Die theorie der effektiven protektion

Summary The Theory of Effective Protection. — This paper offers a comprehensive presentation of the actual position of the theory of effective protection. It is shown that the concept of measurement suggested in connection with this theory rests upon a partial view and that the height and meaning of effective protection rates may change when a conception of general equilibrium is introduced. Further, widenings of the concept are discussed and suggestions made as to how indirect taxes and non-marketable inputs can be taken into consideration. Problems of imperfect competition, especially of the differentiation of products, and of the existence of redundant or prohibitive protection measures are also treated. Finally, a comprehensive analysis of the indicativeness of effective protection rates is given. In the case of constant input coefficients, it is possible, with the aid of protection rates and within the limits generally observed in price theory, to explain changes in the structure of gross production. In the case of variable input coefficients, the same is possible if the substitution effects can be integrated into the measuring concept. This would seem to be an empirical rather than a theoretical problem. Effective protection rates cannot — as has been suggested — serve to measure comparative cost advantages. At most, they indicate differences in cost caused by the protective system. For purposes of ascertaining the discrimination of foreign industries, calculation of the effective protection rate should start from nominal, not from realized customs. Applied to individual investment projects, the effective protection rate is able to help in estimating their value from the point of view of national economy.

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Resumen La teoria de protección efectiva. — El présente artículo ofrece una revista general del estado actual de la teorfa de la tasa efectiva de protección. En primer lugar se demuestra que el concepto propuesto se basa en un enfoque partial, de manera que el nivel y el significado de las tasas efectivas de protección pueden ser otros si se analizan dentro de un marco de equilibrio general. A continuación los autores discuten ampliaciones del concepto básico y hacen propuestas para la consideración de impuestos indirectes y de inputs no comercializables internacionalmente. Además, estudian los problemas que resultan de una competencia imperfecta (particularmente en relación con la diferenciación entre productos) así como de la existencia de medidas de protección redundantes y prohibitivas. Finalmente, se analiza el significativo de las tasas efectivas de protección. Los autores mantienen que, bajo el supuesto de que los coeficientes de inputs sean constantes, las tasas efectivas permiten (con las limitaciones usuales en la teoria de precios) conclusiones sobre variaciones en la estructura de la producción bruta. Esto es posible también si los coeficientes de inputs se consideran variables, siempre y cuando que se introduzcan los efectos de sustitución en el concepto de medición, lo cual, más que un problema teorico, es un problema estadístico. Al contrario de lo que a menudo se afirma, las tasas efectivas de protección no sirven para determinar los costos comparativos de un pais; en el mejor de los casos se prestan a la evaluación de las diferencias en los costos comparativos provocados por el sistema de protección. Si se desea conocer el grado de discriminación de industrias extranjeras, la medición de las tasas efectivas de protección deberá partir de los aranceles nominales y no de los aranceles realmente utilizados. Con relación a proyectos de inversión singulares, las tasas efectivas de protección ofrecen una ayuda de decisión en el momento de evaluar dentro de un marco macroeconómico la importancia de aquellos proyectos.

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Résumé La théorie de protection efficace. — Cet article présente une étude complète de la position actuelle de la théorie de protección efficace. On y prouve que le concept de mesurage proposé dans cette théorie repose sur une vue partielle et que le montant et la signification des taux de protección efficace peuvent changer quand on envisage l’équilibre général. Ensuite, on examine l’élargissement du concept de mesurage, tout en proposant des manières de tenir compte des imp?ts indirects et des inputs non-vendables. Sont discutés aussi les problèmes de la concurrence imparfaite, spécialement ceux de la différentiation des produits, et de l’existence de mesures de protección redondantes ou prohibitives. Finalement, on fait l’analyse générale du pouvoir indicatif des taux de protección efficace. Quand les coefficients de l’input sont constants, on peut, à l’aide des taux de protección — dans les limites généralement observées dans la théorie des prix — expliquer les changements de structure de la production brute. Quand les coefficients de l’input sont variables, la même chose est possible, si l’on peut intégrer les effects de substitution dans le concept de mesurage. Ce qui parait être un problème empirique plut?t qu’un problème théorique. Les taux de protección efficace ne peuvent pas — comme on l’a prétendu — servir pour mesurer les avantages comparatifs du co?t. Tout au plus, ils indiquent les différences de co?t causées par le système de protección. Si l’on veut conna?tre la discrimination des industries étrangères, il faut que le calcul des taux de protección efficace parte des tarifs douaniers nominaux et non pas des tarifs réalisés. Appliqué à des projets individuels d’investissement, le taux de protection efficace peut aider à juger de la valeur de ces projets pour l’économie nationale.

