On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity

A common practice in applied economics research consists of replacing a suspected simultaneously determined explanatory variable with its lagged value. This note demonstrates that this practice does not enable one to avoid simultaneity bias. The associated estimates are still inconsistent, and hypothesis testing is invalid. An alternative is to use lagged values of the endogenous variable in instrumental variable estimation. However, this is only an effective estimation strategy if the lagged values do not themselves belong in the respective estimating equation, and if they are sufficiently correlated with the simultaneously determined explanatory variable.     

Are free trade agreements good for the environment? A panel data analysis

This study empirically examines the relationship between free trade agreements (FTAs) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For this purpose, we use three different FTAs: the Southern Common Market, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement. These FTAs are between developing, both developing and developed, and only developed countries, respectively. Panel unit root, panel cointegration, and fully modified ordinary least squares estimations are employed to examine the long‐run relationship between GHG emissions and trade liberalization. The results indicate that the environmental effects of FTAs depend on the different agreement types. When FTAs are between only developed or developing countries, overall there is no environmental damage, and these types of FTAs can be beneficial for the environmental quality in the long run. However, when developing and developed countries are in a trade agreement, overall environmental quality decreases due to increased GHG emissions.     

Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures

Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models.     

Systematic performance differences across the manufacturing-service continuum

It is becoming clear that management theories developed for manufacturing may not be wholly applicable to service firms. Evidence suggests that economic rents tend to occur at the business level in manufacturing, whereas they arise at the corporate level in services. We address this issue in terms of the characteristics of goods and services, and their effects on the drivers of firm performance across the manufacturing-service continuum. We deduce that the effects are non-linear and vary according to whether products are tangible standardized goods, customized goods and services, or standardized intangible services.     

Contextualizing the subjectivist-objectivist debate in entrepreneurship using engineering,art, craft,and bricolage

The debate regarding the degree to which opportunities and resources are social constructions risks stagnation because it is difficult to argue that opportunities are either entirely constructed or entirely objective. In this paper we seek to contribute to this debate by introducing some overlooked aspects of the work of Lévi-Strauss (1962) as they relate to the discussion of entrepreneurial opportunities and resources. A categorization scheme of entrepreneurs based on Lévi-Strauss’ categories of art, craft, engineering and bricolage can be used to help differentiate the ways in which entrepreneurs view opportunities and resource acquisition, and how those views impact entrepreneurial action and ultimately entrepreneurial success. This contrasts with the more traditional entrepreneurship literature, which views opportunities as objective phenomena and opportunity identification and exploitation as completely rational.     

A Study of Social Network Effects on the Stock Market

Consumer confidence is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy as well as their personal financial situation. The authors measure consumer sentiment via analysis of social networks and show that such sentiment affects stock prices; specifically, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Shiller, Fischer and Freidman [1984], Fisher and Statman [2003], and Bremmer [2008] also examine the influence of consumer sentiment, measured from Conference Board data, on the stock market. The authors add to this literature by creating a measure of consumer confidence by utilizing Twitter data and by examining the relationship between our measure of consumer sentiment and the S&P 500 and the Dow. They implemented lexicographic analysis of Twitter data over a three-month period and found that talk intensity of economic issues not only causes shifts in the daily stock market prices, but also has a significant negative effect.     

Religious prohibitions against usury

Roman Catholic usury prohibitions created an explicit negative “tie-in” between salvation and consumption lending at interest. We view the prohibitions as a response to severe consumption smoothing problems created by the substitutability of capital market transactions for traditional smoothing mechanisms—informal pooling and charity. We demonstrate consistency between our model and the broad features of the Roman Catholic chronology of prohibitions.     

Do university executive development programs pay off?

University executive development programs are solidly entrenched, but questions have been raised concerning their cost-and benefits. A study of large U.S. business corporations reveals that most lack established policies concerning selection of the participant and the choice of a program. In addition, measurement of individual and group change related to the program is neglected. Nevertheless, companies report favorably on participants' job performance. The participants themselves feel they have gained status, but sometimes are ready to implement changes for which the organization is not prepared. University programs do not seem to be in any immediate trouble, but need to develop and maintain closer relations with participating organizations and to become more deeply involved in evaluation.     

The Interrelation between Audit Quality and Managerial Reporting Choices and Its Effects on Financial Reporting Quality

Two distinct lines of research have been dedicated to empirically testing how financial reporting quality (measured as the earnings response coefficient or ERC) is associated with management's choice of reporting bias and with audit quality. However, researchers have yet to consider how ERCs are affected by either the auditor's reaction to changes in the manager's reporting bias or the manager's reaction to changes in audit quality. Our study provides theoretical guidance on these interrelations and how changes in the manager's or the auditor's incentives affect both reporting bias and audit quality. Specifically, when the manager's cost (benefit) of reporting bias increases (decreases), we find that expected bias decreases, inducing the auditor to react by reducing audit quality. Because we also find that the association between expected audit quality and ERCs is always positive, changes in managerial incentives for biased reporting lead to a positive association between ERCs and expected reporting bias. When the cost of auditing decreases or the cost of auditor liability increases, we find that expected audit quality increases, inducing the manager to react by decreasing reporting bias. In this case, changes in the costs of audit quality lead to a negative association between ERCs and expected reporting bias. Finally, we demonstrate the impact of our theoretical findings by focusing on the empirical observations documented in the extant literature on managerial ownership and accounting expertise on the audit committee. In light of our framework, we provide new interpretations of these empirical observations and new predictions for future research.