郭俊的书画

郭俊，中国书画研究会副会长，中国工艺美术家协会会员，北京民族画院理事，重庆市美术家协会渝中区美协副主席。自幼酷爱书画。广求名师，师从四川美术学院杨富明教授，并得到著名画家苏葆桢、黄纯尧、水华、周北溪等先生的指教。作品继承传统，师法自然，风格别具，     

Policy Reform in the European Union Dairy Sector: Effects on Markets and Welfare

This paper analyzes the impacts of policy reforms in the EU dairy sector. It is shown that the imple-mentation of GATT agreements leads to a 4% decrease in the milk price. Prices of SMP and WMP decrease more than butter and cheese prices. EU welfare increases marginally, but distributive effects are large. The increase in quotas decided by the Berlin Agreement will cause a dramatic cut in the milk price (?10% to ?15% depending on how EU demand will increase in the future). Moreover, because of the constraints on subsidized exports, the implicit price of protein will decrease much more than the price of fat. Finally, if demand expands sufficiently, then compensatory payments (including national envelopes) will cover about 90% of the loss in producer surplus due to the milk price cut. We also inves-tigate the impact of a two-tiered quota system and show that its impacts are similar to those generated by the implementation of GATT agreements. On étudie les effets de différents scénarios de réforme de la politique laitiére européenne. La mise en oeuvre des accords du GATT implique une réduction du prix du lait de 4%. De plus, les baisses de prix des produits transformés sont plus importantes pour les poudres de lait que pour le beurre ou le fro-mage. L'impact des accords sur le bien-ětre est positif mais faible. Par contre les effets redistributifs sont importants. L'augmentation des quotas décidée lors de l'accord de Berlin entra?nera une baisse importante du prix du lait européen, de l'ordre de 10 %à 15 % selon l'évolution de la consommation intérieure. En raison des contraintes d'exportations qui portent principalement sur les produits pro-téiques, le prix implicite de la protéine de lait diminue beaucoup plus que le prix implicite de la matiére grasse laitiére. Par ailleurs, on montre que si la demande européenne s'accro?t suffisamment, les paiements compensatoires prévus couvriront environ 90 % des pertes de revenus des producteurs liées à la baisse du prix du lait. Enfin, on montre que les effets d'un scénario de double prix double quota sont proches de ceux provoqués par la mise en application des accords du GATT.     

Financing minority economic development

Conclusions A close analysis of the capital-asset pricing model’s assumptions and implications for efficient allocation of resources to investment in capital assets can form the basis for changes in the way capital markets are regulated by the federal government and in taxing policy of the government. In particular, our analysis indicates that the value of currently marketed assets can be increased by the inclusion in portfolios of currently nonmarketed assets.Moreover, the value of nonmarketed assets emerges as a significant instrumental variable for policy makers.The government can increase the value of all currently marketed assets by increasing positive changes in the value of nonmarketed assets.This might be accomplished by requiring by legislation or rule, for example, that a certain proportion of the listed securities on any exchange be comprised of the securities of black firms and other firms whose securities are not now marketed.The government might want, by tax incentive, to promote investment in firms with nonmarketed assets.It might want to increase the funding level of institutions such as MESBIC’S supplying equality finance to small black firms.     

The Delisting Bias in CRSP's Nasdaq Data and Its Implications for the Size Effect

We investigate the bias in CRSP's Nasdaq data due to missing returns for delisted stocks. We find that the missing returns are large and negative on average, and that delisted stocks experience a substantial decrease in liquidity. We estimate that using a corrected return of −55 percent for missing performance-related delisting returns corrects the bias. We revisit previous work which finds a size effect among Nasdaq stocks. After correcting for the delisting bias, there is no evidence that there ever was a size effect on Nasdaq. Our results are inconsistent with most risk-based explanations of the size effect.     

