Portfolio choice and equilibrium in capital markets with safety-first investors

This paper develops optimal portfolio choice and market equilibrium when investors behave according to a generalized lexicographic safety-first rule. We show that the mutual fund separation property holds for the optimal portfolio choice of a risk-averse safety-first investor. We also derive an explicit valuation formula for the equilibrium value of assets. The valuation formula reduces to the well-known two-parameter capital asset pricing model (CAPM) when investors approximate the tail of the portfolio distribution using Tchebychev's inequality or when the assets have normal or stable Paretian distributions. This shows the robustness of the CAPM to safety-first investors under traditional distributional assumptions. In addition, we indicate how additional information about the portfolio distribution can be incorporated to the safety-first valuation formula to obtain alternative empirically testable models.     

Bond pricing with a surface of zero coupon yields

We present a new method for consistent cross‐sectional pricing of all traded bonds in the fixed income market. By applying thin plate regression splines ( Wood, 2003 ) to bootstrapped zero coupon bond yields ( Hagan and West, 2006 ), the method decomposes traded yields into a risk‐free component plus premia for credit and liquidity risks, where the decomposition is consistent with the market valuations and underlying cash flows of the bonds. We apply the framework to end of quarter yield data from 2008 to 2011 on Australian dollar denominated semi‐government, supranational and agency (SSA) bonds, and find that the surface provides an excellent fit to the underlying zero coupon yield curves. Further, the decomposition of selected yield time series and cross‐sections demonstrates how credit premia increased for Australian SSA bonds through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), but were counterbalanced by liquidity discounts as investors sought safe haven securities.     

Motives in the Acquisitions of NASDAQ Targets during the Aftermath of the 1987 Crash

After the crash of 1987, the Nasdaq composite index stayed below the precrash level for nearly two years. Takeover activity surged in this after‐crash period. We compare the motives in the acquisitions of Nasdaq targets during the after‐crash period with those in the ten‐year period before the crash. We find that the announcement period return to acquirers and the proportion of acquirers with positive gains declines in the after‐crash period. For both the periods, agency is the motive for takeovers that have negative total gains (acquirer + target), but synergy and hubris are comotives for takeovers that have positive total gains. The proportion of takeovers in which the managers of acquirers act against the interest of the shareholders increases after the crash.     

The effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice

This paper determines the effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice under uncertainty. In most realistic problems, the parameters of return distributions are unknown and are estimated using available economic data. Traditional analysis neglects estimation risk by treating the estimated parameters as if they were the true parameters to determine the optimal choice under uncertainty. We show that for normally distributed returns and ‘non-informative’ or ‘invariant’ priors, the admissible set of portfolios taking the estimation uncertainty into account is identical to that given by traditional analysis. However, as a result of estimation risk, the optimal portfolio choice differs from that obtained by traditional analysis. For other plausible priors, the admissible set, and consequently the optimal choice, is shown to differ from that in traditional analysis.     

The effect of limited information and estimation risk on optimal portfolio diversification

This paper analyzes the optimal portfolio choice problem when security returns have a joint multivariate normal distribution with unknown parameters. For the case of limited, but sufficient (sample plus prior) information, we show that for a general family of conjugate priors, the optimal portfolio choice is obtained by the use of a mean-variance analysis that differs from traditional mean-variance analysis due to estimation risk. We also consider two illustrative cases of insufficient sample information and minimal prior information and show that in these cases it is asymptotically optimal for an investor to limit diversification to a subset of the securities. These theoretical results corroborate observed investor behavior in capital markets.     

Education Dashboards for Enhanced Learning: A Singapore Experience

Educators continue to utilize add-ons, extensions, or replacements to traditional Learning Management Systems (LMSs) to supplement capabilities and improve the classroom experience. This work resulted in the design and development of the Education Dashboards for Enhanced Learning (EDEL) template. The EDEL template enables faculty members to create dynamic web spaces called Knowledge Portals (KPortals). A semester-long introduction of KPortals proved to be positive and useful. Students tended to view the KPortal as a “go-to” webspace. The authors hope to refine the template in future studies and examine its usefulness in other countries.     

Role of Shopping Values and Web Atmospherics in E-Satisfaction and Repurchase Intention

Expected to touch US$55 billion in 2016, the e-commerce market in India presents an unprecedented growth opportunity for retailers. Existing studies have identified factors influencing shoppers’ online behaviour pertaining to the developed economies. Hence, it becomes pertinent to validate these antecedents for the economies like India. The article addresses this gap by examining the role of shopping values and web atmospherics, on e-satisfaction of Indian shoppers. Using multiple regression analysis, it also examines the influence of e-satisfaction on repurchase intention. The findings suggest that effectiveness of information content has the most significant impact on e-satisfaction. Web entertainment, utilitarian values and web informativeness are the other influencing factors. Contrary to the earlier studies, this study didn’t find any influence of hedonic shopping values on shoppers’ satisfaction. Also, e-satisfaction was found to have a positive influence on repurchase intention of e-shoppers. The article suggests select strategies that can be adopted by e-retailers.     

A Rose by Any Other Name: Are Family Firms Named After Their Founding Families Rewarded More for Their New Product Introductions?

The authors explore the relation between the way different family firms are named, and the shareholder value impact of these firms’ new product introductions. Using an event study of 1,294 product introduction announcements of 107 publicly listed U.S. family firms, the authors find that the presence of the founding family’s name as part of a family firm’s name acts as a valuable firm resource, increasing the abnormal stock returns surrounding the firm’s new product introductions. Superior returns to family-named firms’ new product introductions are partially mediated by these firms’ history of ethical product-related behavior: family-named firms, particularly those with corporate branding, and those wherein a founding family member holds the CEO or chairman position, are more likely to exhibit a history of avoiding such product-related controversies as product safety issues, and deceptive advertising. The authors highlight the managerial and theoretical contributions of this research.     

The Sensitivity of the General Price Level to Changes in the Price of Crude Oil

There are many direct and indirect effects of changing crude oil prices on the inflation rate, so it is not surprising that there are different views about the resulting effects on the general price level and also on other aspects of the general economy. This study, estimates the direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the economy-wide rate of inflation, which then has effects on spending and producing decisions. However, in this forum, we do not try to estimate the full indirect effects on the level of economic activity, such as effects on real GDP. JEL Classification E310, E370