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Riassunto La teoria della protezione efiettiva. — Questo articolo d à una vasta esposizione dell’odierna situazione della teoria della protezione effettiva. Viene mostrato che nel quadro di questa teoria l’abbozzo di misurazione proposto poggia su una considerazione parziale e che altezza e capacit à assertiva delle rate efiettive di protezione possono mutare in una considerazione generale d’equilibrio. Quindi sono discussi ampliamenti dell’abbozzo e fatte proposte per la considerazione di imposte indirette come anche di ?input? non commerciabili. Inoltre viene abbordato il problema della concorrenza imperfetta, in particolare della differenziazione della produzione, come anche dell’esistenza di provvedimenti ridondanti e proibitivi di protezione. Una vasta analisi della capacità assertiva di rate efifettive di protezione costituisce la conclusione. In coefficienti fissi di ?input?, con l’aiuto delle rate di protezione e con le limitazioni comunemente in uso nella teoria dei prezzi, sono possibili asserzioni sul mutamento della struttura produttiva lorda. In coefficienti variabili di ?input? sono possibili le stesse asserzioni se gli effetti di sostituzione possono essere integrati nell’abbozzo di misurazione. Questo dovrebbe essere piú un problema empirico che teorico. Rate effettive di protezione (REP) non possono servire — corne ripetutamente si sostiene — da criterio di vantaggi comparativi dei costi, ma indicare nel migliore dei casi, per mezzo del sistema di protezione, causate differenze comparative dei prezzi. Per l’accertamento della discriminazione di industrie straniere, nel calcolo delle REP, bisogna partire dai dazi nominali e non da quelli utilizzati. Riferite a singoli progetti, le REP sono adatte ad essere di aiuto decisivo per la valutazione economica generale di progetti d’investizione.

     

A Continental Barley Market: Where Are the Gains?

Under a continental barley marketing system, the Canadian Wheat Board would no longer be the only exporter of barley to the United States. Even though the volume of malting barley exports to the United States would increase, the historic price premium in both Canada and the United States would drop sufficiently to lower total revenue to malting barley producers. The United States' Export Enhancement Program allows the Canadian Wheat Board to sell feed barley at premium prices in some markets, including the United States. Under some conditions the continental barley market would adversely affect optimal trade flows and reduce revenue for feed barley producers. The potential to offset these losses in revenue by reducing grain-handling charges or by growing higher-yielding feed varieties appears to be very limited. Dans un système de marché continental de l'brge, la Commission canadienne du blé ne serait plus le seul exportateur d'orge vers les Etats-Unis. Même si Ie volume des exportations d'orge de malterie augmentait, la prime dont a longtemps bénéficié cette catégorie d'orge, tant au Canada qu'aux Etats-Unis, tomberait suffisamment pour abaisser les recettes totales des producteurs. Par ailleurs, le Programme américain de stimulation des exportations (EEP) autorise actuellement la CCB à vendre son orge fourragère à prime sur certains marchés, dont les Etats-his. Dans certaines circonstances, le marché continental de l'orge aurait un effet négatif sur les courants d'échange et réduirait les recettes des producteurs de ce type d'orge. Les possibilités de compenser ces pertes de revenu parune compression des frais de manutention et de stockage ou par la mise en service de variétés fourragères à rendement plus élevé paraissent très restreintes.     

Contracting inside an organization: An experimental study

In this paper we propose and test a contracting mechanism, Multi-Contract Cost Sharing (MCCS), for use in the management of a sequence of projects. The mechanism is intended for situations where (1) the contractor knows more about the true costs of various projects than does the contracting agency (adverse selection), and (2) unobservable effort on the part of the contractor may lead to cost reductions (moral hazard). The proposed process is evaluated in an experimental environment that includes the essential economic features of the NASA process for the acquisition of Space Science Strategy missions. The environment is complex and the optimal mechanism is unknown. The design of the MCCS mechanism is based on the optimal contract for a simpler related environment. We compare the performance of the proposed process to theoretical benchmarks and to an implementation of the current NASA ‘cost cap’ procurement process. The data indicate that the proposed MCCS process generates significantly higher value per dollar spent than using cost caps, because it allocates resources more efficiently among projects and provides greater incentives to engage in cost-reducing innovations. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C72, C92, D82, L32     

Second order approximations for limit order books

In this paper, we derive a second order approximation for an infinite-dimensional limit order book model, in which the dynamics of the incoming order flow is allowed to depend on the current market price as well as on a volume indicator (e.g. the volume standing at the top of the book). We study the fluctuations of the price and volume process relative to their first order approximation given in ODE–PDE form under two different scaling regimes. In the first case, we suppose that price changes are really rare, yielding a constant first order approximation for the price. This leads to a measure-valued SDE driven by an infinite-dimensional Brownian motion in the second order approximation of the volume process. In the second case, we use a slower rescaling rate, which leads to a non-degenerate first order approximation and gives a PDE with random coefficients in the second order approximation for the volume process. Our results can be used to derive confidence intervals for models of optimal portfolio liquidation under market impact.