A solution to log of dependent variables with negative observations

Journal of Productivity Analysis - Negative observations pose a problem in econometric models that apply log-transformation to the data. We propose a simple yet effective solution to this problem...     

Do Monetary Unions Make Economic Sense? Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union, 1873–1913

Popular propositions as to what constitutes a successful single currency area are examined by looking at the Scandinavian Currency Union (1873–1913) formed by Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Applying a frequently used indicator of the desirability of monetary union, we study the symmetry of country-specific structural shocks (measured net of the non-Scandinavian influence) in these three countries. It is found that country-specific shocks are not highly symmetric. This conclusion is also supported by the absence of clear-cut differences between the pattern of structural shocks in Belgium and structural shocks in the Scandinavian countries. This suggests that the three Scandinavian countries did not form an optimum currency area during the period 1873–1913.
JEL classification : F 15; F 33; N 13     

Technik für ein langes Leben

Megatrend Ambient Assisted Living - Im Jahr 2035 wird in Deutschland jeder dritte Mensch ?lter sein als 60 Jahre. Die Nachfrage nach Dienstleistungen und unterstützenden Systemen wird steigen. Technische Assistenzsysteme für Pflegende, Pflegebedürftige und deren Angeh?rige sollen das Leben im Alter sicherer und bequemer machen.     

The perception of fire risk by older people and its impact on relevant fire safety education

Accidents due to ‘fire and flames’ are second only to “falls” as the most important cause of accidental death in the homes of elderly individuals throughout the United Kingdom. This study aims to ascertain whether older people are receiving fire accident advice appropriate to their needs. A questionnaire addressing the issues of risk perception, fire preventative action and access to fire safety information was distributed to 1100 randomly selected members of the ‘Thousand Elders’ (a nation-wide consumer group established by the Centre for Applied Gerontology at The University of Birmingham, comprising people above the age of 50 years). Eight hundred and four questionnaires were returned and were analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Fire risk was perceived as far less of an immediate threat than the danger of a personal attack by an intruder in the home. Recognition of fire risk and the effectiveness of fire safety measures did not result directly in safety appliances being fitted. The majority of ‘Elders’ had received no fire-fighting training, yet more than half felt confident in tackling a small fire. Neither did experience of a fire in the home necessarily increase action towards safety precautions. The majority had not been exposed to a fire safety campaign in the past 12 months. On exposure to a campaign, the impact towards fire safety was positive. The educational process should aim to close the gap between the recognition of the need for fire safety precautions and the implementation of fire safety measures. The key to effective fire prevention amongst older people depends upon: Information, Training and Support, i.e., relevant information supported by practical help and subsequent practical training in-situ by trusted community figures.     

Economic Growth and Development: Towards a Catchup Model

We develop a model for economic growth applicable to a group of countries, constituting around half of the gross global production, that have been consistently “catching up” to the US since 1960 or so. This group can be termed “the convergence club.” The model has a theoretical basis developed in other publications (cited), but the present work is essentially empirical. It demonstrates that there is a very strong correlation between “catchup” growth, with respect to the US, and an energy proxy (EP). The energy proxy that works best is a linear combination of domestic electric power consumption petroleum (oil) consumption, per capita, compared to the US levels. The results presented here do not constitute a theory of growth, but they are consistent with theory presented elsewhere. On a practical level, we argue that consistent “catchup” trends over the past 40 years can safely be extrapolated for a few more decades for scenario construction purposes. We also believe that the observed catchup trends can be regarded as “potential” mid-term or long-term growth trajectories for transition economies and others that have recently been adversely affected by conflict or mismanagement.     

Ein optisches Analogiegerät für den tetrachorischen Korrelationskoeffizienten

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Steady state and portfolio concept in R & D management

This paper describes a new approach for closing the gap between the tools for strategic goal management and operational management in Pharmaceutical R&D. The strategic level may concern with expectation of sales, rising from new products and with total R & D budget. The operational level concerns with project selection, project and multiproject management problems, solution of project related technical problems, determination of the size of the various functions and the functional management. This new method combines the R & D project portfolio management with a steady state concept allowing the attainment of a constant number of projects under development and a continuous full use of the capacity available.