Wachstumsaspekte des schweizerischen Steuersystems

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Announcements

Abstract

In this study we examined the effect of specialization on behavioral choice among Wisconsin goose hunters, who were able to choose a relatively easy hunt at the Horicon Marsh or a more complex hunt in the exterior zones. Past research has shown that more specialized recreationists have differing motives, attitudes, satisfaction levels, crowding perceptions, environmental preferences, and management preferences. Our goal in this study was to extend this research to behavioral choices and to learn more about the dimensions of specialization in goose hunting. Specialization did not predict behavioral choice among the sample. Specialization, as measured by past experience, commitment, media involvement, club membership, and preferred hunting style, did not differ significantly when comparing Horicon goose hunters and exterior zone hunters. Novice hunters hunted alongside experienced hunters, and behavioral choice appeared to be more a function of structural constraint than attitu‐dinal preference. Specialization did explain differences in hunter judgments of quality, correlating negatively with shooting and bagging and positively with social and natural components of a quality experience. These findings indicate that although the specialization framework can effectively predict attitudinal differences among participants in a given activity, it is less efficient at predicting behavioral choice. Consequently, specialization researchers need to be cautious about inferring levels of specialization from observations of locational choice.     

The impact of Financial Times Deutschland news on stock prices: post-announcement drifts and inattention of investors

In this paper, we analyze the impact of Financial Times Deutschland (FTD) news on stock prices and trading volumes. Based on a sample of all news about German DAX, MDAX, and SDAX companies published in the news section of the FTD between 2006 and 2010, our results show that articles that contain positive (negative) information are associated with significantly positive (negative) abnormal returns and abnormal trading volumes around their publication. Furthermore, our results show an initial underreaction to these articles and subsequent post-publication drift. Based on the inattention hypothesis, we show that high-attention news (proxied by abnormal trading volume) almost instantaneously moves stock prices to their new valuation levels, whereas the price adjustment process takes much longer following low-attention news. Our results also hold within multivariate regressions where we additionally control for stock-specific characteristics (e.g., institutional ownership, size, and price-to-book ratio) as well as other attention-grabbing events (as measured by ad hoc announcements and cover-page news articles). Finally, we show that results primarily hold in the non-crisis period.     

Using Housing Futures in Mortgage Research

Expectations of housing prices play an important role in real estate research. Despite their importance, obtaining a reasonable proxy for such expectations is a challenge. The existing literature on mortgage research either does not include housing expectation proxies in empirical models, or uses “backward-looking” proxies such as past housing appreciation or time series forecasts based on past housing appreciation. This paper proposes to use the transaction prices of Case-Shiller housing futures as an alternative “forward-looking” proxy. As an example, we compare the performances of four different expectation proxies in explaining mortgage default behavior. The loan level analysis shows that the futures based expectation proxy outperforms other proxies by having the highest regression model fit and being the only proxy that shows a significant negative effect on mortgage default behavior, as theory suggests. Out of sample predictions also show that futures have better prediction accuracy than other proxies. In addition, the paper shows that futures contain additional information that is not present in the backward-looking proxies.     

Toward Closing the Loop between Infrastructure Investments and Societal and Economic Impacts

The long-term value proposition of transportation infrastructure investments can be significantly distorted if the short-term effects of spatial externalities on land use patterns, economic expansions, and migration patterns are not properly included in the analysis. Some of these effects occur over a short period of time and soon after the investment materializes, whereas others take longer and follow more steady patterns. In this article, we develop a novel dynamical model of a primal society with constructs that are specifically geared toward transportation infrastructure expansions and investments. The model quantifies the impact of these expansions on some key performance indicators and on the overall utility and production capacity of the society. We argue that traditional analytical models that work on the premises of stationary behavior and a static response of society to changes in infrastructure do not correctly capture these effects. The land use patterns and spatial expansion computed from the model are validated against existing theory on land use. Preliminary results on how to use the model for value proposition analysis are also presented using simple case studies.     

