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51.
    
We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
52.
    
Demand uncertainty is thought to influence irreversible capacity decisions. Suppose that local demand can be sourced from domestic (rigid) production or from (flexible) imports. This paper shows that the optimal domestic capacity is either increasing or decreasing with demand uncertainty, depending on the relative level of the costs of domestic production and imports. We test this relationship with data from the U.S. cement industry, in which the difference in marginal cost between domestic production and imports varies across local U.S. markets because cement is costly to transport over land. Industry data for 1999 to 2010 are consistent with the predictions of the model. The introduction of two technologies to the production set—one rigid and one flexible—is crucial to understanding the relationship between capacity choice and uncertainty in this industry because there is no relationship between these two variables in aggregated U.S. data. Our analysis reveals that the relationship is negative in coastal districts, and significantly more positive in landlocked districts.  相似文献   
53.
abstract Prior studies of the comparative performance of greenfields and acquisitions have advanced competing arguments, with some arguing that greenfields should outperform acquisitions because acquisitions are costlier to integrate, and others that acquisitions should outperform greenfields because greenfields suffer from a liability of newness. Moreover, while the costs of integration and the liability of newness are at their greatest during a subsidiary's first years, prior studies have tested their competing arguments on samples containing older subsidiaries. We extend these prior studies by (1) developing an institutional theory‐based framework that simultaneously considers the costs of integration and the liability of newness, (2) recognizing that both types of costs vary with the level of subsidiary integration, and (3) focusing on the stage of their life during which subsidiaries predominantly incur these costs. To measure subsidiary performance, we ask managers of Dutch multinationals how their ex ante performance expectations compare to the subsidiary's ex post performance during its first two years. Analysing a sample of 191 foreign subsidiaries and controlling for entry mode self‐selection and other factors, we find that acquisitions outperform greenfields at low and intermediate levels of subsidiary integration, but that greenfields outperform acquisitions at higher integration levels.  相似文献   
54.
    
Unit root tests, seeking mean or trend reversion, are frequently applied to panel data. We show that more powerful variants of commonly applied tests are readily available. Moreover, power gains persist when the modifications are applied to bootstrap procedures that may be employed when cross‐correlation of a rather general sort among individual panel members is suspected. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
55.
Using a unique dataset collected in 59 rural Gambian villages, we study how ethnic heterogeneity is related to the structure of four economic exchange networks: land, labour, inputs and credit. We find that different measures of village‐level ethnic fragmentation are mostly uncorrelated with network structure. At a more disaggregated level, household heads belonging to ethnic minorities are not less central than those from the predominant ethnicity in any of the networks and, at the dyadic level, the fact that two households share ethnicity is not an economically significant predictor of link formation. Our results indicate that, in the particular setting of our study, the structure of the exchange networks is better defined by other variables than ethnicity and that ethnic heterogeneity is unlikely to be a driver for sub‐optimal economic exchanges.  相似文献   
56.
This article studies the properties of optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model when the government cannot commit itself beyond the next period's capital income tax rate. We find that the results contrast markedly with those under full commitment. First, capital income tax rates are very high (65% on average versus close to zero on average under full commitment). Second, labor income taxes are rather low on average (about 12% versus a value of around 31% under full commitment). Finally, labor income taxes are quite volatile, whereas under full commitment their standard deviation is essentially zero.  相似文献   
57.
    
The former socialist countries of South East and Central Europe exhibit great variation in institutional quality. Unlike the sparse existing literature, I claim that the variation can be explained by the legacies of the Ottoman and Habsburg Empires. I identify historical legacies of the Empires, which have affected the current institutional quality of the successor states. I show empirically that the Empires' legacies are key determinants of institutional quality, and that the Habsburg successors have institutions that are more efficient in a market economy than the Ottoman successors. In contrast, I find an insignificant effect of socialism on institutional quality.  相似文献   
58.
    
The goal of this paper is to determine the factors that explain voluntary improvements in audit committee activity, independence and financial expertise, both individually and jointly, within a corporate governance environment other than those used in previous works. These audit committee characteristics have been selected because previous authors have found that these attributes improve the effectiveness of this monitoring committee. The findings included a relatively high level of the proxies of audit committee effectiveness for those companies which display the best practices in terms of their board of directors' independence and activities. At the same time, we observed a non‐linear relationship of substitution among internal control mechanisms, management ownership and audit committee characteristics.  相似文献   
59.
    
Prior research on competitive dynamics has failed to offer tools to understand distorted patterns of competition that emerge from distinct institutional and historical contexts. Our analysis suggests that a joint effect of institutional rules, governance structures, and shared cognition plays a pivotal role in firm‐level competitive behavior and capability development. We show how globally significant market positions can result from specific institutional arrangements between firms and governments, especially if coupled with interfirm contractual commitments. Our results call for more attention to these interfirm commitments that are built on formal rules and governmental support, but whose impact they yet exceed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
60.
    
This paper presents the results of an empirical study exploring the expatriate performance management systems of 16 Australian multinational firms operating in China. The results show that highly internationalized firms tend to be better at deploying the ‘hard’ components of performance management (goal‐setting and performance appraisals), and yet most firms, and in particular highly internationalized ones, are poor at managing ‘soft’ control mechanisms like training and mentoring. The results give some support for the notion that expatriate performance management takes on increased importance as a firm's international operations become more dispersed; however, it also suggests a lack of appreciation of the value of soft control mechanisms in achieving this. The study contributes to international human resource management literature by identifying the relationship between the degree of internationalization of firms and the nature of expatriate performance management.  相似文献   
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