中国的男性人口过剩--规模、结构、影响因素及其发展趋势分析

对中国男性人口过剩的规模、结构、影响因素及其发展趋势进行了标准化分析.研究表明:1982与1990年男性人口过剩规模与比例已处较高水平.更为严重的是在未来几十年时间内中国男性人口过剩问题将日渐严重,性别结构因素的影响将逐渐增强,并最终成为男性人口过剩的首要影响因素,年龄结构与人口规律因素的影响将逐年减弱.婚姻市场也因此将受到前所未有的冲击.     

A simple model of cumulative prospect theory

The present paper combines loss attitudes and linear utility by providing an axiomatic analysis of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) in the framework for decision under uncertainty. We derive a two-sided variant of Choquet expected utility (CEU) with possibly different capacities for gains and for losses, and linear utility. Naturally, utility may have a kink at the status quo, which allows for the exhibition of loss aversion. The central condition of our model is termed independence of common increments.     

Dynamic stochastic games with random moves

We reformulate the quality ladder model of Pakes and McGuire, Rand Journal of Economics, 25(4), 555–589 (1994) as a dynamic stochastic game with random moves in which each period one firm is picked at random to make an investment decision. Contrasting this model to the standard version with simultaneous moves illustrates the computational advantages of random moves. In particular, the quality ladder model with random moves avoids the curse of dimensionality in computing firms’ expectations over all possible future states and is therefore orders of magnitude faster to solve than its counterpart with simultaneous moves when there are more than just a few firms. Perhaps unexpectedly, the equilibria of the quality ladder model with random moves are practically indistinguishable from those of the model with simultaneous moves.