Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal

A country’s economic dependence on its trade with various other countries is often expressed in terms of trade values and shares. A country’s vulnerability to economic coercion by the countries with which it trades is similarly expressed in such terms. Using the recent issues relating to Australia’s coal trade with China as an example, we propose a better framework for assessing vulnerability to coercive trade instruments. We argue that the capacity for a given export trade to fund real consumption is a superior indicator of economic vulnerability than the simple value of the underlying trade flow. Our framework takes account of trade diversion, foreign capital ownership, the terms of trade, resource mobility, and capital and production tax rates. Using this framework, we demonstrate that the damage from trade sanction is far less than might be expected from a simple focus on the value of the affected trade flow alone.     

A Flexicurity Labour Market in the Great Recession: The Case of Denmark

Flexicurity labour markets are characterised by flexible hiring/firing rules, a generous social safety net, and active labour market policies. How can such labour markets cope with the consequences of the Great Recession? This paper takes a closer look at this question considering the case of Denmark. It is found that employment adjustment is not particularly large in international comparison, but a larger burden of adjustment is along the extensive (number of employees) rather than the intensive (hours) margin. The level of job creation is high, and remains so despite the crisis, although job creation is pro-cyclical and job-separation counter-cyclical. As a consequence most unemployment spells remain short. Comparative evidence does not suggest that flexicurity markets are more prone to persistence. Crucial for this is the design of the social safety net and in particular the active labour market policy. However, it is a challenge to maintain the efficiency of the activation system in a period with high unemployment.     

Medium,message and advertising effectiveness in the Greek processed meats industry

This paper examines the effectiveness of advertising in the fast-growing Greek processed meats sector using an unbalanced panel data set of 34 firms during the period 1983–1997. In analysing the relationship between firms' sales and advertising this study differentiates between the type/content of the advertising message and the medium used to communicate it. Advertising expenditures are disaggregated into company and product campaigns in television, radio, and print media. Empirical results strongly reject the hypothesis of homogeneous consumer response to all kinds of advertising that is implicit in studies that aggregate advertising expenditures. The results also indicate an inefficient allocation of advertising resources by the firms of the sector; advertising in the least utilized print media was determined to be by far the most effective strategy during the study period.     

‘Taking on almost everyone?’ Migrant and employer recruitment strategies in a booming labour market

This paper explores the recruitment strategies of employers in the Irish Celtic Tiger boom labour market. It explores Irish employers' turn towards immigrants rather than pursuing other strategies such as raising productivity or mobilising alternative sources of labour. It demonstrates that during the boom years a more casualised approach to recruitment was favoured, privileging soft skills and competencies above credentialised skills. Immigrants became the employees of choice, not least because of issues of costs and obedience, but also because they brought new skills, in particular soft skills. Indeed, employers in some sectors developed a categorical preference for migrant workers as they recruited for attitude, work ethic and potential.     

Medical consumption over the life-cycle

We investigate the association between age and medical spending in the U.S. using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We estimate a partially linear seminonparametric model and construct “pure” life-cycle profiles of health spending simultaneously controlling for time effects (i.e., institutional changes and business cycles effects) and cohort effects (i.e., generation specific conditions). We find that time and cohort effects together introduce a significant estimation bias into predictions of health expenditures per age group, especially for individuals older than 60 years. The estimation bias introduced by cohort effects increases monotonically with age while the bias due to time effects is not significant. The overall effect of Medicare on the cohort and time effects biases is negligible.     

The long-run relationship of gold and silver and the influence of bubbles and financial crises

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. We closely follow Escribano and Granger (J Forecast 17:81–107, 1998) and extend their study. We use a longer sample period from 1970 to 2011 and study the role of bubbles and financial crises for the relationship between gold and silver prices. We find clear evidence for a co-integration relationship between gold and silver with gold prices driving the relationship. The analysis also indicates that the results are influenced by bubble-like episodes and financial crises.     

The welfare state after the great recession

The economic crisis has given rise to significant challenges to the welfare state. Given that welfare expenses account for a large proportion of all state spending in the member countries of the European Union, reducing government spending means cutting welfare measures. Yet social protection, in particular unemployment insurance benefits and minimum income support, has significantly softened the impact of the crisis for millions of individuals. The global recession calls into question the financial viability of current programmes, and the crisis is being used by some as an opportunity to roll back the welfare state permanently. The present Forum discusses challenges to and opportunities for the welfare state after the crisis.     

Cost-effectiveness of Access to Critical Cerebral Emergency Support Services (ACCESS): a neuro-emergent telemedicine consultation program

Aims: Access to Critical Cerebral Emergency Support Services (ACCESS) was developed as a low-cost solution to providing neuro-emergent consultations to rural hospitals in New Mexico that do not offer comprehensive stroke care. ACCESS is a two-way audio-visual program linking remote emergency department physicians and their patients to stroke specialists. ACCESS also has an education component in which hospitals receive training from stroke specialists on the triage and treatment of patients. This study assessed the clinical and economic outcomes of the ACCESS program in providing services to rural New Mexico from a healthcare payer perspective.

Methods: A decision tree model was constructed using findings from the ACCESS program and existing literature, the likelihood that a patient will receive a tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), cost of care, and resulting quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Data from the ACCESS program includes emergency room patients in rural New Mexico from May 2015 to August 2016. Outcomes and costs have been estimated for patients who were taken to a hospital providing neurological telecare and patients who were not.

Results: The use of ACCESS decreased neuro-emergent stroke patient transfers from rural hospitals to urban settings from 85% to 5% (no tPA) and 90% to 23% (tPA), while stroke specialist reading of patient CT/MRI imaging within 3?h of onset of stroke symptoms increased from 2% to 22%. Results indicate that use of ACCESS has the potential to save $4,241 ($3,952–$4,438) per patient and increase QALYs by 0.20 (0.14–0.22). This increase in QALYs equates to ～73 more days of life at full health. The cost savings and QALYs are expected to increase when moving from a 90-day model to a lifetime model.

Conclusion: The analysis demonstrates potential savings and improved quality-of-life associated with the use of ACCESS for patients presenting to rural hospitals with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).