The Fuzzy Front‐End of Discontinuous Innovation: Insights for Research and Management

In an article by Reid and de Brentani, a theoretical model of the process and structure for the fuzzy front‐end (FFE) of new product development (NPD) for discontinuous innovations was proposed. Its basic premise is that information flow in the early development of such innovations moves from the environment into the firm, facilitated by individuals playing three key roles at three decision‐making interfaces: (1) the boundary spanner at the boundary interface, (2) the gatekeeper at the gatekeeping interface, and (3) what is identified in this paper as the “project broker” at the project interface. The current paper builds on and augments the ideas presented in this theoretical model with the primary objective of formulating a set of propositions detailing factors affecting the flow of information, and thus role effectiveness at each of these interfaces for discontinuous innovations. The focus is on radically new innovations both because this type of innovation has the highest level of uncertainty during the FFE and because the development of products resulting from such innovations entails the greatest lack of understanding and the fewest strategies for effective management. To achieve this objective, individual, social system, and environmental factors, which promote and/or inhibit the effectiveness of the roles played during the three FFE phases, are examined in terms of both the speed and the quality of information flow. This is done with the goal of substantially improving NPD information as it proceeds through the FFE. In turn, it can help researchers, managers, and team players to better anticipate and meet the navigational challenges of this intrinsically complex, risky, but high potential, NPD scenario.     

What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.     

Estimation and testing of crossing‐points in fixed design regression

Many phenomena in the life sciences can be analyzed by using a fixed design regression model with a regression function m that exhibits a crossing‐point in the following sense: the regression function runs below or above its mean level, respectively, according as the input variable lies to the left or to the right of that crossing‐point, or vice versa. We propose a non‐parametric estimator and show weak and strong consistency as long as the crossing‐point is unique. It is defined as maximizing point arg max of a certain marked empirical process. For testing the hypothesis H₀ that the regression function m actually is constant (no crossing‐point), a decision rule is designed for the specific alternative H₁ that m possesses a crossing‐point. The pertaining test‐statistic is the ratio max/argmax of the maximum value and the maximizing point of the marked empirical process. Under the hypothesis the ratio converges in distribution to the corresponding ratio of a reflected Brownian bridge, for which we derive the distribution function. The test is consistent on the whole alternative and superior to the corresponding Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, which is based only on the maximal value max. Some practical examples of possible applications are given where a certain study about dental phobia is discussed in more detail.     

Modelling nature-based tourism impacts on rural development and conservation in Sikunga Conservancy,Namibia

Community-based natural resource management and nature-based tourism often go hand in hand to drive conservation and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the complementarity of the two strategies is controversially discussed in the literature. Built on survey data from 200 households conducted in 2012 we analysed the trade-off between conservation and development objectives by means of a mathematical programming model representing the economy of a rural conservancy in Namibia. We found that in the scenario describing unrestricted resource extraction, local communities mainly benefit from fishing and utilising forest products. In comparison, the scenario representing the social optimum, implying sustainably managed fish stocks and appropriate diets for community inhabitants, shows that community households increase agricultural diversification and shift livelihoods towards tourism employment.     

Establishment modes and network relationships of foreign subsidiaries

This research examines the effects of the establishment mode of foreign subsidiaries (greenfield vs acquisition) on the type of network relationships (social vs business) they develop in local markets. The authors use the network approach to better understand the role played by local subsidiaries for the development of networks in multinational enterprises. The empirical study is based on a dataset covering 120 foreign-owned subsidiaries in Italy. The findings show that acquired subsidiaries are more directly involved in business relationships, whereas greenfield subsidiaries pay more attention to social relationships before building business networks. The establishment mode thus affects the type of network relationships developed by local subsidiaries, which can help them to overcome the liabilities of foreignness and outsidership.     

What Happened to the Japanese Model?

Japan's steep postwar growth was nested in a political economy built around producer‐oriented policies: by fostering the growth of large firms using the tools of industrial policy, the government could jumpstart development. Many large firms, and their employees, benefited indirectly from this growth program, and very small firms and industries not included in the growth model were compensated through preferential policies or subsidies. Japan's social contract evolved around this system, having as its centerpiece lifetime employment. The government spent more resources on supporting exporting industries and compensating domestic ones than on building a forward‐looking welfare system. Japan's decade‐long economic downturn marks a structural transition towards a postindustrial society. While excelling in producing tangibles, Japan has fallen behind in fostering modern industries, including services; the country also lacks a welfare system to handle increasing structural unemployment that this transition brings about. Without a commitment towards a welfare system and a welfare society, and a reorientation of the social contract towards citizens, Japan is unlikely to transition successfully.     

Modeling Expectation Formation Involving Several Sources of Information

Abstract. Experimental studies of expectation formation of subjects are predominantly limited to the prediction of one single time series despite the practical relevance of expectations in situations with multiple sources of information. In this paper, we report on an experiment in which subjects are given time series (indicators) as additional information for the judgemental forecast of a stationary time series. The quality and the number of these indicators are varied in three versions of a forecasting experiment. We explore the effects on forecasting accuracy and we test the average forecasts of the subjects for consistency with the rational expectations hypothesis. A simple heuristic is presented that explains the average forecasting behavior better than the rational expectations if indicators are presented to the subjects. It is demonstrated by a simulation study that this result is representative for the considered stationary stochastic processes.     

What do tourism students know about sustainability and sustainable tourism? An exploratory study of Latin American students

While research has started to pay attention to the content and delivery of sustainable tourism education, little is known about what students actually know and feel with respect to sustainability. This preliminary study explores students’ knowledge of and attitudes toward sustainable tourism as well as their sense of competence and empowerment to make sustainability-related decisions. The focus was on Latin America, where tourism has caused severe negative impacts and where sustainability knowledge and skills are most needed to protect fragile natural and cultural resources. Results show that although most tourism students think sustainable tourism is important, they have limited knowledge of sustainability principles and technical aspects related to sustainable tourism. Implications for teaching are discussed.