都采取措施发展自主知识产权,主要有：制定实施国家知识产权战略、促进知识产权创造、加强知识产权管理、强化知识产权保护、推进知识产权应用,以及实施知识产权人才战略等。总结这些经验,对我国有重大的启示意义。     

基于KPI的虚拟物流企业运行绩效评估研究

文中通过确定虚拟物流企业整体绩效和每个成员企业绩效的考核维度,然后进行各个维度下的 KPI解析,构建 KPI 绩效考核体系,为虚拟物流企业的整合者对此动态联盟进行调整以确定最优联盟结构方案及合作伙伴选定和参与方式提供依据.     

Capital Structure Choice in a Nascent Market: Evidence from Listed Firms in China

We study the capital structure decisions of listed firms in China between 1992 and 2001. The Chinese market exhibits high information asymmetry, phenomenal growth, highly concentrated ownership, and a lack of external market for corporate control. We find that Chinese firms use little long-term debt, which is positively (negatively) related to firm size and tangibility (profitability and growth options). These results are robust to the degree of seasoning after the initial public offering and private versus State ownership. Although industry membership is important, the development and growth of the stock market did not affect the long-term debt ratios over the years.