POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seemingly inconsistent analyst revisions

In about 20%–30% of cases where an analyst revises two outputs (namely, earnings estimates, target prices, or stock recommendations) simultaneously, the two estimates are revised in opposite directions. Existing literature notes that these inconsistent outputs are widespread, and concludes that they are lower-quality, driven by strategic bias, and are viewed as less valid by investors. We find that these characterizations are generally inaccurate. Apparent inconsistency is largely driven by accounting and economic factors, with only limited evidence that investment banking-related conflicts play a role. Moreover, inconsistent outputs are neither less accurate than consistent outputs nor do they resolve less investor uncertainty upon their release. Overall, our results suggest that researchers should be cautious in interpreting the correlation between analyst outputs as a measure of bias or quality, and in using a single analyst output as a proxy for an analyst's overall views.     

Geographic distribution of suicide and railway suicide in Belgium, 2008–2013: a principal component analysis

This study investigated the geographic distribution of suicide and railway suicide in Belgium over 2008--2013 on local (i.e., district or arrondissement) level. There were differences in the regional distribution of suicide and railway suicides in Belgium over the study period. Principal component analysis identified three groups of correlations among population variables and socio-economic indicators, such as population density, unemployment, and age group distribution, on two components that helped explaining the variance of railway suicide at a local (arrondissement) level. This information is of particular importance to prevent suicides in high-risk areas on the Belgian railway network.     

Collective self-governance in a marine community: expedition cruise tourism at Svalbard

Collective self-governance is gaining attention in the literature for maintaining the quality of key attractions and promoting sustainable tourism. The long-term success of collective self-governance is dependent on both its internal organization and its embeddedness in external state and non-state regulations. This paper presents the marine community concept, consisting of a policy and a user community, as a framework for investigating the internal and external dynamics of collective self-governance and its ability to steer toward sustainable cruise tourism. As methodology, a case study design was chosen which was primarily studied by means of interviews with a spectrum of relevant actors concerning expedition cruise tourism at Svalbard. By applying the marine community to Svalbard expedition cruise tourism governance, we draw the following conclusions: (1) collective self-governance complements governmental regulation through access to knowledge, conflict resolution and rule-compliance based on disclosure, traceability and trust; (2) collective self-governance's increasing role in the policy community alienates the expedition crew from the user community; and (3) informational overflow by co-existence of collective self-governance and state-governance challenges sustainable cruise tourism. Collective self-governance would, therefore, benefit from reflection, especially regarding the role of the user community that functions as an intermediary between state and self-governance regulations.     

The Distributional and Allocative Impacts of Virtual Labor Mobility across Time Zones through Communication Networks

Using a specific‐factors' model, with two goods (a shift‐working good and a non‐shift‐working good), three factors (capital specific to shift‐working, land specific to non‐shift‐working and labor) and two countries (Home and Foreign), which are located in different time zones, we highlight the impact of trade in labor services via communication networks on factor prices and production patterns. If two countries are identical in size, then under free trade in labor services, all workers work only in their local daytime, and night shift in each country is performed by imported labor services supplied by residents of the other country in their local daytime. Night‐time wage becomes the same as daytime wage (a wage equalization result). Other factor prices are also equalized. In both countries, capital rental rate increases, while land rent decreases. However, if two countries are different in size, trade in labor services does not equalize wages: in the large country, wages for night‐shift workers are higher than daytime wages and some residents work at night; in the small country, daytime wages become higher than night‐time wages and no one works at night, and night‐shift work is done by imported labor services from the large country. Land rent in the small country decreases. Land rent in the large country may or may not decrease, but it is always higher than in the small country. Capital rental rates in both countries are equalized and increase.     

Does context matter for sustainability disclosure? Institutional factors in Southeast Asia

Corporate sustainability is a dynamic, socially constructed concept. Relatedly, to understand the variations in the disclosure of corporate sustainability activities across countries, we need to inherently explore their underlying sociopolitical contexts. At present our understanding in this regard, is deficient. We respond to this extant research gap by adopting a multi‐country approach to investigate the relationship between countries' institutional environments and firms' sustainability disclosure (SD) practices, across six countries in the Southeast Asian region. Our findings reflect a common focus of Southeast Asian firms on community and human resources (HRs) related disclosures. Nevertheless, nuanced differences in their overall SD levels confirm the influence of differing legal, normative, and sociocultural systems in engendering greater disclosure and transparency at a national level. By quantifying the institutional environment and identifying external influencing factors, our study provides a useful framework grounded in neo‐institutional theory to widen the existing understanding of how institutional pressures can be measured and compared across different contexts.     

Toward a Typology of Family Firm Corporate Entrepreneurship

Family involvement in business creates idiosyncrasies in firm behavior that promote long‐term, often transgenerational, strategic logics that ostensibly align with the motivations and outcomes of corporate entrepreneurship. Interestingly, extant research provides only minimal insight into the heterogeneous nature of corporate entrepreneurship orientations pursued by family firms. To better understand this heterogeneity, we develop a typology of corporate entrepreneurship in family firms providing a reconciliatory approach to this literary diversity and suggest that the varied corporate entrepreneurship orientations of family firms are impacted by the duality of a family's distinct intention to pursue transgenerational succession and capabilities to acquire external knowledge.     

Employment Protection and SME Capital Structure Decisions

This study examines the effect of employment protection (EP) on the capital structure of SMEs. We argue that EP is linked to both the level of leverage and leverage adjustments because of its impact on financial distress costs and a firm's operational leverage. Data on employment contract types allow us to compose company specific measures of exposure to EP using a panel data set of 14,858 Belgian SMEs between 2000 and 2012. Our results show that the leverage ratio of firms is higher and that firms are more likely to adjust leverage levels when they are subject to fewer EP obligations.