The Loss of Raw Material Criticality: Implications of the Collapse of Saudi Arabian Oil Exports

Intereconomics - Raw material criticality has played an important role in geostrategic thinking, especially since the crisis surrounding the price and supply of rare earths at the beginning of the...     

Beyond Balassa and Samuelson: real convergence,capital flows,and competitiveness in Greece

To better understand the convergence process prior and since the European financial and debt crisis, we scrutinize the role of capital flows for competitiveness in Greece and a set of six other euro area member countries (Portugal, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic). For this purpose the paper extends the seminal Balassa–Samuelson model by international capital markets with a particular focus on their impact on national wage policies. Capital flows are assumed to be able to invert the traditional direction of transmission of real wage increases from the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector and to make real wages increase beyond productivity increases. The augmented Balassa–Samuelson model is extended to trace cyclical deviations of real exchange rates from the productivity-driven equilibrium path. Panel estimations for the period from 1995 to 2013 reveal correlations in line with the Balassa–Samuelson effect, if Greece is excluded from the panel. For Greece, this in turn implies indication in favour of a credit-driven real wage increases beyond productivity increases what we call a “pseudo” Balassa–Samuelson effect.     

COVID-19, asset markets and capital flows

This paper empirically examines the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID-19 outbreak, with special focus on the dynamics of capital flows across 14 emerging market economies. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to COVID-19 is also tested. Using daily data over the period January 4, 2010 to August 31, 2020, and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impacts on stock, bond and exchange rates due to COVID-19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus packages mainly helped to boost stock prices, notably for advanced and emerging economies in Asia. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world's leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID-19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries extended to EMEs, with significant positive spillovers to EME stock markets in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Going forward, while the ultimate resolution of COVID-19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be persistent effects on bond markets in emerging Europe and on EME capital flows.     

Supplier Portfolio Management for IT Services Considering Diversification Effects

By means of service-oriented architectures the IT support of processes can be designed as a portfolio of individual IT services provided by different suppliers. The processes are designed based on selection decisions between IT services that potentially have to be included. Many companies formulate a multitude of requirements for investments in IT services at ever shorter intervals. However, the scope of the desired investments usually exceeds the available budget. Thus, companies face the challenge of allocating the limited budget to investments in the most promising combination of IT services. This is hardly possible without methodical support. In addition, the allocation is often done intuitively and subject to the decision-makers’ affinity with IT. Therefore, this paper develops a quantitative, multi-period procedure model for the purpose of maximizing the enterprise value in accordance with value based management, which considers the dependencies of the periodical selection decisions. In the following, a decision logic for the heuristic solution to the selection problem is presented and its application is demonstrated by means of an illustrative case example.     

Measuring prior sensitivity and prior informativeness in large Bayesian models

In large Bayesian models, such as modern DSGE models, it is difficult to assess how much the prior affects the results. This paper derives measures of prior sensitivity and prior informativeness that account for the high dimensional interaction between prior and likelihood information. The basis for both measures is the derivative matrix of the posterior mean with respect to the prior mean, which is easily obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo output. We illustrate the approach by examining posterior results in the small model of Lubik and Schorfheide (2004) and the large model of Smets and Wouters (2007).     

Hysteresis in CEMAC Informal Employment

Journal of Quantitative Economics - In this empirical study we investigate the hysteresis in informal employment rate for six central African countries for the period 1981–2012. We use a more...     

The reverse Napoleon effect: The brand appreciation of looking up by tall people

Integrating the embodied cognition framework with research on the self, this study shows that head canting (the vertical tilt of the head to look up vs. down) interacts with a viewer's physical height to influence perceived brand power and behavioral intentions. Three studies use a variety of brand cues in both laboratory and field contexts to test the effect of head canting on brand power evaluations, the role of a person's physical height as a moderator and boundary condition, and the mediating role of consumer–brand identification. Study 1, an experiment, showed that tall, but not short individuals, evaluate a brand as more powerful when looking up (rather than down) at a brand story from a standing position, with differences in brand power impacting brand attitudes and choice. Study 2 replicates these findings with 30 brands, consumers positioned in a seated position, and brand logos. Both studies rule out the construal level as a process mediator. Study 3 further examines the process and demonstrates that the interaction of head canting with a person's height impacts consumer–brand identification, which mediates brand evaluations. These findings add a brand management and physical-self perspective to previous embodiment research by specifically examining the effects of sensorimotor experiences.     

Schwaches Produktivitätswachstum — zyklisches oder strukturelles Phänomen?

Labour productivity growth in Germany and in the OECD countries has decelerated significantly in recent years. This observation is astonishing, given the fact that modern digital services can now be found throughout the economy. It may be a statistical artefact, but if it is a realistic observation, it should be investigated. The authors describe many reasons for this development. For example, the services sector, with its traditionally low productivity, makes up an increasingly large part of the economy. Moreover, the cost intensity of innovations is growing, and there are not enough innovative investments. What should be done? Reforms are suggested which aim at exploiting unused potential and create suitable conditions for facilitating sustainable productivity increases. Important policy areas include digitisation, energy transition and demographic change. But reforms must also be thought of as investments into the capacity of employees to work productively.