RECENT EVIDENCE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF AIR POLLUTION EFFECTS

This study associates levels of exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter in the South Coast Air Basin of California with resident income, race, age and education. A Regional Human Exposure Model provides the basis for estimating exposure not only on location or residence, but also on mobility within the Basin and time spent in various activities indoors and outdoors. The results are consonant with earlier research in most respects, except that population density is negatively related to exposure. Ethnic minorities and children receive the greatest exposure levels. The highest income group exhibits a strongly negative association with exposure.     

Accounting-Based Stock Price Anomalies: Separating Market Inefficiencies from Risk*

Abstract. We examine six accounting-based stock price anomalies using two sets of tests to determine the extent to which the anomalies (1) represent market mispricing or (2) reflect premia for unidentified risks. Market mispricing is indicated if the anomalous returns are concentrated around subsequent earnings announcements in patterns suggesting that the earnings information causes traders to re-examine their prior (incorrect) beliefs. Mispricing is also indicated if anomalous returns on zero-investment portfolios are positive, period after period. Our results indicate that an anomaly based on earnings momentum probably reflects market mispricing, but that two value-glamour anomalies (based on the book-market ratio and the earnings-price ratio), and two anomalies based on computerized fundamental analyses (from Ou and Penman 1989 and Holthausen and Larcker 1992) are more likely to reflect risk premia than indicated by prior research. Evidence on a sixth anomaly, based on price momentum, is mixed.     

Long‐Run Inflation and the Distorting Effects of Sticky Wages and Technical Change

We show that the Calvo price‐setting model is not necessarily inconsistent with evidence of a weak relation between positive trend inflation and price dispersion. We identify the interaction between sticky wages and technical change as factors disrupting the allocative role of the wage system under positive trend inflation. In turn, this interaction generates inefficient wage dispersion, as opposed to price dispersion, which fuels inflation costs. We conclude that it is too early to dismiss the New Keynesian model as a useful vehicle to assess the costs of inflation.     

A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions

Deteriorating economic conditions in late 2008 led the Federal Reserve to lower the target federal funds rate to near zero, inject liquidity through novel facilities, and engage in large‐scale asset purchases. The combination of conventional and unconventional policy measures prevents using the effective federal funds rate to assess the effects of monetary policy beyond 2008. We employ a broad monetary aggregate to elicit the effects of monetary policy shocks both before and after 2008. Our estimates align well with major changes in the Fed's asset purchase programs and yield responses that are free from price, output, and liquidity puzzles that plague other approaches.     

PROFESSIONAL SPORTS, HURRICANE KATRINA, AND THE ECONOMIC REDEVELOPMENT OF NEW ORLEANS

Hurricane Katrina devastated the city of New Orleans in late August 2005, resulting in damage to much of the city’s sports infrastructure and the departure of both of New Orleans’ major‐league professional sports teams, the National Football League Saints and the National Basketball Association Hornets. What should the city provide in the way of financial accommodation to encourage them to return? This paper suggests that post‐Katrina New Orleans will have a difficult time retaining their franchises over the long run and in attempting to do so may hinder the redevelopment of the city. Furthermore, the very incentives designed to attract teams in the first place leave cities vulnerable to their departure in times of crisis. Finally, playing host to professional sports and mega‐events does have symbolic significance, but it is arguable that this is an amenity the city cannot currently afford. (JEL H25, H71, H40, L83, Q54)     

Does Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift in Stock Prices Reflect A Market Inefficiency? A Stochastic Dominance Approach

This paper uses a stochastic dominance approach to test for market efficiency following earnings announcements. We find that the stocks that recently announced good earnings news stochastically dominate those that recently announced bad news. The results cast serious doubt on any belief that asset pricing model misspecifications might explain post-earnings-announcement drift.     

Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior

This study examines whether security analysts underreact or overreact to prior earnings information, and whether any such behavior could explain previously documented anomalous stock price movements. We present evidence that analysts' forecasts underreact to recent earnings. This feature of the forecasts is consistent with certain properties of the naive seasonal random walk forecast that Bernard and Thomas (1990) hypothesize underlie the well-known anomalous post-earnings-announcement drift. However, the underreactions in analysts' forecasts are at most only about half as large as necessary to explain the magnitude of the drift. We also document that the “extreme” analysts' forecasts studied by DeBondt and Thaler (1990) cannot be viewed as overreactions to earnings, and are not clearly linked to the stock price overreactions discussed in DeBondt and Thaler ( 1985 , 1987 ) and Chopra, Lakonishok, and Ritter (Forthcoming). We conclude that security analysts' behavior is at best only a partial explanation for stock price underreaction to earnings, and may be unrelated to stock price overreactions.     

THE VALUE OF CLEANER AIR: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

Policymakers in the legislative and regulatory arenas face increasing public expectations that authorities will both promulgate and implement strict environmental programs. At the same time, the aggregate cost of such programs is rising and is impacting economic sectors previously untouched. In this context, a major study used an integrated interdisciplinary perspective to determine what economic benefits would result from air pollution controls. Specifically, the study developed estimates for the health benefits of reducing ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations in the nation's most polluted region—the South Coast Air Basin centering on Los Angeles. This paper presents the economic methodologies and results of that study. It also discusses how health and atmospheric sciences informed the economic assessment.