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111.
Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined. 相似文献
112.
Richard B. Howarth 《Ecological Economics》2007,63(4):656-663
This paper examines the concept of sustainability and its implications for environmental policy analysis. It builds on the premise that present society holds a moral obligation to pass on a world of undiminished life opportunities to members of future generations. Maintaining life opportunities, in turn, can be achieved by maintaining or improving a diverse set of resources and capabilities that support a person's freedom to define and pursue her own conception of the good life. On an operational level, this framework points to the following guideline for environmental policy: Protecting the rights of future generations requires either the conservation of environmental resources or compensatory measures (including the provision of substitute technologies) that ensure the fair and proportionate sharing of net benefits over intergenerational time scales. In this framework, resource depletion is permissible only if (with reasonable certainty) it would generate a Pareto improvement relative to a baseline scenario involving strict resource conservation. 相似文献
113.
The literature on mergers has extensively analyzed the decision to merge by private firms, but it has not considered the decision to merge by private and public firms. We assume that when a private firm and a public firm merge (or when one of them acquires the other), they set up a multiproduct firm in which the government owns an exogenous percentage stake. In this framework, we show that the decision to merge by firms depends on the degree to which goods are substitutes and on the percentage of the shares owned by the government in the multiproduct firm. 相似文献
114.
Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India
Christoph Böhringer Klaus Conrad Andreas Löschel 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2003,24(1):49-76
Germany has committed itself toreducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. Toachieve this goal, the government has recentlylaunched an environmental tax reform whichentails a continuous increase in energy taxesin conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut innon-wage labor costs. This policy is supposedto yield a double dividend, reducing both, theproblem of global warming and high unemploymentrates. In addition to domestic actions,international treaties on climate protectionallow for the supplementary use of flexibleinstruments to exploit cheaper emissionreduction possibilities elsewhere. One concreteoption for Germany would be to enter jointimplementation (JI) with developing countriessuch as India where Germany pays emissionreduction abroad rather than meeting itsreduction target solely by domestic action. Inthis paper, we investigate whether anenvironmental tax reform cum JI providesemployment and overall efficiency gains ascompared to an environmental tax reformstand-alone. We address this question in theframework of a large-scale general equilibriummodel for Germany and India where Germany mayundertake JI with the Indian electricitysector. Our main finding is that JI offsetslargely the adverse effects of carbon emissionconstraints on the German economy. JIsignificantly lowers the level of carbon taxesand thus reduces the total costs of abatementas well as negative effects on labor demand. Inaddition, JI triggers direct investment demandfor energy efficient power plants produced inGermany. This provides positive employmenteffects and additional income for Germany. ForIndia, joint implementation equips itselectricity industry with scarce capital goodsleading to a more efficient power productionwith lower electricity prices for the economyand substantial welfare gains. 相似文献
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118.
Kwang-Hyun Chung Rudolph A. Jacob Ya B. Tang 《International Advances in Economic Research》2003,9(2):152-162
This study examines motivation and stock market reactions of firms announcing earnings in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) after
filing with the Security Exchange Commission (SEC). Most firms announce earnings in the WSJ before SEC filing. Firms that
reverse this sequence are voluntarily delaying public earnings announcements. The authors find that these firms are not only
poor financial performers but also engage in earnings managements. They are delaying their WSJ announcements to postpone announcing
bad news. The authors find significant stock price reactions to both the SEC filing and the WSJ announcement. The price reaction
to earnings is incomplete at the SEC filings. The market continues reacting to firms' subsequent WSJ announcements as if the
SEC filing fails to communicate earnings information to some investors. 相似文献
119.
Abstract. This paper estimates the impact of interest rate shocks on regional output in Germany over the period from 1970 to 2000. We use a vector autoregression (VAR) model to obtain impulse responses, which reveal differences in the output responses to monetary policy shocks across ten German provinces. Next, we investigate whether these differences can be related to structural features of the regional economies, such as industry mix, firm size, bank size and openness. An additional analysis of the volatility of real GDP growth for the period 1992–2000 includes the Eastern provinces. We also present evidence on the interrelationship between firm size and industry, and compare our measure of firm size with those used in previous studies. We conclude that the differential regional effects of monetary policy are related to industrial composition, but not to firm size or bank size. 相似文献
120.
Synopsis It has been proposed that open thermodynamic systems will act to dissipate available energy gradients by self-organizing into
coherent structures that, with time, evolve and develop into nested hierarchies – panarchies – that adapt to internal and
external changes according to a characteristic adaptive cycle. This paper seeks to apply these ideas in the purely societal
realm by investigating the role of money in economic systems. Money represents the value embodied in goods; a value that is
separate from the exact nature of those goods. We suggest that money thereby liberates the ‘free value’ of economic desire
and that this free value has properties analogous to energy. The result is the self-organization of structures and systems
(‘econosystems’) that dissipate this ‘free value’. Econosystems act at different scales, and nested levels of econosystems
form a panarchy, having effects that can be observed. In particular, it appears that money facilitates the creation of relationships
between econosystem actors, increasing the connectedness of the econosystems that envelop those actors. We have identified
a phenomenon whereby freed social value (i.e. money) can aggregate, or pool, at a larger econosystem scale in structures such
as banks. These pools act as gradients that actors at the neighborhood scale can exploit for self-organization in the econosystem.
Thus, econosystem actors appear to be freed from thermodynamic constraints by using money as a means of self-organization.
However, because of these pools of aggregated social exergy, connectedness is increased at the larger scale of the econosystem.
The potential consequence of this dynamic is that money may act to push larger scale econosystems toward a state of heightened
vulnerability to collapse, while freeing smaller scale actors from apparent constraints. In this way, we propose that money
acts to skew information feedback loops between econosystem actors and larger scale structures such as economies and ecosystems.
相似文献