Economic Analysis of the Policy for Accreditation of Dairy Farms Free of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis: Challenges for Small and Large Producers in Brazil

One of the cornerstones of the National Program for Control and Eradication of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis in Brazil is the voluntary accreditation of free herds. We developed a stochastic cost–benefit analysis model for two types of dairy herds (high yield Holstein‐Zebu crossbred females and lower productivity smaller scale herds) to identify the technical and economic constraints of this process. The initial prevalence of infected animals and the impact of the disease in the structure and performance of the herd were derived from secondary data. Information on the costs and benefits of herd sanitation were compiled into a cost–benefit model at the herd level. The last step consisted of a scenario simulation to evaluate the impact of alternative policies to the certification process. For each scenario, we calculate the probability over time of a Benefit–Cost Ratio greater than 1 and of an Internal Rate of Return above 1% (the discount rate used in the model). Results show that larger and more intensive dairy farms, and also herds affected by brucellosis compared with tuberculosis‐positive herds, are more likely to achieve financial gains from the certification investment. The compensation for culled animals is important in the initial phase of herd sanitation and the premium payment on milk would help farmers to achieve a return on the investment over time. The model can be adapted to different and dynamic production, epidemiological and economic settings.     

Strategic groups in hotel industry： Empirical evidences

The Serra da Estrela Tourism Region （SETR）, gifted of unique landscape conditions, of singular natural resources, filled with culture and history, has become an attractive leisure and recreation region. Considering its tourism potential, we have seen a development of the tourism activities on that region, making necessary a study of the presence of derivative offering components, mainly on the tourism hotels level. Considering the crucial strategic role that this activity has on the region, and since there are only a few follow-up studies of the activity development, the present research aims to contribute for the knowledge of the relevant tourism hotels units reality in the SETR. In this sense, the authors intend to analyze the different strategies that are being taken in the region, by this sort of companies and, to identify the existence （or not） of company groups that carry on similar strategies--strategic groups. To reach such goals, an empirical study was developed, based upon the information obtained from the statistical analysis of questionnaires applied to the hotels unit＇s managers. The results allowed concluding that the hotels units enforce combined strategies, instead of a single specific strategy. It was also possible to identify the existence of different strategic groups that use similar competitive strategies. From this process, it also resulted that the companies that operate in this sector consider that strategy assumes a determinative role for the success of their activity.     

Surplus extraction with rich type spaces

We characterize revenue maximizing mechanisms in auction settings with ‘rich’ type spaces, where bidders obtain information from sources other than their own valuation. By considering a relaxed problem, we provide an upper bound on revenue extraction that explicitly builds on the richness of the information structure. We provide a condition under which this upper bound is achieved and describe an optimal mechanism. Under this condition, we also show that the optimal revenue can be achieved through dominant strategy implementation.     

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns: Consumer Confidence and the dotcom bubble

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a ‘bubble’ period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.     

Situational analysis beyond 'single-exit' modelling

Situational analysis (SA) is currently the method of mainstreammicroeconomics, and this paper maintains that it may also performan important role in heterodox research programmes in economics.Its most elaborate version in economics, the ‘single-exit’modelling approach, is an epistemologically driven endeavourwhich does not take full account of the way our world works.In this paper, it is argued that a fully consistent SA thatis firmly grounded on sound human ontological foundations canbe pursued if it is detached from the Rationality Principle,if closed-system modelling is abandoned, and if a retroductivemode of inference is embraced.     

Earnings forecasts: the case for combining analysts’ estimates with a cross-sectional model

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We propose a novel method to forecast corporate earnings, which combines the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts with the unbiasedness of a...