The effects of feeding back experts’ own initial ratings in Delphi studies: A randomized trial

This study examined the effects of feeding back experts’ initial ratings on three Delphi outcome measures: (1) the percentage of items on which experts changed their opinion; (2) the degree to which experts changed their ratings towards the group response; and (3) the increase in the level of agreement among experts. Additionally, two conformity indices were developed. Within a real-world Delphi study, experts were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: either their initial ratings were included in feedback (IN) or excluded from feedback (EX). Results showed that experts in the EX condition changed their opinion relatively more often than experts in the IN condition. Results also suggested that experts in the EX condition changed their ratings to a greater degree towards the group response than experts in the IN condition. No difference between conditions was found regarding the increase in the level of agreement.     

The future of drug discovery and development: Shifting emphasis towards personalized medicine

The drug discovery sector is being revolutionized by the current rate of advances in the public and private human genome projects and by the development of new technologies for biomarker testing. In effect, as the genetic roots of disease, disease progression and treatment effectiveness are uncovered, the demand for sophisticated prognostic, diagnostic and monitoring tests will be increasing. Already this has led to the development of innovative diagnostics products meeting the criteria of improved efficacy and safety as well as better cost-benefits. In order to achieve the ultimate goal of a more predictive and personalized medicine requires the drug discovery industry to implement more synergies between the two worlds of clinical research and diagnostics. The therapeutics that are enabled by that strategy are often called “theranostics” — highly specific tests that allow for the diagnosis of the disease, but to administer the most appropriate treatment regimen, and to monitor a patient's response to therapy. Biomarkers will constitute a critical component of the health care delivery system in order to detect, diagnose and monitor diseases and other medical conditions as well as to evaluate treatment options and effectiveness. While diagnostic breakthroughs typically precede therapeutic advances, the presence of new therapies can stimulate the demand for testing. The main question that remains to be answered is how will the biomarker paradigm alters these companies' innovation and commercialization strategies. Whereas developing drug targets may offer greater long-term value, initial commercial opportunities often arise in diagnostics.     

Startup time,innovation and organizational emergence: A study of USA-based international technology ventures

The acceleration of new technology venture launch and growth is an important and rapidly growing field of practice for university-based accelerators, incubators, and technology transfer offices. Based on four comparative case studies of fast-launching clean tech startups in the USA (two of which were university-affiliated), this paper explains how some technology startups are able to develop innovative products, form organizations, internationalize, and release products into global markets very rapidly, and highlights implications for university-sourced ventures. Findings show that two processes, “product emergence” and “organization emergence,” have to be managed strategically, with time as a critical variable to be considered. This paper suggests that there are dynamic tensions between temporal, financial, and human resources in the technology startup process. To start up quickly, the new international technology venture compresses two parallel timelines: product launch and organization launch, which can also accelerate the internationalization process. This study identifies the organizational formation pivot as a risky but necessary transition from a lean, informal, fast-paced technology development project to a structured, legally compliant organization, in the case of a university-sourced venture fully independent from the university that spawned it, that can be trusted for transactions and investment.     

Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil

Global trade contracted quickly and severely during the global crisis. This paper uses a unique dataset of French firms to match export data to firm-level credit constraints and shows that most of the 2008–2009 trade collapse was due to the unprecedented demand shock and to product characteristics. While all firms have been affected by the crisis, the effect on large firms has been mainly at the intensive margin and has resulted in a smaller portfolio of products being offered to export destinations. The effect on smaller exporters has been to reduce the range of destinations served or to stop exporting altogether. Credit constraints have been an added aggravation for firms active in high financial dependence sectors. However, the share of credit constrained firms is small and their number has not increased hugely during the crisis, with the result that the overall impact of credit constraints on trade has been limited.     

A study on the temporal dynamics of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific Region

Using the monthly statistics of tourists from four different origins (America, Europe, Asia and Oceania) among seven places in the Asia Pacific region for a period from January 1991 to December 2005, we investigate these 28 time series using the Holt‐Winters method, artificial neural network and numerical graphical plots. Interesting comparisons on level fluctuations, trends and seasonal patterns of the time series among the Asia Pacific region are explored. These findings enable us to understand more about the temporal aspect of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific region. In sum, this paper lays out the importance of understanding the trend and seasonality indices in details. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crowdsourcing Last Mile Delivery: Strategic Implications and Future Research Directions

The rise of e‐commerce over the past 20 years has created an increased need for responsive omnichannel distribution to meet the last mile challenge. Some companies are experimenting with the use of the sharing economy business model to augment distribution strategies. The use of so‐called “Crowdsourced Logistics” (CSL) is becoming more prevalent in practice, but the role in logistics strategy of this new phenomenon has not been thoroughly investigated and understood. Using a contingency theory lens, this research contributes a nascent understanding of how CSL performs in terms of logistics effectiveness by simulating same‐day delivery services from a distribution center to 1,000 customer locations throughout New York City under dynamic market conditions and by comparing the results to those of a traditional dedicated fleet of delivery drivers. The findings are analyzed to suggest how firms may find strategic benefit using CSL. An agenda for future research is provided to explore these strategic implications and to deepen knowledge about the CSL phenomenon.     

WIENER CHAOS: A NEW APPROACH TO OPTION HEDGING

This paper addresses the problem of estimating and analyzing the residual risk that is not hedged by a discrete hedging strategy. the use of die chaotic representation allows an elegant decomposition of the residual risk to be hedged by adequate assets. Alternative strategies to the classical delta hedging and optimization under the risk-neutral and historical probabilities are discussed.