On myopia as rationale for social security

It has been argued that “paternalistically motivated forced savings constitutes an important, and to some the most important, rationale for social security retirement systems.” This paper revisits the role played by myopia in generating a theoretical rationale for pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security in dynamically efficient economies. If the competing asset is linear storage and myopic agents are allowed to borrow against future pension benefits, there is no welfare-rationale for PAYG pensions. Sufficiently strong myopia may justify such pensions only if agents cannot borrow against their future pension, but then they are at a zero-saving corner. With enough myopia, co-existence of positive optimal pensions and positive private saving is possible if the return to saving declines with saving, as in a model with a neoclassical technology.     

The interplay of human and social capital in shaping entrepreneurial performance: the case of Vietnam

This study investigates the effects of human capital, social capital and their interaction on the performance of 1,398 Vietnamese new-born firms. Operating profit is used as the measure of success. Human capital is captured by individual-level professional education, start-up experience, and learning. Whereas the first two dimensions of human capital are measured with traditional indicators, we define learning as the ability to accumulate knowledge to conduct innovation activities (new product introduction, product innovation and process innovation). Social capital is measured as benefits obtained from personal strong-tie and weak-tie networks. Key findings are threefold: (i) human capital strongly predicts firm success, with learning exhibiting a statistically significant positive association with operating profit, (ii) benefits from weak ties outweigh those from strong ties, (iii) interaction of human capital and social capital displays a statistically significant positive effect on new-firm performance.     

Market dynamics, dynamic resource management and environmental policy in the context of (strong) sustainability

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between market dynamics, dynamic resource management and environmental policy. In contrast to static market entry games, this paper draws attention to the effects of market dynamics on resource dynamics et vice versa, because (1) we show that feedback processes are necessary for obtaining a better understanding of what drives the dynamics between the evolution of common-pool resources and the number of harvesters and more importantly, (2) this analysis provides an environment discussing sustainability in an appropriate inasmuch dynamic way. The paper makes the following points: based on a co-evolutionary model, which incorporates resource and market dynamics simultaneously, it is shown that an increasing number of harvesters does not necessarily imply a lower stock of the common-pool resource in the long run. Further it is shown that a tax-scheme establish an output-sharing solution for coping with the overuse of common-pool resources. This results is in contrast to the prevailing literature, which mainly discusses tax-schemes and out-sharing as substitutes rather than as complements for solving the commons-problem. This conclusion holds even if we additionally assume harvesting-cost-reducing technological progress. On the other side if policy interventions ceased, strong resource sustainability in the sense of resource conservation is not possible, given technological progress is a relevant issue.     

Duration of maternity leave in Germany: A case study of nonparametric hazard models and penalized splines

The paper investigates maternity leave behavior in West Germany for females being employed between 1995 and 2006 using data from the German Socio Economic Panel. The observational study focuses on the investigation of individual and family-related covariate effects on the duration of maternity leave following first or second childbirth, respectively. Dynamic duration time models are used in which covariate effects are allowed to vary smoothly with duration of being in maternity leave. The intention of the paper is to demonstrate with state of the art models how effects of covariables change over time and to analyse substantial differences between maternity leaves following first and second childbirth. Particularly the personal income of mothers and the educational attainment influence the decision when to return into employment. The leave period following second birth is influenced by the mothers' attachment to the labour market between their two maternity leave periods. As fitting routine penalized spline smoothing effects is employed using available software in R (http://www.r-project.org).     

Predicting the sample mean by extreme order statistics

Summary This paper considers the prediction of the sample mean by extreme order statistics when the population distribution is known. The predictor and its mean square error are found. The problem is studied in details for the normal model.     

Sequential bargaining in a market with one seller and two different buyers

A matching and bargaining model in a market with one seller and two buyers, differing only in their reservation price, is analyzed. No subgame perfect equilibrium exists for stationary strategies. We demonstrate the existence of inefficient equilibria in which the low buyer receives the good with large probability, even as friction becomes negligible. We investigate the relationship between the use of Nash and sequential bargaining. Nash bargaining seems applicable only when the sequential approach yields a unique stationary strategy subgame perfect equilibrium.     

Analysis of the technical efficiency of state rubber farms in Vietnam

This study entails an analysis of the technical efficiency of natural rubber production by state farms in Vietnam. A time-varying stochastic frontier production function model for unbalanced data is estimated for 33 farms. Individual farm technical efficiencies are reported and discussed. One of the main results concerns the bimodal distribution of technical efficiency indices. A few farms operate near the production frontier while the bulk operate well away from the frontier. Some implications are drawn from the results as a guide to future policy research work in the rubber industry in light of recent moves by the Vietnamese government towards economic reform.     

Realized volatility forecasting and market microstructure noise

We extend the analytical results for reduced form realized volatility based forecasting in ABM (2004) to allow for market microstructure frictions in the observed high-frequency returns. Our results build on the eigenfunction representation of the general stochastic volatility class of models developed byMeddahi (2001). In addition to traditional realized volatility measures and the role of the underlying sampling frequencies, we also explore the forecasting performance of several alternative volatility measures designed to mitigate the impact of the microstructure noise. Our analysis is facilitated by a simple unified quadratic form representation for all these estimators. Our results suggest that the detrimental impact of the noise on forecast accuracy can be substantial. Moreover, the linear forecasts based on a simple-to-implement ‘average’ (or ‘subsampled’) estimator obtained by averaging standard sparsely sampled realized volatility measures generally perform on par with the best alternative robust measures.