中国动漫:"病树"前头万木春

中国动漫:越来越热 今年,动漫热在全国各大城市风靡.炎热署假,各大中城市举办的动漫巡展此起彼伏,热潮一浪高过一浪.仅8月北京的动漫嘉年华,就吸引了数万名动画漫画迷.而在全国,热热闹闹的"国际城市动漫展"刚降下帷幕.10月份,"东南亚动漫巡回展"也已敲定在上海举行.而在七八两个月期间,仅在上海就有七个不同的动漫展举行.10月1日到10日期间,广州也有两个动漫展分别在锦汉展览中心和花城展览中心同时举行.     

Elicitation of Expert Opinion in Benefit Transfer of Environmental Goods

Benefit transfer is a method for estimating the value of environmental goods that involves the use of past information on identical or similar goods. This paper considers the extent to which benefit transfer can be based on prior distributions elicited from expert opinion. We propose two alternative methods to elicit the parameters of a prior distribution from experts on environmental valuation. An experiment is carried out on the value of National Parks in Spain. The results from the elicited distributions are compared with the information provided by onsite samples of visitors. The results indicate that individual experts made different predictions about the potential value of the policy areas that were diverse and unable to accurately predict the value for each policy site. However, the average across the elicited distributions approaches the estimated distribution with empirical data and accurately predicts the relative values for the two policy sites considered.     

Cost‐ and Income‐based Measures of Human Capital

Human capital is increasingly believed to play an important role in the growth process, however, adequately measuring its stock remains controversial. In this paper three general approaches to measurement are identified; cost‐based, income‐based and educational stock‐based. This survey focuses on the first two approaches and provides a critical review of the theories and their applications to data from a range of countries. Particular emphasis is placed upon the work of Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1989, 1992) and some new results for New Zealand based upon their approach are also presented.     

Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice

World food prices have experienced dramatic increases in recent years. These “shocks” affect food importers and exporters alike. Vietnam is a major exporter of rice, and rice is also a key item in domestic production, employment, and consumption. Accordingly, rice price shocks from the world market have general equilibrium impacts and as such, their implications for household welfare are not known ex ante. In this article, we present a framework for understanding the direct and indirect welfare effects of a global market shock of this kind. We quantify transmission of the shock from global indicator prices to domestic markets. Then we use an applied general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of the price changes. A recursive mapping to a nationally representative household living standards survey permits us to identify in detail the ceteris paribus effects of the shock on household incomes and welfare. In this analysis, interregional and intersectoral labor market adjustments emerge as key channels transmitting the effects of global price shocks across sectors and among households.     

细微处见态度——谈高校来华留学生管理工作

随着对外开放的逐步深入,外事作为窗口部门的重要性愈加明显。高校接收来华留学生的规模逐年扩大,管理工作的制度化、规范化将有利于外事工作的持续健康发展并直接提升我们的国际形象。     

Improving VWAP strategies: A dynamic volume approach

In this paper, we present a new methodology for modelling intraday volume, which allows for a reduction of the execution risk in VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) orders. The results are obtained for all the stocks included in the CAC40 index at the beginning of September 2004. The idea of considered models is based on the decomposition of traded volume into two parts: one reflects volume changes due to market evolution; the second describes the stock specific volume pattern. The dynamic of the specific volume part is depicted by ARMA and SETAR models. The implementation of VWAP strategies allows some dynamic adjustments during the day in order to improve tracking of the end-of-day VWAP.     

Why firm size matters: investigating the drivers of innovation and economic performance in New Zealand using the Business Operations Survey

The performance of the New Zealand (NZ) economy is something of an enigma. Although ranked one (of 144 countries) for four important ‘growth fundamentals’ NZ is ‘middle of the pack’ when it comes to economic growth, productivity and process innovation. Using four iterations (2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011) of the Business Operations Survey, this research seeks to shed some new light on this conundrum by using a multivariate probit regression (mvprobit) approach applied to pooled samples in excess of 22,000 unit record observations of NZ firms. The results suggest that factors including firm size, high perceived quality, investment/research and development (R&D) capability, major technology change, application of formal IP protection and new export markets are systematically and positively related to innovation; while many external issues, such as those related to geography, market structure, business environment, have little influence. At the firm level, innovations in NZ are highly dependent on the firms’ internal ability to develop new technologies and market demand. The (very small) size of firms does matter in NZ, which lacks a major ‘home market’ or a major trade block on its doorstep, such that ultimately, government may need to be involved to maintain a viable scale for domestic R&D.     

Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users

With Monte Carlo experiments on models in widespread use we examine the performance of indirect inference (II) tests of DSGE models in small samples. We compare these tests with ones based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio, LR). We find that both tests have power so that a substantially false model will tend to be rejected by both; but that the power of the II test is substantially greater, both because the LR is applied after re-estimation of the model error processes and because the II test uses the false model’s own restricted distribution for the auxiliary model’s coefficients. This greater power allows users to focus this test more narrowly on features of interest, trading off power against tractability.