ReGale: Some memorable results

This article reviews, with admiration and awe, the scientific contributions of David Gale.     

Rank-dependent preferences without ranking axioms

A key feature of the rank-dependent model for decision making under risk is that the weighting of an outcome depends on its relative rank. This theory received numerous axiomatizations, however, all these sets of axioms need to make an explicit reference to the ranking of the outcomes. This situation is unsatisfactory, as it seems to be desirable to get the ranking property of this model as a consequence of the model, rather than as an assumption. [Yaari, M.E., 1987. The dual theory of choice under risk. Econometrica 55, 95–115] offered a special version of this model (called dual theory), where the utility function is linear. This paper offers a set of axioms implying Yaari’s dual theory without making any reference to the order of the outcomes. The main axiom is called semi betweenness, which, unlike the usual case, is made on random variables rather than on distribution functions.     

INTERNATIONAL TRANSFER OF PRICING INFORMATION BETWEEN DUALLY LISTED STOCKS

International multiple listing offers a unique opportunity to study the efficiency of information transmission across national markets. The knowledge gained from observing a stock of the same company priced in multiple markets differs from what may be gained from observing relations across markets of aggregate price indices. We investigate five companies based in Israel whose stocks are listed on both the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. Our empirical tests of causality in price changes use the side-by-side Box-Jenkins ARIMA models and the Sims VAR model. Overall, the results show that price causality in dually listed stocks is unidirectional from the domestic market to the foreign market.     

Does Balance Among Areas of Institutional Quality Matter for Economic Growth?

Countries with better institutions, as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World index, have greater prosperity, growth, and well-being. However, the previous literature has ignored interrelationships among the subareas, instead implicitly assuming substitutability and independence. We hypothesize that when some areas are weak, better scores in other areas are not a simple substitute. We find that including a simple measure of the within-country standard deviation among coexisting area scores results in a meaningfully significant improvement in the empirical growth specifications. Based on our findings, this should become routine practice in future empirical work. We also explore interactions among areas and find ones with legal system and property rights most important to include. These findings suggest a need to reconsider the implicit assumption of independence among area scores, as well as a balanced approach to institutional reform in practice. Improving the worst areas is more beneficial to growth.     

The use of knowledge in technology entrepreneurship: A theoretical foundation

While technology entrepreneurship has been widely recognized as a driver of economic growth, there exists little in the way of a unified framework for understanding technology entrepreneurship and assessing its value proposition, particularly when network externalities and information are involved. In this paper we bring together several strands of literature and identify the components that form a foundation for understanding modern technology entrepreneurship. In particular, technology functions as a capital good that embodies knowledge about performing productive tasks, and the value of this knowledge depends on how well it is able to utilize decentralized local knowledge and spontaneous orders.     

Trading frequency and the efficiency of price discovery in a non-dealer market

The increasing popularity of non-dealer security markets that offer automated, computer-based, continuous trading reflects a presumption that institutionally-set trading sessions are economically obsolete. This theoretical paper investigates the effect of the trading frequency, a key feature of the trading mechanism, on the efficiency of price discovery in a non-dealer market. By tracing the market pricing error to the correlation structures of arriving information and pricing errors of individual traders, the effect of diverging expectations on error-based and overall return volatility is isolated. The analysis reveals that, due to a portfolio effect, an increase in the trading time interval has contradictory effects on the portion of return volatility stemming from pricing errors. The greater accumulation of information increases error-based return volatility, but the greater volume and number of traders per session have the opposite effect. The net effect on overall return volatility can go either way. It is found that the return volatility of heavily traded securities is likely to be minimized under continuous trading, but that of thinly traded securities may be minimized under discrete trading at moderate time intervals. The latter is more likely to occur the greater is the divergence of expectations among traders. These findings challenge the presumption that automated continuous trading in a non-dealer market is more efficient than discrete trading for all securities, regardless of trading volume. The findings are applicable to all economies, but have special importance for developing countries where typically a single market is dominated by small issues and a low volume of trade. As a by-product of the analysis, it is shown how to correct the biased estimate of inter-session price volatility when observations are less frequent than the trading sessions themselves.     

An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting

Market efficiency dictates it equally profitable to bet on any racing participant, including the favourite or longshot. However, a well-documented anomaly is that racetrack bettors tend to overbet longshots and underbet favourites. This study presents and tests two theoretical explanations for this favourite-longshot bias. The unparalleled richness of the data allows the exploration of how the bias changes with several key variables. This study finds the most popular current explanation for the bias, the risk preference model, cannot explain the data as well as an information-based model, in which the bias depends on bet complexity and the information possessed by bettors.