Patent-based inventor profiles as a basis for human resource decisions in research and development

Profiles of inventors' technological competence are a valuable source of information for decision-making in research and development (R&D) management, e.g. concerning inventor assessment, human resource development and R&D team-building. In the following exposition, a new method of inventor profiling will be put forward, which is based in particular on semantic patent analysis and multidimensional scaling. First, in the course of semantic patent analysis, specialized software, equipped with a natural language processor, reads the patent text transferring the contents into a subject–action–object–format (SAO). The extracted SAO structures are then used to create similarity matrices for patents or patent sets, respectively, according to a specific similarity value. Subsequently, an inventor competence map can be produced by means of multidimensional scaling.
The benefits of this method for R&D-related issues in human resource management will be illustrated by the example of a German mechanical engineering company. Two distinct types of profiles were generated and tested: (i) the profile of a single key inventor and (ii) a profile of key inventor sets. The single key inventor profile gives information on the range of competence, i.e. the homogeneity or heterogeneity of a certain inventor's competences, providing far more detailed insights than resorting to bibliographic data like international patent classification (IPC) classes or citations, whereas the latter kind of profile establishes the position of a certain key inventor in relation to others, helping to highlight specific groups of inventors and their domains. These results are clearly apt to support human resource management.     

The role of “other information” in analysts’ forecasts in understanding stock return volatility

This study identifies “other information” in analysts’ forecasts as a legitimate proxy for future cash flows and examines its incremental role in explaining stock return volatility. We suggest that “other information” contains information about fundamentals beyond that reflected in current financial statements and reflects firms’ fundamentals on a more timely basis than dividends or earnings. Using standardized regressions, we find volatility increases when current “other information” is more uncertain and increases more in response to unfavorable news compared to favorable news. Variance decomposition analysis shows that the variance contribution of “other information” dominates that of expected-return news. The incremental role of “other information” is at least half of the effect of earnings in explaining future volatility. The results are more pronounced for firms with poor information environments. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including “other information” as an additional cash-flow proxy in future studies of stock prices and volatility.     

Mandatory dividend rules: Do they make it harder for firms to invest?

What are the costs and benefits of mandatory dividend rules? On the one hand, they make it harder for controlling shareholders to divert corporate assets. On the other hand, they reduce the internal funds available for firms to invest, possibly leading to the loss of valuable projects. To assess this trade-off, we look at investment and dividend decisions in a sample of public firms in Brazil. We show that a significant fraction of these firms use loopholes of Brazil's mandatory dividend rules to avoid paying dividends. And yet, the dividend rules are effective. They help explain why the average dividend yield in Brazil is higher than in the U.S., without making it harder for firms to invest.     

Momentum strategies of German mutual funds

The existence of the momentum effect in stock returns has been documented for the US (e.g., Jegadeesh and Titman in J. Finance 48(1), 65–91, 1993) and many other national equity markets worldwide (e.g., Griffin et al. in J. Finance 58(6), 2515–2547, 2003). However, little is known about the active employment of momentum strategies among institutional investors outside the US. This paper provides first evidence of momentum behavior among German mutual funds. We find the fund trades to follow stock returns on an aggregated institutional level. Moreover, we detect significant momentum behavior among funds with a European and global equity focus, as well as among funds predominantly investing in Asia. In contrast, German funds do not seem to engage in momentum strategies when trading domestic stocks. While only half the funds in our sample trade in accordance with past returns, 66 % of the funds within the largest size quintile follow momentum strategies. Finally, we do not find momentum trading funds to outperform the other funds.     

How the German government responded to the financial,economic and fiscal crises

This paper explains the German government's response to the financial, economic and fiscal crises. It covers the financial crisis in 2008 when banks were supported (SoFFin), the economic crisis in 2009, and the fiscal crisis of increasing state debts and budget deficits which caused the German government to cut spending (Sparpaket) in 2010. The author looks at the contents of the government's responses, but also at the political and administrative aspects of the government's decision-making processes.