Firms as Realizations of Entrepreneurial Visions

abstract    In the debate on why firms exist, the question of who chooses between firms and markets and on what basis is rarely addressed. This paper argues that the choice is a core element of the entrepreneurial pursuit of visions or conceptions of business opportunities. To successfully organize resources into the envisioned businesses – be it via firms or markets – resource owners must be coordinated on the entrepreneur's conception of the business and be motivated to perform properly. To solve the dual problem, the organizational form of the firm offers the entrepreneur unique advantages not feasible under the organizational form of markets.     

Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions

This paper considers the problem of constructing confidence sets for the date of a single break in a linear time series regression. We establish analytically and by small sample simulation that the current standard method in econometrics for constructing such confidence intervals has a coverage rate far below nominal levels when breaks are of moderate magnitude. Given that breaks of moderate magnitude are a theoretically and empirically relevant phenomenon, we proceed to develop an appropriate alternative. We suggest constructing confidence sets by inverting a sequence of tests. Each of the tests maintains a specific break date under the null hypothesis, and rejects when a break occurs elsewhere. By inverting a certain variant of a locally best invariant test, we ensure that the asymptotic critical value does not depend on the maintained break date. A valid confidence set can hence be obtained by assessing which of the sequence of test statistics exceeds a single number.     

Vom Beruf unserer Zeit zur nationalen Gesetzgebung

There is a broad consensus with regard to the necessity of reforming the german insurance contract law. Considerations about the necessary changes should include the globalisation of markets in a unified Europe, as well as methodical and other developments of the law in the recent past. Until recently, the international transfer of services was discussed rather theoretically and had less practical relevance. This has changed since the use of the internet has increased dramatically. Therefore, an explicit regulation in the law with regard to the applicable law and jurisdiction for insurance contracts with an international context is required.Alongside these changes, a reform of the insurance contract law code will have to include the development of the jurisdiction of German courts especially with regard to consumer protection clauses. The extent of this reform depends on the interpretation of the concept of a ?mature and responsible consumer“. Regarding jumbo risks, the question remains whether complete contractual autonomy should apply. With respect to the control of general terms and conditions by the courts, a more detailed regulation of dispositive clauses in the insurance contract law might be considered which one could revest to on in case of nullity of such conditions.There are many specific regulations that are susceptible to changes and amelioration. Every change needs to find a balance between the need to guarantee the autonomy of the contracting parties and the protection of the consumers / insured. For instance, a general right of the insured to withdraw from a contractual obligation would be inconsistent with essential principles of contract law.Lastly, certain branches of the insurance industry, which are not specifically addressed in the law, such as professional incapacity insurance, should be regulated in the future.     

发现当代艺术?(下)——上海当代艺术博览会讲座系列

此次专题承接第10期上海当代艺术博览会讲座系列,继续发表来自古奥德莫克·美迪那,玛莎·罗斯勒,卢迎华,彦·沃尔沃特以及汉斯·乌尔里希·奥布里斯特四位批评家的文章。四篇文章分别从不同的侧面继续了关于当代性的讨论。古奥德莫克·美迪那以论纲的形式,从不同方面列举了当代艺术发展中的十一个特性;玛莎·罗斯勒以美国当代艺术发展的状况为例,探讨了当代艺术何以仍然具有政治批判性及社会批判性;而卢迎华则从回顾关于中国当代艺术本土化的讨论出发,特别引用了栗宪庭与费大为的通信,表达了对于中国当代艺术在未来的发展中必须确立自身原则,积极主动的诉求;彦·沃尔沃特则以某种类似自白的方式,略带意识流的手法表达了自己关于当代的惶然与期待;汉斯·奥布里斯特用独特的碎片形式,向我们展示了他近期关于创新及双/三年展的思考。     

THE ESTIMATION OF POVERTY DYNAMICS USING DIFFERENT MEASUREMENTS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME

If surveys offer two different measurements of household income, one can use them simultaneously to identify the potential effects of measurement error on the observed-income mobility of the poor. In this paper we investigate transition tables between subsequent income states. Latent Markov models are used to model incorrect classifications of income states. Misclassifications are interpreted as measurement error or spurious changes that are not consistent with a simple transition table model. The empirical results for the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) show that the observed transition tables overestimate the mobility between poverty states.     

Versicherungsnachfrage und Ausfallerwartung

Recently, several undesirable feature of classical risk measure like variance or value-at-risk have been mentioned in the literature. Due to this drawbacks, alternative risk measures as the lower partial moments receive increasing attention. The present paper analyzes the lower partial moments with respect to their compatibility to expected utility theory as well as their psychological plausibility. With respect to the latter point, shortfall expectation seems to be more realistic than the other lower partial moments. We proceed by analyzing demand for coinsurance in the context of risk measurement by shortfall expectation.