Export Performance of Brazilian States to Mercosul and Non-Mercosul Partners

ABSTRACT

We investigate the role of the trade-weighted real exchange rate and foreign income on the export performance of Brazilian states, differentiating between Mercosur and non-Mercosur partners. The results indicate that state exports are price and income inelastic. There are differences in the influence of the different trade factors between the two groups of partners. One crucial difference is the relevance of the real exchange rate effect for non-Mercosur partners. This might be associated with the existence of specific rules for Mercosur that can overcome the usual effect of relative competitiveness associated with movements in the real exchange rate.     

An Analysis of Country Image of Brazil and Its Fresh Fruits: A Two Scales Comparison

The ever-increasing trade openness has raised the importance of the country image construct. Despite the number of articles published on the image of many countries worldwide, little focus has been paid to Brazil so far. The present study is aimed at measuring the country image of Brazil and its fresh fruits by comparing two different scales, one developed by Pisharodi and Parameswaran (1992) and the other by Nebenzahl, Jaffe, and Usunier (2003). The method used was a cross-sectional one, with the survey being characterized as quantitative and involving the application of questionnaires to 223 students of the Royal Agricultural College in England. The scales yielded five and three strong correlations, respectively. The image of Brazil was found to be negative in the former scale, whereas the latter one showed a positive image. The present research has contributed not only to further the discussion on the existing gap in the literature regarding “country image” but also to provide useful information for both marketing professionals and government agencies with the aim of strengthening the image of Brazil.     

US stock market sensitivity to interest and inflation rates: a quantile regression approach

This article studies the sensitivity of the US stock market to nominal and real interest rates and inflation during the 2003–2013 period using quantile regression (QR). The empirical results show that the stock market has a significant sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation and finds differences across sectors and over time. Moreover, the effect of changes in both interest rates and inflation tends to be more pronounced during extreme market conditions, thus distinguishing expansion periods from recession periods.     

Location strategies for agglomeration economies

Because agglomeration economies may create competitive advantage and each location has a unique array of agglomeration economies, where should firms locate? We combine fundamental economic and strategy concepts to: (1) determine when firms must locate proximately to access factor pools; (2) show that factor pools controlled by fewer firms are less useful to new entrants; and (3) demonstrate that certain firms risk aiding competitors when contributing to efficient factor pools. We find support for our predictions with a test on new U.S. manufacturing entrants from 1985 to 1994, using an empirical specification that separates agglomeration levels from agglomeration economies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-speed rail transport valuation and conjecture shocks

In this paper, we derive the optimal investment policy in a high-speed rail transport (HSR) project. We assume that the source of uncertainty comes from the annual demand, and that it follows a geometric Brownian motion with jumps of random magnitude, occurring in random times, according to a Poisson process. We assess the impact of these shocks on the demand threshold, along with the investment opportunity value and option to differ. We consider several distributions for these jumps, and we compare with the no-jumps case. Numerical results are presented, showing the importance of assumptions about the underlying stochastic process.     

Environmental Management Systems and Local Community Perceptions: the Case of Petrochemical Complexes Located in Ports

Most oil refineries and factories producing basic chemical products are located in port areas, with the result that industrial complexes potentially have a strong environmental impact on their area of influence. These externalities result in a loss of welfare for citizens residing in neighbouring areas. In a context of sustainable development, companies must integrate concerns about the natural environment in their business strategy. External stakeholders, as residents, find it difficult to visualize the actions firms take to reduce their environmental impact, and the adoption of voluntary certified environmental management systems (EMSs) acts as a signal indicating the adequate environmental behaviour of these companies. These certifications enable companies to achieve the social legitimacy they need for long‐term survival and competitiveness. In the context of a petrochemical industrial complex located in the port of Castellón (Spain), this paper primarily discusses whether such certifications – which act as signals of firms’ desirable environmental conduct – translate into higher trust in firms and lower risk perception by residents. Contrary to what might be expected, despite the widespread use by companies of voluntary and certified EMSs, the research findings confirm a relatively high citizen perception of risk regarding the industrial complex and a low trust in companies. On the other hand, the findings also show a low trust in the public institutions responsible for authorizing and monitoring firms’ activities and for enforcing possible sanctions in non‐compliance cases. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Real Options Valuation: A Case Study of an E‐commerce Company

This paper presents a real options valuation model with original solutions to some issues that arise frequently when trying to apply these models to real‐life situations. The authors build on existing models by introducing an innovative and intuitive risk neutral adjustment that allows us to work with all the simulated paths. The problem of incorporating real options into each path is solved with a “nearest neighbors” technique, and uncertainty is simulated using a beta distribution that adapts better to company‐specific information. The model is then applied to a real life e‐commerce company to produce the following insights: the expanded present value is higher than the traditional present value; the presence of several real options make them interact so that their values are nonadditive; and part of the expanded present value is explained by the presence of “Jensen's inequality” that stems from the “convexity” between the value of each year's cash flow and the uncertain variables.     

Neural network volatility forecasts

We analyse whether the use of neural networks can improve ‘traditional’ volatility forecasts from time-series models, as well as implied volatilities obtained from options on futures on the Spanish stock market index, the IBEX-35. One of our main contributions is to explore the predictive ability of neural networks that incorporate both implied volatility information and historical time-series information. Our results show that the general regression neural network forecasts improve the information content of implied volatilities and enhance the predictive ability of the models. Our analysis is also consistent with the results from prior research studies showing that implied volatility is an unbiased forecast of future volatility and that time-series models have lower explanatory power than implied volatility. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.