The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies in Poland

Following the predominance of macroeconomic stabilisation policies and passive income support schemes in the first phase of transition, active labour market policies (ALMPs) have now come to play a more important role in transition economies. This paper looks at the Polish experience and provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of ALMPs. We use the Polish Labour Force Survey of August 1994 in combination with its Supplement on the Evaluation of Labour Market Policies together with data on ALMP expenditure at the regional (voivodship) level. The macroeconometric analysis of the relationship between labour market flows and ALMP expenditure shows no significant effects. The microeconometric analysis reveals that ALMPs are not particularly well targeted at the problem groups in the labour market. That is, women and people with basic vocational education do not receive enough attention. As to the effectiveness of ALMPs, the paper shows that former participants cannot expect to find employment more easily than their peers who have been unemployed but have not been in a programme. Subjective evaluations of former participants also suggest that ALMPs, but especially works programmes, have not improved their chances to find a job. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Die zeitliche Determinierung des Konjunkturbruches

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Bitcoin fluctuations and the frequency of price overreactions

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper investigates the role of the frequency of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market in the case of BitCoin over the period...     

A flexible model for actuarial risks under dependence

Methods for computing risk measures, such as stop-loss premiums, tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. This can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper, a general model is developed which covers what happens in practice in a realistic way. Moreover, it is also flexible, in the sense that it allows application in practice. Accurate and transparent approximations are presented, and the results obtained are illustrated through explicit examples.     

Identification of house price bubbles using user cost in a state space model

This article studies how much variation in house prices results from nonfundamental factors. We propose a relative valuation approach to quantifying a bubble in housing by incorporating the housing User Cost into a state space model. We find that UK house prices were undervalued from January 1995 to May 2001 and subsequently moved into a bubble over the period to October 2012. Our results support the bounded rationality hypothesis in the long run. However, we also find that the irrational and the rational expectation hypotheses can coexist in the short run when explosive bubbles are driven by price dynamics.     

Consumer understanding of food labels: toward a generic tool for identifying the average consumer

The ‘average consumer’ is referred to as a standard in regulatory contexts when attempts are made to benchmark how consumers are expected to reason while decoding food labels. An attempt is made to operationalize this hypothetical ‘average consumer’ by proposing a tool for measuring the level of informedness of an individual consumer against the national median at any time. Informedness, i.e. the individual consumer's ability to interpret correctly the meaning of the words and signs on a food label is isolated as one essential dimension for dividing consumers into three groups: less-informed, informed, and highly informed consumers. Consumer informedness is assessed using a 60-question test related to information found on a variety of Danish everyday food products and divided into factual questions and informedness about signpost labels. A test was made with 407 respondents who participated in four independent studies on fairness in consumer communication, and the average score for all was 57.6% of correct answers. A score of 64% and beyond would place a consumer in the upper quartile (the group of highly informed consumers), whereas a score of 52% or below would place the individual in the lower quartile (the group of less-informed consumers). Female respondents performed better than males on label recognition, and those around 40 years of age irrespective of gender performed best on factual knowledge, whereas those aged around 30 performed best on label recognition. It is foreseen that independent future studies of consumer behavior and decision making in relation to food products in different contexts could benefit from this type of benchmarking tool.     

Zoll oder Monopol? Zu den Problemen der österreichischen Getreidewirtschaft

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

On the Economics of Moral Preferences

Abstract . The long‐standing critique of the “economic model of man” has gained new impetus, not least due to the broadening research in behavioral and experimental economics. Many of the critics have focused on the apparent difficulty of traditional rational choice theory to account for the role of moral or ethical concerns in human conduct, and a number of authors have suggested modifications in the standard model in response to such critique. This article takes issue with a quite commonly adopted “revisionist” strategy, namely, seeking to account for moral concerns by including them as additional preferences in an agent's utility function. It is argued that this strategy ignores the critical difference between preferences over outcomes and preferences over actions, and that it fails to recognize that “moral preferences” belong in the second category. Preferences over actions, however, cannot be consistently accounted for within a theoretical framework that focuses on the rationality of single actions. They require a shift of perspective, from a theory of rational choice to a theory of rule‐following behavior.