2008:美国经济衰退还是放缓以及全球影响

诸位早上好,我非常高兴能够来参加这个研讨会.首先,我一张幻灯片都没有.刚才我的同事Gail D.Fosler,已经把那些什么指标、数据都给大家讲得很细了,我就没有幻灯片了.     

Incentives,income sharing,and institutional innovation in the yugoslav self-managed firm

The incentive properties of income-sharing arrangements are analyzed for situations in which workers are allowed to form group or coalition decisions on effort. Both the feasibility and enforceability of such decisions are shown to depend on a variety of organizational characteristics, including the degree of worker participation and the size and divisionalization of the firm. Finally, the recent decentralization of Yugoslav firms is shown to enhance the incentive effects of income sharing.     

Cognitive constraints, contraction consistency, and the satisficing criterion

A theory of decision making is proposed that offers an axiomatic basis for the notion of “satisficing” postulated by Herbert Simon. The theory relaxes the standard assumption that the decision maker always fully perceives his preferences among the available alternatives, requiring instead that his ability to perceive any given preference be decreasing with respect to the complexity of the choice problem at hand. When complexity is aligned with set inclusion, this exercise is shown to be equivalent to abandoning the contraction consistency axiom of classical choice theory.     

Promoting entrepreneurship in Eastern Europe

The past decade has seen a revival of entrepreneurship in the modern industrial economies, characterized by a wave of enterprise restructuring and of new developments in business and technology. In this paper, we argue that market transitions of the post-socialist economies of Eastern Europe cannot be successful without similar entrepreneurial restructuring. To address the massive structural distortions that still plague the post-reform economies, the governments of the region must promote entrepreneurship through policies that: (1) make use of all possible sources of entrepreneurship, including in particular the former state and social sectors; and (2) establish a macroeconomic environment and property-rights framework conducive to entrepreneurship. A successful promotion strategy will need to operate on several fronts, by: (1) redirecting entrepreneurial activities into legal, productive activities, (2) increasing the supply and effectiveness of entrepreneurs, (3) developing markets for complementary inputs, and (4) increasing the demand for entrepreneurship. An unsuccessful approach, we argue, will be one that regards the pre-reform small private sector as the only source of entrepreneurship, and as the only arena for its productive use.Chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers Professor of Economics and Business Administration University of California at Berkeley (on leave)Visiting Professor University of California at Berkeley Professor of Economics and Entrepreneurship Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana (on leave) Advisor to the Government of Slovenia on real sector restructuring, 1992–93     

The Yugoslav inflation: Some competing hypotheses

Various hypotheses about wage and price inflation in Yugoslavia are presented and tested empirically with quarterly data from the 1962–1972 period. Both theoretical literature and empirical evidence on the behavior of the self-managed firm are used to derive different models of wage determination. The wage-equation results indicate that labor-market conditions, inflationary expectations; and labor-productivity variables are significant determinants of the rate of growth of wages. The price equations, based on a modified cost-markup model consistent with the practices of Yugoslav firms, identify labor costs and aggregate demand as significant determinants of the rate of growth of prices. University of California, Berkeley.     

Financial systems in financial crisis — An analysis of banking systems in the EU

This Forum aims to systematically describe and analyse the evolution of national financial systems within the EU over the past three decades. It analyses the processes of financialisation that have dominated this period as well as the causes and consequences of the financial crisis from the perspectives of five individual member states — Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain. Furthermore, policy proposals which could change the role of the financial system to better serve economic and social objectives are also put forward.