Gaming-simulation of the functioning of economic systems

This article attempts to provide a structure-functional analysis of economic activity and propositions based on this analysis about applications of gaming-simulation for an institutionalist study of the functioning of economic systems. Modern institutionalism in contrast to neoclassical economics, which is to a great extent mathematicized, does not actually use any quantitative methods and models. Simulation games represent such models that can be designed and promote the implementation of research in the spirit of neoinstitutional economics. In this sense, gaming-simulation may be considered as institutional modeling. In this work we shall, first be concerned with a ‘static’ structure of economic activity deriving from the three-level scheme by Parsons. Next, a ‘dynamic’ structure of economic activity will be analyzed in terms of the concept of limited rationality by Simon. In the final section, we characterize the methods of reflection of different components of economic systems in gaming simulation models, as well as ways of implementing the research on such models.     

Real Options: Meeting the Georgetown Challange

In response to the demand for a single, generally accepted real options methodology, this article proposes a four‐step process leading to a practical solution to most applications of real option analysis. The first step is familiar: calculate the standard net present value of the project assuming no managerial flexibility, which results in a value estimate (and a “branch” of a decision tree) for each year of the project's life. The second step estimates the volatility of the value of the project and produces a value tree designed to capture the main sources of uncertainty. Note that the authors focus on the uncertainty about overall project value, which is driven by uncertainty in revenue growth, operating margins, operating leverage, input costs, and technology. The key point here is that, in contrast to many real options approaches, none of these variables taken alone is assumed to be a reliable surrogate for the uncertainty of the project itself. For example, in assessing the option value of a proven oil reserve, the relevant measure of volatility is the volatility not of oil prices, but of the value of the operating entity—that is, the project value without leverage. The third step attempts to capture managerial flexibility using a decision “tree” that illustrates the decisions to be made, their possible outcomes, and their corresponding probabilities. The article illustrate various kinds of applications, including a phased investment in a chemical plant (which is treated as a compound option) and an investment in a peak‐load power plant (a switching option with changing variance, which precludes the use of constant risk‐neutral probabilities as in standard decision tree analysis). The fourth and final step uses a “no‐arbitrage” approach to form a replicating portfolio with the same payouts as the real option. For most corporate investment projects, it is impossible to locate a “twin security” that trades in the market. In the absence of such a security, the conventional NPV of a project (again, without flexibility) is the best candidate for a perfectly correlated underlying asset because it represents management's best estimate of value based on the expected cash flows of the project.     

Institutional deficit and health outcomes in post-communist states

In this paper we draw upon the unique natural experiment of post-communist transitions to show how the interaction between democratization and economic liberalization impacts health. We argue that, if occurring simultaneously, these transformations reduce overall uncertainty and thus improve health. Two concrete mechanisms are at work: first, people suffer less from stress-related diseases, and second, they start investing more in their own health. To capture the proposed theoretical mechanisms, we use stress-caused mortality and private expenditures on health as our dependent variables. Empirically, we employ mediation analysis with country and time fixed effects. We find that, ceteris paribus, democratization and economic liberalization exert a cumulatively positive impact upon health. Our findings should be relevant to other countries that undergo politico-economic transitions.     

Quarter-End Effects in Banks: Preferred Habitat or Window Dressing?

Allen and Saunders [Allen, A., and A. Saunders. “Bank Window Dressing: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Banking and Finance 16 (1992), 583–623.] document abnormal behavior of bank assets and liabilities at the turn-of-the-quarter and attribute it to window dressing by banks. Using different methods we re-visit bank turn-of-the-quarter balance sheet activity. We also examine quarter-end changes in the effective fed funds rates and fed funds rate standard deviations. We confirm the presence of turn-of-the-quarter activity on bank balance sheets and in the fed funds market. However, we conclude that the turn-of-the-quarter effects are more consistent with customer preferred habitats than window dressing.     

The impact of restructuring and deregulation on gas rates

This article evaluates the impact of consumer choice programs, price caps, and sliding scale plans on consumer prices of gas using a custom survey of public service commissions and data from the Department of Energy. A seemingly unrelated regressions model estimates residential, commercial and industrial prices jointly, controlling for potentially endogenous demand. Consumer choice programs are estimated to lower residential and commercial prices significantly, by bringing competition to markets with smaller consumers. Prices fall even before deregulation as utilities build consumer loyalty and fight competition. Sliding scale plans are estimated to lower prices of small consumers while raising industrial prices. Price caps lead to overall higher prices, with unclear ranking across consumer classes.      

Implementation of International Environmental Commitments in Countries in Transition

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

New transport system formation as an entrance to the world market for Siberian regions

Russia is now essentially more open to the world market and to the world community. The geographical reasons predetermine the shortest way of connection between Europe and North East Asia (NEA); it is the railroad through Russia, using Transsiberia. The Yenisei River is the shortest and the cheapest way to the North East Route (NER) for many regions of Siberia. The problem of using NER is now very interesting for the states of Northern Europe, Japan, and South Korea. There are a lot of resources in Siberia—timber, nonferrous metals (lead and zinc), gold, oil and gas, and the cheapest source of electricity. Based on this combination, it is possible to produce many kinds of goods (not only resources). There are some negotiations with China, Japan, and South Korea about the so‐called “East Energy Bridge,” for the purpose of the transmission of electricity and gas from East Siberia.     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.