MARKET EFFICIENCY: EVIDENCE FROM A NO-BUBBLE ASSET MARKET EXPERIMENT

Abstract.  We report the results of an experiment that demonstrates that market experience is not necessary to eliminate bubbles in the type of asset markets studied in Smith et al . (1988) . We introduce a pre-market phase in which subjects experience a dividend flow themselves by literally observing and receiving dividends for 12 periods. The robust bubble–crash phenomenon never occurs in our experiment. Our results provide strong evidence that so long as a majority of the subjects have full understanding of the structure of the dividend, market efficiency can be ensured.     

Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence

This paper tests for the influence of political instability on UK economic growth between 1961 and 1997. We construct six variables that quantify political instability and examine the effect on growth. The results suggest that there is a strong link. GARCH‐M models reveal negative effects of instability on growth and positive effects on growth uncertainty. Uncertainty in itself does not affect growth.     

Dairy-Substitute Products: Impact on the Canadian Industry

Any opinions and positions expressed in this paper are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Agriculture Canada or of the Government of Canada     

Exploration in product usage: A model of use innovativeness

In this article a conceptual model of use innovativeness is proposed. Use innovativeness is positioned within the broader innate innovativeness construct. Use innovativeness is conceptualized as a consumer's receptivity/attraction to and creativity with using products in new ways. Thus, use innovativeness focuses on the origination and production of new product uses rather than the adoption of new products. Relationships between innovativeness, use innovativeness, and use behaviors are explicated. In addition, issues in construct measurement and validation are also highlighted. Finally, a research agenda that flows from the proposed model is suggested. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Metropolitan suburbanization and central city problems

This paper is an empirical study of effects of central city problems on population and employment suburbanization. It is widely believed that high crime, high taxes, and large minority groups in central cities are important causes of rapid suburbanization of U.S. metropolitan areas. A large set of density functions is estimated for population and employment in U.S. metropolitan areas in 1960 and 1970. Thus, relative central city and suburban measures of crime, taxes, etc., are used in an interactive model to explain population and employment suburbanization. It is found that only racial minorities have an effect on suburbanization.     

Time-varying managerial overconfidence and pecking order preference

This paper examines whether managerial overconfidence enhances or weakens pecking order preference. We construct time-varying managerial words-based (i.e. tone of Chairman’s Statement) and action-based (i.e. firm investment and directors’ trading) overconfidence measures. Both optimistic tone and industry-adjusted investment have significant and negative impacts on the pecking order coefficient in the Shyam-Sunder and Myers (J Financ Econ 51:219–244, 1999) regression framework. Overconfident managers tend to use more equity than debt to finance deficits. This new evidence is consistent with the proposition that overconfident managers who underestimate the riskiness of future earnings believe that their debt (equity) is undervalued (overvalued) and therefore prefer equity to debt financing. Thus, managerial overconfidence can lead to a reverse pecking order preference. We also find that managerial overconfidence significantly weakens pecking order preference especially in firms with high earnings volatility and small firms.     

Book briefs

Food policy: Integrating supply, distribution and consumption, EDI series in economic development, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London, 1987

Food poverty and consumption patterns in Kenya, International Labour Office, Geneva, 1986     

The Impact of Deregulation on Efficiency: An Analysis of Life Insurance Industry in Taiwan From 1981 to 2004

We examine the impact of deregulation and liberalization (D&L) on the efficiency of the Taiwanese life insurance industry from 1981 to 2004. We utilize the data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency performances and the Malmquist index approach to measure changes in efficiency and productivity over time. Both the DEA and Malmquist results show that the old domestic firms have been slightly impacted by the new competitors around 1992–1994 (the end of foreign and new local entry period and the beginning of post-D&L period). More important, our results show that the D&L does not have major adverse impact on the technical, cost, and revenue efficiency performances of existing domestic firms in the long run. The dominance of existing domestic firms has declined but persists throughout the sample period. In addition, our results show that it is relatively easy for new firms to become technically efficient in just few years after entering the market, but it is more difficult for them to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency. We, thus, suggest that a new market entrant should take advantage of the existing mechanisms by acquiring an old (existing) firm, rather than establish a new one, if a new entrant wants to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency in a short time.