Das Paradox der Medienwirkung auf Nichtnutzer

The article presents data from a secondary analysis of the project »Wählerwanderungen und Politikverdrossenheit« from 1994. The data allow to conduct time series analysis on a day-to-day basis. The focus is agenda setting in combination with a thesis formulated by Marcus Maurer — published in Publizistik 2004 — on the paradox of media effects on non-users. In contrast to Maurer, the paper is not concerned with the methodological but the theoretical paradox: Can there be such a thing as media effects on media non-users? The hypothetical effect is analyzed in comparison of daily and less than daily TV news users. The analyzed models confirm the agenda-setting effect: The media agenda affects the public agenda at later points in time, but the public agenda does not have effects on the later media agenda. In addition, there are indirect effects on people who seldom use TV news. As they do not watch every day, there is no direct immediate effect of the media input on them. But there is a significant effect some days later, which we interprete as a consequence of conversation. The effect of the media on the daily users is passed on to less frequent users by interpersonal communication.     

Institutions and Development: The Interaction Between Trade Regime and Political System

This paper argues that an unequal distribution of political power, biased to landed elites and owners of natural resources, in combination with openness to trade is a major obstacle to development of natural resource- or land-abundant economies. We develop a two-sector general equilibrium model and show that in an oligarchic society public investments conducive to industrialization. schooling for example.are typically lower in an open than in a closed economy. Moreover, we find that, under openness to trade, development is faster in a democratic system. We also endogenize the trade regime and demonstrate that in a land-abundant economy the landed elite has an interest to support openness to trade. We present historical evidence for Southern economies in the Americas that is consistent with our theoretical results: Resistance of landed elites to mass education, comparative advantages in primary goods production in the 19th century globalization wave, and low primary school enrollment and literacy rates.     

Mortgage Payment Problem Development and Recovery: A Joint Probability Model Approach

The existing literature on mortgage default and foreclosure largely examines the development of mortgage problems (the first stage) and the possibility of recovery from such problems (the second stage) separately. Such studies may provide an incomplete picture of the development and possible resolution of mortgage problems. This paper uses the proprietary geo-coded version of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 2009 through 2013 to implement a different type of probability model. Three transitional probability equations are estimated: the likelihood of homeowners developing mortgage payment problems, the likelihood that those who develop such problems move to resolve their problems, and the conditional probability that those who develop such problems and don’t move will recover from them by other means. The coefficients from all three are combined to calculate the joint (state) probability of households having mortgage problems from which they will not recover. The analysis contains a number of unique results: changes in the mortgage front-end ratio are shown to have a substantial influence on both developing a mortgage problem and its resolution for those who do not move, 2) prior foreclosures are determined to affect the development of current mortgage problems, and 3) out-of-pocket medical expenses are found to influence both mortgage problem development and recovery. Also, the impact of policy actions are considered across several at-risk demographic groups. This experiment demonstrates that by improving the financial and mortgage characteristics, and the education level of households that actually develop mortgage problems, their predicted probability of developing mortgage problems that cannot be resolved could be reduced substantially.     

Strong uniform convergence for the estimator of the regression function under ϕ-mixing conditions

Suppose the observations (X _i,Y _i), i=1,…, n, are ϕ-mixing. The strong uniform convergence and convergence rate for the estimator of the regression function was studied by serveral authors, e.g. G. Collomb (1984), L. Gy?rfi et al. (1989). But the optimal convergence rates are not reached unless the Y _i are bounded or the E exp (a|Y _i|) are bounded for some a>0. Compared with the i.i.d. case the convergence of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator under ϕ-mixing variables needs strong moment conditions. In this paper we study the strong uniform convergence and convergence rate for the improved kernel estimator of the regression function which has been suggested by Cheng P. (1983). Compared with Theorem A in Y. P. Mack and B. Silverman (1982) or Theorem 3.3.1 in L. Gy?rfi et al. (1989), we prove the convergence for this kind of estimators under weaker moment conditions. The optimal convergence rate for the improved kernel estimator is attained under almost the same conditions of Theorem 3.3.2 in L. Gy?rfi et al. (1989). Received: September 1999     

Professor Ludwig M. Lachmann (1906-1990): Scholar, Teacher, and Austrian School Critic of Late Classical Formalism in Economics

Ludwig M. Lachmann was born in Berlin in 1906 and died in Johannesburg in 1990. For more than forty years, until his retirement in 1972, Lachmann established himself as a prominent South African economist and for a time served as head of the economics department at the University of Witwatersrand. From 1974 to 1987, he worked with Professor Israel Kirzner in New York City to give new shape and life to the older Austrian school of economics. Lachmann influenced a small army of modern Austrians to discard the elaborate formalisms of orthodox economics for a "radical subjectivism" that had its roots in the teachings of the founder of the Austrian school, Carl Menger. Here a small platoon of scholars offer their thoughts about Lachmann, his contributions to economic reasoning, and his eccentric but engaging character. First hand reports explain what their mentor taught and what his students took away. Lavoie makes the case that Lachmann's "radical subjectivism" took a rhetorical turn toward the end of Lachmann's career in New York City. In addition, Kirzner reports on his long and most productive relationship with Lachmann and provides additional insights about the seminal role of the Austrian Economics Seminar at New York University from 1985 to 1987 in giving shape to the modern Austrian revival. This article is the written version of a "Remembrance and Appreciation Session" held on June 28, 1999 at the History of Economics Society meeting at the University of North Carolina in Greensboro. It is one of an ongoing series that appears in the July issues of this journal.     

Passive Hedge Fund Replication – Beyond the Linear Case

In this paper we extend Hasanhodzic and Lo (2007) by assessing the out‐of‐sample performance of various non‐linear and conditional hedge fund replication models. We find that going beyond the linear case does not necessarily enhance the replication power. On the other hand, we find that selecting factors on the basis on an economic analysis allows for a substantial improvement in out‐of‐sample replication quality, whatever the underlying form of the factor model. Overall, we confirm the findings in Hasanhodzic and Lo (2007) that the performance of the replicating strategies is systematically inferior to that of the actual hedge funds.