Market Segment Response Through Field Experimentation

A key assumption underlying segmentation studies is that marketing efforts have differential effects on market segments. This question was investigated in the context of a field experiment involving enlistment in the armed forces. Approximately 8000 completed questionnaires administered at various stages in the US Navy enlistment recruiting process were collected at two points in time, corresponding to a pre- and post-experimental intervention. Attitudinal data were analysed to identify meaningful segments. Differential responses of market segments to advertising and recruiter changes were found, providing direction for evaluation of, and changes in, the creative component of advertising.     

Evidence of interdependence and contagion using a frequency domain framework

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion, based on the frequency analysis of causality developed recently by Breitung and Candelon [Breitung, J., Candelon, B. 2006. Testing for short and long-run causality: a frequency domain approach, Journal of Econometrics, 12, 363–378.]. This approach handles several of the statistical problems identified in the literature. It also permits clear differentiation between temporary and permanent shifts in cross-market linkages: the first case is contagion while the second one is simply a measure of interdependence among markets. With this new approach, we examine the “Tequila” and Asian crises and find evidence of contagion for both. During the Asian crisis, higher interdependence has also contributed to the diffusion of the crisis in Asia.     

FORECASTING VOLATILITY WITH THE MULTIFRACTAL RANDOM WALK MODEL

We study the problem of forecasting volatility for the multifractal random walk model. In order to avoid the ill‐posed problem of estimating the correlation length T of the model, we introduce a limiting object defined in a quotient space; formally, this object is an infinite range log volatility. For this object and the nonlimiting object, we obtain precise prediction formulas and we apply them to the problem of forecasting volatility and pricing options with the MRW model in the absence of a reliable estimate of σ and T.     

Revisiting the ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment : A conversation

In 1991, futurist Bruce E. Tonn proposed a ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment to the US Constitution. His proposed ‘Court of Generations’ lacked punitive powers but, hopefully, would have sufficient legitimacy to counteract extreme present-minded thinking evident in US political processes and institutions. Although Tonn's ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment has been well received in the futures community, who else has heard of it? Otherwise, has it made any difference? How can the cumbersome and nonfuturistic amendment procedure in the US Constitution generate a futures-oriented ‘Court of Generations’? And for those who sincerely look forward to a ‘Court of Generations,’ precisely what kind of tactically savvy visionary leadership will give the ‘Court of Generations’ any chance of being approved? During 1997, Vincent Kelly Pollard engaged Dr. Tonn in an Internet conversation aimed at clarifying these issues.     

Exchange rate devaluation,monetary policy and wages: A general equilibrium analysis for Chile

A range of devaluation, monetary and wage policy mixes are analysed for the Chilean economy using a 10 sector comparative static model built along neoclassical lines. The model, while focusing on the real side of the economy, also contains a simple monetary sector. Quantifying the short-run implications of each policy mix for key macroeconomic and sectoral variables enables judgements to be made about the effectiveness of each mix in reaching specified targets and their feasibility. Money wage flexibility downwards is crucial if balance of trade and employment targets are to be achieved with lower domestic inflation and a smaller nominal devaluation.     

Technology-based environmental health risks in developing nations

This paper addresses two questions: 1) To what extent are developing nations vulnerable to technology- related environmental health risks? 2) To what extent does the export of hazardous technologies and products contribute to overall levels of environmental health risk in developing nations? The paper focuses on three major types of environmental health risks: the failure of large-scale technological systems; the use or misuse of consumer goods, mechanical devices, and chemicals; and industrial emissions of toxic substances. In addition, three categories of hazardous exports are examined: hazardous products (e.g., pesticides), hazardous production processes (e.g., asbestos processing), and hazardous wastes (e.g., chemical and radioactive waste). The paper concludes that technology-based environmental health risks pose a significant public health problem in most developing nations, even when compared to much larger public health problems such as tropical and gastrointestinal diseases. Technology-based risks are growing in number and frequency. If developing and developed nations continue their current policies, these risks will grow at a significantly greater rate.