Evidence-based risk assessment

A knowledge framework for medical manual revision, competitive underwriting, accurate risk assessment, and precision decision making.     

Is the model “loans‐plus‐savings” better for microfinance in Eastern Europe and Central Asia? A propensity score matching comparison

Microfinance institutions are gradually evolving into multiservice organizations offering not only loans but also savings, and other financial and nonfinancial services. We contribute to the literature aimed at identifying how combining credit with savings affects outreach and sustainability in microfinance institutions (MFIs). We apply the propensity score matching method as well as its augmented dose–response version to compare the performance of loans‐plus‐savings MFIs with that of lending‐only in a sample of 710 observations from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Owing to our unique capital structure data, we control for the use of subsidized capital, which related work ignores while existing evidence points to tradeoffs between subsidies and savings. We find that financial performance and breadth of outreach are positively associated with savings mobilization, while the evidence on depth of outreach points to a possible mission drift.     

The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products

In this article, we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990–2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive margin—number of exported products—or the intensive margin—volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, whereas the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products.     

Are In‐House and Outsourcing Innovation Strategies Correlated? Evidence from the European Agri‐Food Sector

We analyse European agri‐food firms’ choices about innovation in‐house or through outsourcing and provide empirical evidence about the correlation between these strategies. The relationship between the innovation strategy and firm‐, industry‐ and innovation‐specific characteristics is analysed through a bivariate probit model, which uses firm data from the EFIGE Bruegel‐UniCredit dataset. Transaction cost, resource base and knowledge governance arguments are used to explain the choice of innovation strategy. Our results show that the decisions to innovate in‐house or through outsourcing are independent from each other. In addition, we find that several organisational characteristics such as communication systems, human resource practices and specialisation are likely to influence both strategies. Conversely, organisational characteristics such as the allocation of authority and the business network do not seem relevant in determining the innovation strategies of the European agri‐food sector.     

Imported Intermediate Inputs and Firms’ Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Food Industry

Imported goods play a central role in determining the gains from trade. Using detailed trade and firm‐level data for Italy and France, we investigate the relationship between trade integration, imported intermediate inputs and firm performance in the food industry. Our main findings show that an increase in import competition spurs firm‐level productivity growth. Furthermore, the productivity growth effect attributable to imported intermediate inputs is significantly stronger than the effect due to imported final products. In addition, we find that new imported inputs are of particular importance, especially for Italian food firms, though less so for the French firms. Finally, the productivity growth effect of trade integration tends to be asymmetric across firms: more productive firms gain more from trade integration. These stylised facts have interesting policy implications.     

Influences of visual attributes of food packaging on consumer preference and associations with taste and healthiness

Two experiments designed to investigate how the shape and colour of packaging, and product category, conjointly impact consumers’ product and packaging expectations are reported. In Experiment 1, the shape (rounded vs. angular) and visual appearance (greyscale, red‐to‐yellow and blue‐to‐green colour schemes) of the packaging were manipulated. Dependent measures were preference (willingness to purchase the product, how attention‐capturing the packaging is, and the pleasantness of the design) and any taste associations. In Experiment 2, shape (rounded vs. angular), colour (red‐to‐yellow vs. blue‐to‐green colour schemes), and product category (buttery vs. cereal cookies) were manipulated. In this case, the dependent measures were the perceived product healthiness and the preference of consumers. The results of Experiment 1 revealed that packaging colour influenced product preference. Red‐to‐yellow and blue‐to‐green colour schemes and angular packaging were preferred over greyscale and round packaging. Colour also influenced taste associations, while shape only influenced ratings of expected sweetness. In Experiment 2, packaging shape and product category influenced product preference. In particular, rounded packaging and the packaging of buttery cookies were preferred over angular packaging and the cereal cookies packaging. The healthiness of the product was rated higher for the rounded and red‐to‐yellow packaging containing a buttery product. Taken together, these results highlight the important role played by colour, shape, and category on the expectations and associations elicited by viewing product packaging.