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This paper examines the role of nonfundamentals‐based sentiment in house price dynamics, including the well‐documented volatility and persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate sentiment's effect, we employ survey‐based indicators that proxy for the sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand side), home builders (supply side), and lenders (credit suppliers). After orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundamental variables, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing sentiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appreciation in subsequent quarters, above and beyond the impact of changes in lagged price changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity. More specifically, a one‐standard‐deviation shock to market sentiment is associated with a 32–57 basis point increase in real house price appreciation over the next two quarters. These price effects are large relative to the average real price appreciation of 71 basis points per quarter observed over the full sample period. Moreover, housing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persistent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment and house prices can create feedback effects that contribute to the persistence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cycles. 相似文献
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NICOLETTA BERARDI ERWAN GAUTIER HERVÉ LE BIHAN 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2015,47(8):1465-1502
Using microprice data, we document new facts on price rigidity in France: (i) each month 20.1% of prices are changed, which compares to 24.1% in the United States—excluding sales, however, the fraction of prices modified each month is about the same in France and in the United States (around 17%); (ii) the distribution of price changes is quite dispersed; (iii) the frequencies of price increases and decreases contribute a lot to inflation variations, and price increases are more frequent in January (even when sales are excluded); (iv) sales contribute significantly to the volatility of inflation but play a minor role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations to prices; and (v) during the Great Recession patterns of price adjustment were only slightly modified. 相似文献
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BENOÎT LE MAUX 《Economics & Politics》2009,21(2):201-231
This article examines how policy-makers solve problems within local representative democracies. It will be argued that politicians cannot undertake an exhaustive search of all possible policy choices; instead, they might use an incremental strategy such as the hill-climbing heuristic. These possibilities will be formalized using the median voter model as an analytical framework. The corresponding models will then be estimated over a set of French jurisdictions (the départements ). The empirical results lend support to the hill-climbing model , given that: (1) for social welfare and secondary school expenditures, the influence of the past is significant; (2) a pure model of incrementalism, without any exogenous variables, is not appropriate for explaining the behavior of departmental council members; and (3) the impact of the past is more significant and stronger when expenditure levels are higher. 相似文献
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为践行"效率与公平并重"的收入分配方针及解决农民在失去土地后的权益保障问题,综合运用文献检索与综合分析方法、调查研究法、观察研究法,从法理学角度分析了失去农用地和失去宅基地农民的权益受损类型,并有针对性的提出了相应的保障对策,为更好的保障农民权益提供了一定的依据和借鉴。 相似文献
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勒孚作 《安徽工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2009,26(4):88-90
主位结构和信息结构在听力测试语篇理解中具有重要作用,认识和把握这两个结构,有利于听者测试时掌握语篇的要点和新信息。 相似文献
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发展生态农业:广西恭城新农村建设的经验与启示 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文介绍了广西恭城县立足生态农业建设新农村的做法和经验,分析了恭城作为山区少数民族贫困县通过发展生态经济铺就新农村建设之路的意义和启示,认为恭城的经验可为我国中西部地区新农村建设提供有益借鉴。 相似文献
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PHILIPPE DE DONDER MICHEL LE BRETON EUGENIO PELUSO 《Journal of Public Economic Theory》2012,14(6):879-909
We study majority voting over a bidimensional policy space when the voters’ type space is either uni‐ or bidimensional. We study two voting procedures widely used in the literature. The Stackelberg (ST) procedure assumes that votes are taken one dimension at a time according to an exogenously specified sequence. The Kramer–Shepsle (KS) procedure also assumes that votes are taken separately on each dimension, but not in a sequential way. A vector of policies is a Kramer–Shepsle equilibrium if each component coincides with the majority choice on this dimension given the other components of the vector. We study the existence and uniqueness of the ST and KS equilibria, and we compare them, looking for example at the impact of the ordering of votes for ST and identifying circumstances under which ST and KS equilibria coincide. In the process, we state explicitly the assumptions on the utility function that are needed for these equilibria to be well‐behaved. We especially stress the importance of single‐crossing conditions, and we identify two variants of these assumptions: a marginal version that is imposed on all policy dimensions separately, and a joint version whose definition involves both policy dimensions. 相似文献