Testing the martingale hypothesis for futures prices: Implications for hedgers

The martingale hypothesis for futures prices is investigated using a nonparametric approach where it is assumed that the expected futures returns depend (nonparametrically) on a linear combination of predictors. We first collapse the predictors into a single‐index variable where the weights are identified up to scale, using the average derivative estimator proposed by T. Stoker (1986). We then use the Nadaraya–Watson kernel estimator to calculate (and visually depict) the relationship between the estimated index and the expected futures returns. We discuss implications of this finding for a noninfinitely risk‐averse hedger. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1040–1065, 2008     

The effects of fiscal policy on economic activity in Finland

This study analyzes whether fiscal policy decisions have real effects on the economy of Finland, and if they do, what are the strength and durations of the effects. We utilise the Vector Stochastic Process with Dummy Variables (VSPD) method in our empirical work. This approach is a suitable tool to study event-based episodes. Fiscal policy shocks do have an effect on the economic activity of Finland when the time period 1990–2007 is investigated. A positive tax shock (or a policy that increases public sector revenues) seems to have a positive effect on Investment and GDP but the response of private consumption is mixed. Results clearly indicate that increase in Government spending crowds out private sector activity, and the effect takes place sooner than with the Revenue variable in question. This is a clear evidence for the crowding out effect.     

Financial conglomeration and monitoring incentives

If combining insurance and banking services generates scope economies in terms of monitoring the customers, competition in the financial markets becomes more intense after financial conglomeration. The pro-competitive effect reduces the prices of the financial services, increases monitoring and improves financial stability. Increased monitoring allows financial regulators apply lower capital requirements for financial conglomerates.     

A simple sufficient condition for strong implementation

In an important step forward Maskin [E. Maskin, Nash equilibrium and welfare optimality, Rev. Econ. Stud. 66 (1999) 23–38] showed that two properties – monotonicity and no veto power – are together sufficient for Nash implementation. In contrast to the vast literature that followed, this characterization has two major advantages: First, it is often easy to verify, and second, it has an elegant and simple interpretation. However, there does not exist a similar condition for social choice correspondences that are implementable in strong equilibrium. All existing characterizations are either hard to verify or apply only to comprehensive preference domains. In this paper we improve the situation by giving one such condition. Moreover, using well-known examples we show that this is a practical tool.     

Consumer versus citizen preferences in contingent valuation: evidence on the role of question framing*

Rather than individual consumer preferences, responses to referendum‐style contingent valuation surveys on environmental goods may express citizen assessments that take into account benefits to others. We reconsider the consumer versus citizen hypothesis with a focus on the role of framing information. Survey data on conservation areas in Ilomantsi, Finland, are used. Different versions of the valuation question were used to encourage the respondents to take the consumer or the citizen role. The citizen version expectedly resulted in substantially fewer zero‐WTP responses and protests and higher mean and median WTP, suggesting that the framing information has a major effect on the preferences expressed. The findings support the idea of multiple preferences. For a more confident interpretation of contingent valuation responses, future studies should recognise their intended use in survey design and gain information about respondents' motives to determine the presence and type of altruistic motives.     

Institution Building and Variation in the Formation of the Australian Wool Market

The relocation of the wool market from London to the major Australian port cities from the late nineteenth century required the formation of an institution to govern the auction business, namely the wool brokers' association. Regional variations, among Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, occurred in the structure and effectiveness of the institution despite each regional association having been formed around the same time, for the same purpose, and with an overlap of participating firms. We draw on institution theory to guide our account and find that the impact of legacy factors and differences in market conditions explain the regional variations.     

The Evolution of an Intellectual Community Through the Words of Its Founders: Recollections of Australia's Economic History Field

Analysing the dynamic evolution of a scholarly field requires an understanding of the social interactions within its community as well as the impact of the written word. Influence might diffuse through mentoring, graduate supervision, seminar discussion, and management roles. To date, our knowledge of the growth of economic history in Australia after 1945 draws heavily upon the impact of a number of key publications. We interview a broad selection of academics who worked in the field of Australian economic history, approximately 1950–90, to provide a fuller understanding of the evolution of this interdisciplinary field. Our results confirm, complement and, in some cases, challenge conventional views. © 2016 Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd     

Economies of scale in grocery retailing in Finland

This paper considers the question of store-level economies of scale in grocery retailing. Hedonic price and cost functions are used in modelling the price and cost structure of retailers, but without making the assumption of constant mark-ups, as normally done in hedonic price studies. The main result of the paper is that store-level economies of scale do exist in grocery retailing: large stores have on average 10% lower costs per sold unit than small stores. The second major finding is that most of the benefits from scale economies are passed on to consumers: the price level of large stores is 10% lower on average than of small stores.     

Dynamic paths of innovation in natural resource industries in Australia and Norway since World War Two

This paper challenges Ed Barbier’s influential contribution to the resources and economic development debate and extends our understanding of the process of resource-based development in two relevant economies since World War Two. We argue that: the expansion of resource-based industries remained a viable path of economic development in the ‘contemporary era’ since the 1950s; nations have modernised their economies while continuing to invest in resource industries; and innovation frontiers more than physical frontiers shaped the development of natural resource industries. We build our argument by providing a comparative study of two successful resource-based economies, Australia and Norway. Our focus is on aquaculture and offshore oil and gas, growth industries in both countries. Aquaculture is renewable and of recent origin, offshore oil and gas is non-renewable but with a longer history in other nations. Differences between the two nations are also discussed, particularly the narrower product specialisations of Norway. In both nations and both industries, though, there are common patterns of knowledge-intensive development through three stages – learning from older and imported technologies, the development of national capabilities, and their exploitation overseas through internationalisation – that draw upon the relationship between the resource sector and its supporting enabling sector.