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151.
We propose an empirical commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators. While the power of trend-extrapolating chartists
is constant over time, the symmetric impact of stabilizing fundamentalists adjusts endogenously according to market circumstances:
Using monthly data for various commodities such as cotton, sugar or zinc, our STAR–GARCH model indicates that their influence
positively depends on the distance between the commodity price and its long-run equilibrium value. Fundamentalists seem to
become more and more convinced that mean reversion will set in as the mispricing enlarges. Commodity price cycles may thus
emerge due to the nonlinear interplay between different trader types.
The paper represents the authors’ personal opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank. 相似文献
152.
Beniamina Buzzo Margari Fabrizio Erbetta Carmelo Petraglia Massimiliano Piacenza 《Journal of Regulatory Economics》2007,32(2):131-151
This paper assesses the impact of regulatory and environmental factors and statistical noise on the efficiency of public transit
systems within a DEA-based framework. Using a panel of Italian companies, we implement a DEA-SFA mixed approach based on [H.O.
Fried et al. (2002) Journal of Productivity Analysis, 17(1–2), 157–174] to decompose DEA inefficiency measures into three components: exogenous effects, managerial inefficiency and
stochastic events. Besides providing evidence on the determinants of input-specific efficiency differentials across companies,
the results point out that managerial skills play a minor role, and emphasize the relevance of regulatory policies aimed at
replacing cost-plus subsidization with high-powered incentive contracts as well as improving environmental conditions of public
transit networks.
相似文献
153.
This study examines the magnitude and determinants of the establishment-size wage premium in five European countries using a unique harmonised matched employer–employee data set (the 1995 European Structure of Earnings Survey). This data set enables to test the validity of various traditional explanations of the size wage gap (i.e. the labour quality hypothesis, the theory of compensating wage differentials, the role of monitoring and institutions) and of more recent hypotheses (i.e. size differences in job stability and in the concentration of skilled workers). We find some support for traditional explanations, but there remains a significant wage premium for workers employed in large establishments. Further results indicate that the magnitude of this premium fluctuates substantially across countries and appears to be negatively correlated with the degree of corporatism. 相似文献
154.
Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating
rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which
have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on
1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic
policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided
(ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy
stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).
相似文献
155.
Stefanie Eifler 《Quality and Quantity》2007,41(2):303-318
In this paper, the validity of vignette analyses of various forms of deviant behavior in the presence of opportunities is
analyzed on the basis of ideas derived from cognitive psychology. Abelson’s Script Theory together with insights into human
memory of visual and verbal information, allow the assumption that vignette analyses using visual stimuli are valid measures
of deviant behavior in particular. The study includes an empirical examination of these ideas (n = 450). Nonparticipant observations and vignette analyses with visual and verbal material were carried out with regard to
three forms of deviant behavior occurring in the presence of opportunities presenting themselves in everyday life. Observed
and self-reported frequencies of deviant behavior or deviant intentions were counted and cross-tabulated. Log-linear analyses
with dummy coding using observation data as reference category were run. Data analyses yielded the result that frequencies
of deviant behavior were related to the techniques of data collection under consideration. Especially vignette analyses of
the return of ‘lost letters’ that use both visual and verbal stimuli overestimate ‘actual’ (i.e. observed) return rates. This
result is discussed with regard to the underlying methodological assumptions as well as its implications. 相似文献
156.
Financial distress precedes bankruptcy. Most financial distress models actually rely on bankruptcy data, which is easier to
obtain. We obtained a dataset of financially distressed but not yet bankrupt companies supplying a major auto manufacturer.
An early warning model successfully discriminated between these distressed companies and a second group of similar but healthy
companies. Previous researchers argue the matched-sample design, on which some earlier models were built, causes bias. To
test for bias, the dataset was partitioned into smaller samples that approach equal groupings. We statistically confirm the
presence of a bias and describe its impact on estimated classification rates. 相似文献
157.
Alexandre M. Baptista 《Economic Theory》2007,31(2):205-212
In a seminal paper, Ross (Q J Econ 90:75–89, 1976) shows that if security markets are resolving, then there exist (non-redundant)
options that generate complete security markets. Complementing his work, Aliprantis and Tourky (2002) show that if security
markets are strongly resolving and the number of primitive securities is less than half the number of states, then every option is non-redundant. Our paper extends Aliprantis and Tourky’s result to the case when
their condition on the number of primitive securities is not imposed. Specifically, we show that if there exists no binary
payoff vector in the asset span, then for each portfolio there exists a set of exercise prices of full measure such that any
option on the portfolio with an exercise price in this set is non-redundant. Since the condition that there exists no binary
payoff vector in the asset span holds generically, redundant options are thus rare.
I am grateful to an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. Research support from the School of Business at The George
Washington University is gratefully acknowledged 相似文献
158.
The paper considers what can be inferred about experimental subjects’ time preferences for consumption from responses to laboratory
tasks involving tradeoffs between sums of money at different dates, if subjects can reschedule consumption spending relative
to income in external capital markets. It distinguishes three approaches identifiable in the literature: the straightforward
view; the separation view; and the censored data view. It shows that none of these is fully satisfactory and discusses the
resulting implications for intertemporal decision-making experiments.
JEL Classification C90, C91, D90, D91, D11, D12 相似文献
159.
160.
The lagging development of many minority communities has had an adverse effect on economic growth in the United States. One factor historically associated with creating or exacerbating this minority problem is the unwillingness of banks to service minority communities adequately. The federal government used two initiatives to address banks' reluctance to aid minorities: the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) that ended the practice of redlining and required all federally regulated banks to demonstrate that they served the convenience and credit needs of their local communities, particularly minorities, women, and other underserved groups, and the establishment and preservation of minority owned banks that were expected to be more sympathetic to the needs of their communities. This paper evaluates the extent to which minority banks have met the needs of minority communities. The assessment is conducted in the context of the ratings received by minority banks on their Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) audits. Through the use of CRA audits, the performance of minority banks is also compared to the performance of the general banking community to determine the validity and success of the government's minority banking initiative. Analysis of CRA audit ratings also compares the performance of minority banks among different ethnicities. 相似文献